As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[mahk_webstah]

  On 1/17/2025 at 5:42 PM, OceanStWx said:

I started forecasting with the Eta and the AVN, which was the style at the time.

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LAF?

[dryslot]

  On 1/17/2025 at 5:41 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Definitely a red flag for the big amped solutions. I’m still hedging compromise at this point. 

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Yeah, Not liking this, Hopefully its the east goalpost and the RGEM is the west one, Then send the GFS thru the uprights.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Pretty insane this close in. Some models spitting out close to a foot and amped west while the euro remains way East and weak.

 

Gfs is double digits for places like ORH while the euro is a couple inches across the board for most 

[weathafella]

  On 1/17/2025 at 5:43 PM, Prismshine Productions said:

so we got:

Euro/nam/Ukie

vs, literally everything else

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Not exactly.  Euro/nam/uncle/gfs/shitcon vs cmc/reggie

[Go Kart Mozart]

  On 1/17/2025 at 5:43 PM, Prismshine Productions said:

so we got:

Euro/nam/Ukie

vs, literally everything else

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Gun to my head....I choose euro et al

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 1/17/2025 at 5:46 PM, weathafella said:

Not exactly.  Euro/nam/uncle/gfs/shitcon vs cmc/reggie

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GFS and Euro are pretty different

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/17/2025 at 5:42 PM, OceanStWx said:

I started forecasting with the Eta and the AVN, which was the style at the time.

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Don’t forget the FWC MOS….I think that’s what everyone called the NGM MOS back then. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

You'd have to think EPS amps up, but then again ???

[dryslot]

  On 1/17/2025 at 5:43 PM, mahk_webstah said:

18z should be interesting for both. Hard to believe all of the other guidance would be so off, but you never know. Are there certain models that work better with storms on Arctic fronts?

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I would think the hi res ones would, Euro should fall in that category though, Its in the high 990mb range whereas some of the other models have it in the 980's as it moves up here and off to the NE.

[George001]

  On 1/17/2025 at 5:46 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Pretty insane this close in. Some models spitting out close to a foot and amped west while the euro remains way East and weak.

 

Gfs is double digits for places like ORH while the euro is a couple inches across the board for most 

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Realistically I could get anything from rain to a couple inches of fluff to 12-18 inches of snow. Not too common to see that wide a range of possible outcomes this close in. 

[Damage In Tolland]

The Euro solution would be as boring as possible. Even though it did throw back more precip nw . Hopefully it’s wrong 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/17/2025 at 5:43 PM, Prismshine Productions said:

so we got:

Euro/nam/Ukie

vs, literally everything else

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I mean, caution warranted in that matchup. 
We will know tomorrow.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/17/2025 at 5:48 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

The Euro solution would be as boring as possible. Even it did throw back more precip nw . Hopefully it’s wrong 

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It’s got me nervous.  I’m slightly shook. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/17/2025 at 5:50 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It’s got me nervous.  I’m slightly shook. 

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I think most here are expecting it to move NW to some degree. Certainly with the op having been SE of its ensembles 

[Snowcrazed71]

At this point, the good news is there's a storm that's going to happen. It's now a matter of are we going to get six plus inches? Are we going to get 3-6 in? 

[SouthCoastMA]

  On 1/17/2025 at 5:41 PM, Prismshine Productions said:

whomp.

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looks good, thanks 

[dendrite]

  On 1/17/2025 at 5:44 PM, mahk_webstah said:

LAF?

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LFM

[UnitedWx]

  On 1/17/2025 at 5:42 PM, OceanStWx said:

I started forecasting with the Eta and the AVN, which was the style at the time.

 

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Still waiting on the DiFax (or whatever it was called) to finish printing?

[mahk_webstah]

  On 1/17/2025 at 5:55 PM, dendrite said:

LFM

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Caught 78

[Prismshine Productions]

EPS shifted SE

[ineedsnow]

  On 1/17/2025 at 6:00 PM, Prismshine Productions said:

EPS shifted SE

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ya something has got to give soon

[ineedsnow]

[CoastalWx]

Here we go again with a jacked GFS and a flaccid euro.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/17/2025 at 5:41 PM, Prismshine Productions said:

whomp.

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There's my 2-5".

[weathafella]

Could be a burp by the euro family.  We’ve seen that close in a few times.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/17/2025 at 6:03 PM, CoastalWx said:

Here we go again with a jacked GFS and a flaccid euro.

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ya but we are 48 hours out this time.. GFS fully caved by like 96-108 last time .. This is weird 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Maybe the Euro AI can save us

[MJO812]

  On 1/17/2025 at 6:00 PM, Prismshine Productions said:

EPS shifted SE

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[dryslot]

  On 1/17/2025 at 6:05 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Maybe the Euro AI can save us

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Skynet?

[dendrite]

  On 1/17/2025 at 6:08 PM, dryslot said:

Skynet?

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What is skynet?