As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

OHHH MY LORD. GFS Bufkit for ORH.....holy moly. BDL sucked but ORH....oh God this is gold. 

70 microbars crosshair sig will do some quick damage on the snow pack front. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Feeling good about both pits.  Pit 1 looks best, but my gut tells me Maine will do okay when all is said and done.

I'm hoping the GFS is more right this go round.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Euro late again

That's how you know we're gonna get thwacked  -

We did an analysis back in UML and found that there is a positive correlation between dissemination delays, vs subsequent verification of registered impacts from an event that's in play.

Not sure that's still the case ... and back in the day, 1990s, modeling was still not a huge sample size yet ... so probably mostly for fun.   But to this day, whenever we don't get to see a model run because of a comm's related issue, I cannot help but feel better about our chances.   haha

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

70 microbars crosshair sig will do some quick damage on the snow pack front. 

Not sure if we can expect that to verify but that would be some obscene snow rates for a time. I'm actually a bit shocked bufkit isn't spitting out greater hourly snowfall during that window. But there is also quite a difference in ratio/totals with cobb05 versus cobb11. cobb05 is pushing 25:1 for ratio lol

[Damage In Tolland]

There are quite a few NW members on the Canadian GEPS. Op is farthest NW thankfully , but it  does cause some concern that Reggie is not going that far SE 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's how you know we're gonna get thwacked  -

We did an analysis back in UML and found that there is a positive correlation between dissemination delays, vs subsequent verification of registered impacts from an event that's in play.

Not sure that's still the case ... and back in the day, 1990s, modeling was still not a huge sample size yet ... so probably mostly for fun.   But to this day, whenever we don't get to see a model run because of a comm's related issue, I cannot help but feel better about our chances.   haha

12z runs at 12:08pm, It started today at 12:15pm, So a slight delay.

[tavwtby]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

that's about where I'd expect the best DGZ, from around HPN up to NEMA should rock if it plays out right

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

Here as well, but lets get everyone involved

no thanks, i only care about MBY. i am selfish like that

1 hour ago, Bryan63 said:

Meh, this went from a nice little event to nothing down here. With me off of work and son home from school was hoping for a little snow day but I guess rain will have to do.

Beer?

[UnitedWx]

15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

OHHH MY LORD. GFS Bufkit for ORH.....holy moly. BDL sucked but ORH....oh God this is gold. 

Pro tip, BDL ALWAYS sucks

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, SJonesWX said:

 

Beer?

Never, ever! Freaking gross

[weathafella]

Euro not biting on the trend.  Of the credible globals it is the eastern goalpost.

[ineedsnow]

Euro = meh

[ineedsnow]

west of 6z and a tad stronger   I think its going to crap on itself one of these runs

[Prismshine Productions]

big shift west with the low at hr60 compared to 0z

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro = meh

Let’s see what it robot says

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro throws higher Qpf father NW for @JC-CT

[dryslot]

EE rule in effect.

[weathafella]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro throws higher Qpf father NW for @JC-CT

It’s 3-6 on the euro at best.

[Prismshine Productions]

Just now, dryslot said:

EE rule in effect.

Euro and Ensembles?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Euro and Ensembles?

Euro/ETA which is the NAM.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

Euro and Ensembles?

ECMWF and Eta (the old name for the NAM).

[weatherwiz]

I wish the 700mb velocity products were working on weathermodels. At least 500mb vorticity is working but of course the parameters which matter most aren't. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

EE rule in effect.

Definitely a red flag for the big amped solutions. I’m still hedging compromise at this point. 

[Prismshine Productions]

whomp.

[OceanStWx]

I started forecasting with the Eta and the AVN, which was the style at the time.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

whomp.

other than the accordion snowhole, pretty close to BOX map

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro = meh

Red Flag

[Prismshine Productions]

so we got:

Euro/nam/Ukie

vs, literally everything else

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Euro/ETA which is the NAM.

18z should be interesting for both. Hard to believe all of the other guidance would be so off, but you never know. Are there certain models that work better with storms on Arctic fronts?

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

other than the accordion snowhole, pretty close to BOX map

That's just mean