As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[weatherwiz]

Have to wait on bufkit but looking around on alot of soundings one common theme I'm seeing is alot of the max lift seems to be well below the DGZ. The GFS also may have to distinct areas of banding going on. 

[Kitz Craver]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

14-18” of paste from here to there. I’d sign up and call it a winter 

Man, a good amount of high water content snow sticking to everything and immediately getting locked in with a deep freeze would certainly look like deep winter.

[CarverWX]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not playing that game again like the storm before Xmas. Not investing and whatever crud we get at the end will be gravy 

We will have an inch of solid ice for the next few weeks or until the next rain storm

[dryslot]

Its in the low 20's here when the snow is falling.

[ineedsnow]

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

how the heck do you call 14-18 from like 1 inch of qpf "paste"

Probably first half inch paste then high ratio fluff.  Very familiar setup. Further east then Kev is big paster 

[weathafella]

Close in and the models still in their respective corners.  One would hope we’d have consensus by tonight but it won’t surprise me of a chunk go down with the ship.  Hoping for a gfs solution imby.

[mahk_webstah]

17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's definitely not a pure slider. The Q vectors show that the band is going to try and twist a bit.

So maybe more of a banana shape (there are meds for that) than arrow straight.

we bananna

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its in the low 20's here when the snow is falling.

Seems like the Dewars nips are already falling there this morning?

[ineedsnow]

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like the Dewars nips are already falling there this morning?

Jaegar.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Probably first half inch paste then high ratio fluff.  Very familiar setup. Further east then Kev is big paster 

IJD ends up with 8.7 you can see the ratios change.

[OceanStWx]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Have to wait on bufkit but looking around on alot of soundings one common theme I'm seeing is alot of the max lift seems to be well below the DGZ. The GFS also may have to distinct areas of banding going on. 

GFS DGZ RH/omega is definitely collocated NW CT through @dendrite and then @dryslot

[HIPPYVALLEY]

13 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

4-8 for us in the vallley?

 

Yeah, as of now I would lean towards the higher end of that.

Depending on where this ends up we could catch some of the western deformation zone.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

GFS DGZ RH/omega is definitely collocated NW CT through @dendrite and then @dryslot

Death band

[Sn0waddict]

 

 

No members as amped as the CMC, and even the GFS OP seems to be on the western edge of its ensemble mean.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, as of now I would lean towards the higher end of that.

Depending on where this ends up we could catch some of the western deformation zone.

You just told me trends East and 2-4 there 

[RDRY]

Off topic, but that Tuesday-Wednesday storm would be historic. GGEM putting down a foot all to way to the Louisiana Gulf.

[TalcottWx]

4 hours ago, UnitedWx said:

Welcome back! We know snow is likely when you pop in lol

Thank you, sir. 

Looks like 5-10" deal right now. 

[Connecticut Appleman]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Just an example from northwest Connecticut but that is a quite unstable between 700-500mb. You maximize lift into the DGZ with this look at you're going to get a hefty band. I bet you would see a swath of max totals up around a foot if that verified

Litchfield County Approved

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

you shall only use the messenger name when it's a se movement 

Yeah incorrect application of the messenger shuffle term…it’s a SE term and it usually happens once inside of 36h (frequently inside of 24)

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Death band

I'm seeing 20 -ubar/s, so if that is right in the middle of the a saturated DGZ that's a good warning signature.

[Prismshine Productions]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

IJD ends up with 8.7 you can see the ratios change.

what site is that?

[weatherwiz]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

GFS DGZ RH/omega is definitely collocated NW CT through @dendrite and then @dryslot

That makes sense. Ultimately the banding in this one will surely be farther north and west than projected, unless we really see the system crank as it is lifting northeast and we see it collapse towards the center. But with this I am starting to buy the idea of two banding signals which means there will be trouble in between. 

I also kind of use alot of hesitation with these point-and-click soundings. I've found you have to pay very close attention because sometimes the soundings generated are erroneous. Doesn't seem to happen alot but something I always note.

[ineedsnow]

[TalcottWx]

18 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

4-8 for us in the vallley?

 

0 if you post kutchie. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

I'm seeing 20 -ubar/s, so if that is right in the middle of the a saturated DGZ that's a good warning signature.

When I load up bufkit at noon I am hoping to see some values as high as 25-30...that's what the clothes start flying off. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Solid

[Bryan63]

Meh, this went from a nice little event to nothing down here. With me off of work and son home from school was hoping for a little snow day but I guess rain will have to do.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Bryan63 said:

Meh, this went from a nice little event to nothing down here. With me off of work and son home from school was hoping for a little snow day but I guess rain will have to do.

Wouldn't go that far yet.