As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:18 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Standing hard and firm 

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That has to be some kind of HR violation.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:32 PM, CoastalWx said:

It's like a coating for you.

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I wasn’t saying it like I liked it. I liked 6z and yesterday’s runs. 00z and this would bring rains to Maines 

[Prismshine Productions]

H5 at 42 looks similar to Reggie

[dryslot]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:42 PM, JC-CT said:

well, GFS definitely made some big adjustments with the early shortwave over Quebec and the overall trough orientation. sheeeeit

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From what i see i don't think there will be much if any of a correction east, May hold serve.

[ineedsnow]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:46 PM, dryslot said:

From what i see i don't think there will be much if any of a correction east, May hold serve.

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looks a little west at hr51

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:26 PM, dendrite said:

Centah Hahbah

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Scooter and his friends hanging at the lake.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:46 PM, dryslot said:

From what i see i don't think there will be much if any of a correction east, May hold serve.

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definitely not east. if anything, it's moving west

[Damage In Tolland]

Gonna be some tail pipe exhaust sucking , bridge and cliff diving shortly in this thread I think 

[dryslot]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:47 PM, ineedsnow said:

looks a little west at hr51

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That would equate to noise.

[UnitedWx]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:29 PM, SJonesWX said:

that's pretty much perfect for up here

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Here as well, but lets get everyone involved

[ORH_wxman]

Looks a tick east at 57 but very close to 06z

[MJO812]

[ineedsnow]

wow crushed here

[CoastalWx]

Paste job here. 

[Sn0waddict]

Pretty identical to 6z as far as track.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:48 PM, dryslot said:

That would equate to noise.

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pretty big changes up north, early in the run

[dryslot]

Don't see much here at the surface, Looks like it held serve pretty much.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:49 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Looks a tick east at 57 but very close to 06z

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Then maybe just a tick west again at 60h…essentially the same track. Wobbling every 3h. 

[UnitedWx]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:49 PM, MJO812 said:

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Take!

[Sn0waddict]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:50 PM, Sn0waddict said:

Pretty identical to 6z as far as track.

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Living on the edge. Any further west and we get into trouble 

[ineedsnow]

jackpot that run I take!

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:50 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Then maybe just a tick west again at 60h…essentially the same track. Wobbling every 3h. 

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Weebles?

[Ginx snewx]

Total paste hit on GFS then freeze that up.

[ineedsnow]

we kuchie with 17 here 

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:50 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Then maybe just a tick west again at 60h…essentially the same track. Wobbling every 3h. 

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I really like the mid levels closing and deepening overhead. 850 mb track is near perfect for a 128 to coastal Maine stripe.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:50 PM, JC-CT said:

pretty big changes up north, early in the run

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Pretty big?

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:50 PM, dryslot said:

Don't see much here at the surface.

 

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When looping it vs 06z the track is very similar but the QPF field might be slightly more compact on the 12z run. Prob mostly noise. 

[weatherwiz]

That's a hefty banding signature on the GFS. Actually almost looks like there could be some dry slot concerns for southeastern CT/RI/far SE MA but those drier H7 RH values are probably coming in as the heaviest QPF is moving out anyways so probably not much of a big deal. But that is also quite an unstable look...pretty good MAUL signal looking at some soundings. Big crushing 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:53 PM, OceanStWx said:

I really like the mid levels closing and deepening overhead. 850 mb track is near perfect for a 128 to coastal Maine stripe.

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Yeah you might almost get a pseudo-pivot on that. It’s moving quickly but as this thing tries to scoot a bit ENE late in the game with the deepening mid-levels, someone could get hammered for 2-4 hours. 

[ineedsnow]