As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[dendrite]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:23 PM, CoastalWx said:

I'm on a hiatus of those verify.

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Centah Hahbah

[mahk_webstah]

Damn, that’s a fast moving rapid deepener one to 2 in./h and windy.  That would be a lot of fun.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:26 PM, dryslot said:

A wellness check will probably be in order.

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Send the effing seal team 6 if that happens.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:26 PM, dendrite said:

Centah Hahbah

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Could care less there. Won't be there anytime soon.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:18 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Freaking Reginald . Standing hard and firm 

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You absolutely don’t want that to verify, unless you want rain and slop of course 

[SJonesWX]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:12 PM, dryslot said:

Yikes, Reggie hugs the Maine coast

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that's pretty much perfect for up here

[Prismshine Productions]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:28 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You absolutely don’t want that to verify, unless you want rain and slop of course 

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ski resorts would be busy next week if Reggie is right

[Heisy]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:21 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I was expecting Canadian suite to come east a bit like 06z did….someone is going to be quite incorrect inside of 60 hours. 

What’s your experience tell you here in regards to the rgem/cmc doing this?


.

[CoastalWx]

These are wild differences this close in. It's crazy to me.

[mahk_webstah]

Building a bullwark against East trends for us up here. It’ll probably come back east enough in the end to keep at least Scott happy if not, Brett.

[weatherwiz]

It looks like it may be slower with the south/eastward progression of the front? 

[CoastalWx]

I find when Reggie is stubborn it can be onto something, but I've seen it fall flat too. We shook though. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:21 PM, JC-CT said:

you do realize you don't want that verbatim solution

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I do 

[mahk_webstah]

I interpret the Canadian models as basically likely to be at least partially right. It may end up that the GFS is the compromise and final solution.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:32 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I do 

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It's like a coating for you.

[CoastalWx]

Actually an inch for Kev and maybe 7" for Jay in the valley. That would be funny.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:32 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I do 

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You a double D guy, eh?

drizzle and dryslot

[BRSno]

Don't worry eastern friends, I land in Boston right before the 18z runs and then the adjustments back east can begin

[Sey-Mour Snow]

The next 25 minutes will be fun in here. Either mass celebrations or fights breaking out. 

[Cyclone-68]

We’ll find out if Lucy is going to pull the football away again. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:31 PM, CoastalWx said:

I find when Reggie is stubborn it can be onto something, but I've seen it fall flat too. We shook though. 

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That was my worry this morning . I know someone yesterday said to toss it but it’s a good model . 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

The next 25 minutes will be fun in here, either mass celebrations or fights breaking out.. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:33 PM, JC-CT said:

You a double D guy, eh?

drizzle and dryslot

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I think it will ultimately track near or just outside the Cape

[JC-CT]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:39 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I think it will ultimately track near or just outside the Cape

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certainly possible

[J Paul Gordon]

The ground will be white here after it's over. Whether a trace or 6 inches depends. But it's going to be damn cold afterward no matter what.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:30 PM, Heisy said:

What’s your experience tell you here in regards to the rgem/cmc doing this?


.

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I’ve seen them be very stubborn before and then cave late. Esp RGEM. But they can still be directionally correct in the mean….in other words, the flatter models will trend toward them. 
 

GEFS and EPS don’t have any members as amped as them so I think the RGEM/GGEM eventually come east at least somewhat. I’m still going with a compromise. 

[JC-CT]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:40 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I’ve seen them be very stubborn before and then cave late. Esp RGEM. But they can still be directionally correct in the mean….in other words, the flatter models will trend toward them. 
 

GEFS and EPS don’t have any members as amped as them so I think the RGEM/GGEM eventually come east at least somewhat. I’m still going with a compromise. 

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this close in, don't they typically all move together along with the OP? I've always found the spread to be lacking within 3 days or so.

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/17/2025 at 2:55 PM, The 4 Seasons said:

I dont know what the deal is with uptons new map. looks like updated graphics but the ranges...

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That is weird. I thought those ranges were hard coded. That looks more like the goalposts than a range of expected totals.

[UnitedWx]

  On 1/17/2025 at 2:55 PM, The 4 Seasons said:

I dont know what the deal is with uptons new map. looks like updated graphics but the ranges...

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Just more of this maybe?

[JC-CT]

well, GFS definitely made some big adjustments with the early shortwave over Quebec and the overall trough orientation. sheeeeit