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As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

BZ is in the house.

weathafella
weathafella

This is shaping up nicely.  If it holds never doubt me as a thread starter.

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Probably a good time to remind everyone:  

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

thats insane. i was just looking at the big storm on Feb 13th 2024 and your area barely got 3-4" and the same with previous Jan storm. So you must have been at what like 13" for the season ish?

Yep, been ground zero for curb stomping. Everywhere around me has had more. Just one of those things.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, FXWX said:

The last thing the vast majority of the forum needs to be worried about is surface temps.  Any marginal surface temps at onset will vaporize quickly... mid-January during a long running cold pattern with solidly cold / frozen ground surfaces losing much to melting at onset is not an issue.

Zero limitation on snow accumulation unless it is straight up 36 F and it's mixed cat paws.   Soaked cotton ball snow type would stick.   I've seen 8" at 34.5 with snow that's borderline silvery. 

This concern is part of the mania cycling that can be identified in the addicted model cinema user's stages of stoned.   It's like they can't take an optimistic look, because they need the downer to make the next model run a more potent high.  LOL  

 

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep, been ground zero for curb stomping. Everywhere around me has had more. Just one of those things.

welcome to my world, even NYC has more than me. 

I think we will do well this system. It was only 2 days ago, this thing was out to Bermuda and a complete whiff on almost every model, looked like a lost cause perhaps. 

Even the amped GEM, didnt even have a storm on 12Z Tuesday, it wasn't until 00Z it latched on to something

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

welcome to my world, even NYC has more than me. 

I think we will do well this system. It was only 2 days ago, this thing was out to Bermuda and a complete whiff on almost every model, looked like a lost cause perhaps. 

Even the amped GEM, didnt even have a storm on 12Z Tuesday, it wasn't until 00Z it latched on to something

I don't care about jacking, at this point I want something that will be decent and not always worrying about getting porked again.

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FXWX

FXWX

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Zero limitation on snow accumulation unless it is straight up 36 F and it's mixed cat paws.   Soaked cotton ball snow type would stick.   I've seen 8" at 34.5 with snow that's borderline silvery. 

This concern is part of the mania cycling that can be identified in the addicted model cinema user's stages of stoned.   It's like they can't take an optimistic look, because they need the downer to make the next model run a more potent high.  LOL  

 

Agree Tip...  If that's your concern on Jan. 19th during a generally cold period, it might be time for a break.  Just be happy we have a moderate event to track...

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I was just taking a closer look at the 06z RDPS ... 

At 69 hrs, it has the 0C 850 mb isotherm S of even Scott... with a 992 mb low passing through climo needle slot lat/lon for Pike snow.    Yet it has the mix line NW of Boston at that time.   I get it that it's 925 mb is probably doing the trick there, but that validity comes into question for me.  

There's a +PP N of this system, in general, and once the pressure well gets going SW of the region, and lowers further as the low makes it's closest approach ... despite the higher resolution of the RGEM that total synoptic circumstance will tend to back the flow more.  Combining with vertical fixing in the cold sector, that's isothermal in the sfc to 850 ..probably -1C .. 

I could see that busting that mix line too far NW ... 30 or so mile say... if a 06z RGEM were the final solution.   Which it's not.  Still, there's plenty in that handling/model run to pick apart.

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Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

We beat 4 inches in January 2022. I think we also had over 4 inches 2 years ago in 2023. 

Of course in 2021 we had one to two feet in one storm.

See - now that I am on third cup I realized I was wrong. On a different note - if anyone in our area wants to do a get together I frequent Berlinetta Brewing on Main Street in Bridgeport often. Very good Checz style brewing. All analog vibe with great vinyl for sale as well. The brothers actually trade in high end - rare records as well.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't care about jacking, at this point I want something that will be decent and not always worrying about getting porked again.

I could see you flipping to snow when rates are high, and then light cold rain... back and forth for a couple hours, then the low gets abeam of your latitude and the cyclogenic feedback related dynamic height falls... more backing llv flow, etc etc, while still having mechanics aloft and suddenly, you burst heavy snow with wind for 3 hours then it's over.  

just to the reader ... we need to keep in mind that that this f'er is going to be hauling ass.  I could almost visualize the radar looks less like a rotating region of returns, and more like the whole thing is rolling backward - the cyclostrophic response and the forward speed of the low pressure are nearly the same speeds.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I could see you flipping to snow when rates are high, and the light cold rain... back and forth for a couple hours, then the low gets abeam of your latitude and the cyclogenic feedback related dynamic height falls... more backing llv flow, etc etc, while still having mechanics aloft and suddenly, you burst heavy snow with wind for 3 hours then it's over.  

just to the reader ... we need to keep in mind that that this f'er is going to be hauling ass.  I could almost visualize the radar looks less like a rotating region of returns, and more like the whole thing is rolling - the cyclostrophic response and the forward speed of the low pressure are nearly the same speeds.

FWIW BUFKIT was snow even at PYM but awfully close down there. We'll see. 

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