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As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I wonder if the lower resolution gives the appearance of greater consistency. OP euro hasn't changed much aloft either, relatively speaking, but has jumped around a bit with slp placement and qpf

Probably has a lot to do with it. But the Canadian suite hasn’t jumped around much either .. just no A1

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

BZ is in the house.

weathafella
weathafella

This is shaping up nicely.  If it holds never doubt me as a thread starter.

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Probably a good time to remind everyone:  

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Probably has a lot to do with it. But the Canadian suite hasn’t jumped around much either .. just no A1

Maybe it's just me, but my memory is (either correctly or incorrectly) telling me that the Canadian has had lots of ec cyclo events that it was consistently on its own island for and fell flat on its face. More often than the occasional coop, even.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

I know it will be in the 40s tomorrow, but will drop Sunday. Maybe it takes a bit to stick on roads,  but I wouldn’t worry. I just want to beat 4”. It’s approaching 3 years for that. 

Married w kids life can be tough, but you gotta find time for you.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

We've seen some pretty fantastic accumulation rates in smaller periods of time over the years.  I'm not worried about the 6-9 hr window of this event, necessarily - but ... there should be a limit to this system's intensity based upon the fact that a lot of the mechanics are so tightly couched in a highly compressed field.  This is a bit of a neg offset to vitals, like diffluence ... DPVA ...etc mechanics, which in general would foster better UVM and ultimately the wholesale event strength.

I almost wonder if the Euro cluster is seeing that limitation.  By doing so, it would limit the sfc cyclonic genesis field and there you go... a slightly weaker/flatter appeal. 

I just wanna caution that the EPS was a better performer of the event last week, which the American models spent a couple day's worth of cycles with deep scary bombs along the New England coast.   EPS never really wavered...  it proved ultimately wrong, because it did snow, and 2-5" was a better performance than it had ... but weighting error, it was much closer to reality than those gaudy GFS monster solutions.   

As an aside  ...there is a mantra that 'past performance doesn't dictate future results'  yeeeah.   I personally feel that is a shield folks use to fend off solutions, in hand, that are less than d-drippy.  In reality, if/when we are in the same essential pattern circumstance, which we are, there certainly is some value in how well a given guidance has been performing relative to that period time span.  

It'll be interesting to see where we are this evening, in guidance with this thing ...as we will be < 72 hours - a time when models tend to stop trying to wonder off consensus more (typically). 

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know it will be in the 40s tomorrow, but will drop Sunday. Maybe it takes a bit to stick on roads,  but I wouldn’t worry. I just want to beat 4”. It’s approaching 3 years for that. 

thats insane. i was just looking at the big storm on Feb 13th 2024 and your area barely got 3-4" and the same with previous Jan storm. So you must have been at what like 13" for the season ish?

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cut

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know it will be in the 40s tomorrow, but will drop Sunday. Maybe it takes a bit to stick on roads,  but I wouldn’t worry. I just want to beat 4”. It’s approaching 3 years for that. 

3 years!! I think the last one here in SWCT was 2018!!!! (I could be wrong as I am just on my second coffee!!)

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We've seen some pretty fantastic accumulation rates in smaller periods of time over the years.  I'm not worried about the 6-9 hr window of this event, necessarily - but ... there should be a limit to this system's intensity based upon the fact that a lot of the mechanics are so tightly couched in a highly compressed field.  This is a bit of a neg offset to vitals, like diffluence ... DPVA ...etc mechanics, which in general would foster better UVM and ultimately the wholesale event strength.

I almost wonder if the Euro cluster is seeing that limitation.  By doing so, it would limit the sfc cyclonic genesis field and there you go... a slightly weaker/flatter appeal. 

I just wanna caution that the EPS was a better performer of the event last week, which the American models spent a couple day's worth of cycles with deep scary bombs along the New England coast.   EPS never really wavered...  it proved ultimately wrong, because it did snow, and 2-5" was a better performance than it had ... but weighting error, it was much closer to reality than those gaudy GFS monster solutions.   

As an aside  ...there is a mantra that 'past performance doesn't dictate future results'  yeeeah.   I personally feel that is a shield folks use to fend off solutions, in hand, that are less than d-drippy.  In reality, if/when we are in the same essential pattern circumstance, which we are, there certainly is some value in how well a given guidance has been performing relative to that period time span.  

It'll be interesting to see where we are this evening, in guidance with this thing ...as we will be < 72 hours - a time when models tend to stop trying to wonder off consensus more (typically). 

Completely agree...some of these warning solutions are likely to trim back a bit this weekend. I'm sure this will confuse the usual suspect, but it is what it is.

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FXWX

FXWX

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know it will be in the 40s tomorrow, but will drop Sunday. Maybe it takes a bit to stick on roads,  but I wouldn’t worry. I just want to beat 4”. It’s approaching 3 years for that. 

The last thing the vast majority of the forum needs to be worried about is surface temps.  Any marginal surface temps at onset will vaporize quickly... mid-January during a long running cold pattern with solidly cold / frozen ground surfaces losing much to melting at onset is not an issue.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Completely agree...some of these warning solutions are likely to trim back a bit this weekend. I'm sure this will confuse the usual suspect, but it is what it is.

Yea.
 

Once the weenie has popped out and takes over, there’s no turning back. The weenie’s out of the bottle at that point…

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