As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[ineedsnow]

6z GEFS are pretty far west

[MJO812]

  On 1/17/2025 at 11:37 AM, ineedsnow said:

6z GEFS are pretty far west

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Eps isn't 

[UnitedWx]

  On 1/17/2025 at 11:20 AM, Kitz Craver said:

Picked up one of these viruses going around, blows…

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SO much... shit going around, sometimes literally! One of my men had to leave early last Tuesday due to well... shit

[moneypitmike]

I guess confidence in a 4-6 deal could be be pretty high if the 12z runs play right.

[UnitedWx]

Looking pretty good for a fairly region wide snowfall Sunday night. We don't need a foot to actually make it look like winter, especially with the cold after

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/17/2025 at 10:54 AM, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully a Euro/GFS compromise. That would work for all.

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06z euro still pretty far southeast though it looked a little NW of 00z.  Surprised at the gap between it and the 06z gfs. 

[Kitz Craver]

  On 1/17/2025 at 11:38 AM, UnitedWx said:

SO much... shit going around, sometimes literally! One of my men had to leave early last Tuesday due to well... shit

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Yeah, half our crew is out. I have the head congestion, headache, chills version. Pretty sweet, lol

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 1/17/2025 at 11:36 AM, Kitz Craver said:

Bob Maxon just said, “I’m tempted to say 4-6”… at least…”

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Exactly. He also said they could go up depending on how the model runs go into tomorrow

[Hoth]

Stoked at the possibility of actually covering my grass with this one. It has been a little while.

[UnitedWx]

  On 1/17/2025 at 11:41 AM, Kitz Craver said:

Yeah, half our crew is out. I have the head congestion, headache, chills version. Pretty sweet, lol

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We just got back to 100 percent (whatever that is) but it seems people can't go two weeks right now without picking up another flavor of sick

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/17/2025 at 11:32 AM, Snowcrazed71 said:

It seems a lot of the weather stations are going towards the Euro with 3 to 5 in or so of snow. But most have said they still could trend higher as a GFS shows more than the Euro. So we'll see what happens in the next day

( It's funny how they all still seem to lean towards the Euro, not the GFS when it comes to putting out their snow maps and forecasting methods )

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It’s because the euro is the superior model. Kind of a large gap for being 60 hours out right now though. I’d expect we’ll see a swift convergence today on guidance. My guess is euro comes west some more and the Canadian duo comes east a bit. We’ll see though…weirder things have happened. 

[UnitedWx]

  On 1/17/2025 at 9:52 AM, TalcottWx said:

I like how Kevin is further away from the 6" zone than me. Great map! 

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Welcome back! We know snow is likely when you pop in lol

[JC-CT]

  On 1/17/2025 at 11:43 AM, ORH_wxman said:

It’s because the euro is the superior model. Kind of a large gap for being 60 hours out right now though. I’d expect we’ll see a swift convergence today on guidance. My guess is euro comes west some more and the Canadian duo comes east a bit. We’ll see though…weirder things have happened. 

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NAM got em spooked

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Still timing differences too.. the amped west are faster.  Euro speeding up timing now.  This is becoming strictly a Sunday event here.. would be cool for eagles game at 1 too.. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/17/2025 at 11:53 AM, JC-CT said:

NAM got em spooked

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Lol…NAM totally out to lunch on this one I think. But it’s interesting that the old EE combo are the furthest SE. my guess is we see a compromise of some sorts….which would prob maximize the snow coverage in SNE which is a plus. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/17/2025 at 12:11 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

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NW Jersey to Berkshires jack coming .. Like the old days .. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/17/2025 at 11:20 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Reggie has been so consistent, it's a major red flag.. 

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it did wobble east at 6z

[Sey-Mour Snow]

AIFS (skynet) has been very steady with this storm, better than euro ..  6z run was like a blend of all models 4-8" for most on this forum.. 

[Bryan63]

That was a fun few days thinking SE Mass actually had a chance to be included.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/17/2025 at 12:00 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Still timing differences too.. the amped west are faster.  Euro speeding up timing now.  This is becoming strictly a Sunday event here.. would be cool for eagles game at 1 too.. 

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Won’t start for most of CT until after dark except maybe far SW

[mahk_webstah]

  On 1/17/2025 at 12:00 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Still timing differences too.. the amped west are faster.  Euro speeding up timing now.  This is becoming strictly a Sunday event here.. would be cool for eagles game at 1 too.. 

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Saquon weather.  Can barely see him thorough the shroud of heavy snow until he’s 30 yards downfield.  4-8 in Philly 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/17/2025 at 12:13 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

it did wobble east at 6z

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ya its wobbled back and forth.. but never a major jump I'd bet it verifies a good bit east of its 00z run though , that's an outlier

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/17/2025 at 11:40 AM, ORH_wxman said:

06z euro still pretty far southeast though it looked a little NW of 00z.  Surprised at the gap between it and the 06z gfs. 

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Yeah, I’m hoping we see a little compromise. GFS got a little close for my liking.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/17/2025 at 12:15 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Won’t start for most of CT until after dark except maybe far SW

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looks to start between 2-5pm in your hood.. Still too many timing differences to know.. 

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 1/17/2025 at 12:15 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Won’t start for most of CT until after dark except maybe far SW

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Kevin, not so sure on that now. I'm thinking it's going to start in the late afternoon around 3:00 or 4:00

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/17/2025 at 12:15 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Won’t start for most of CT until after dark except maybe far SW

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gfs and rgem are 12pm start time for me and you

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/17/2025 at 12:16 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

looks to start between 2-5pm in your hood.. Still too many timing differences to know.. 

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You want it to start later there for max accumulation. It’s gonna be near 40 Sunday coast and valley 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/17/2025 at 12:19 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

You want it to start later there for max accumulation. It’s gonna be near 40 Sunday coast and valley 

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Man Snow

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 1/17/2025 at 12:19 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

You want it to start later there for max accumulation. It’s gonna be near 40 Sunday coast and valley 

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But, what was mentioned is as soon as the precipitation starts the temperatures are going to be dropping, so accumulation is not going to be an issue except maybe the far Southeastern part of Connecticut.

Just listening to Bob maxon and he had mentioned the same thing about the temps falling as soon as the precipitation starts in the afternoon.