As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[ORH_wxman]

I like the RGEM in the short range....I'm not sure I'd use it as a marker at 72-84 hours....it's a piece of fringe guidance at that range imho.....GGEM can be ok, but again, the GFS is better than it at this point during winter season for our region. Maybe years ago they'd run neck and neck. I def still look at the Canadian...it still scores enough coups and it was the model sniffing this threat out days ago when all others were completely flat like @Typhoon Tip already mentioned.,

[ineedsnow]

[40/70 Benchmark]

This event appears to have a CJ/CF aspect to it, which is why you see the subtle screw wedge in the MRV area. I buy that.

[NorEastermass128]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Jackpot over S Weymouth. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I like the RGEM in the short range....I'm not sure I'd use it as a marker at 72-84 hours....it's a piece of fringe guidance at that range imho.....GGEM can be ok, but again, the GFS is better than it at this point during winter season for our region. Maybe years ago they'd run neck and neck. I def still look at the Canadian...it still scores enough coups and it was the model sniffing this threat out days ago when all others were completely flat like @Typhoon Tip already mentioned.,

Gfs has improved quite a bit with the upgrade . but it had this as OTS until yesterday. It still shows its SE bias on East coast snow storms 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This event appears to have a CJ/CF aspect to it, which is why you see the subtle screw wedge in the MRV area. I buy that.

You back in? 

[brooklynwx99]

EPS is maybe a hair drier but largely held serve. a solution like the RGEM is a pretty large west and amped outlier

[Prismshine Productions]

Increase over 12z

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You back in? 

I felt like it was 1-3" yesterday, but it looks somewhat better than that right now....at least in spots. I'll probably put out a first map either late tonight or tomorrow night and do a final one on Saturday night.

[weathafella]

Kevin will be sleeping when cmc shows light drizzle for the event while every other model crushes us.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, weathafella said:

Kevin will be sleeping when cmc shows light drizzle for the event while every other model crushes us.

Most of us here will be asleep for that . You, Ray, Dryslot and Ice72

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I felt like it was 1-3" yesterday, but it looks somewhat better than that right now....at least in spots. I'll probably put out a first map either late tonight or tomorrow night and do a final one on Saturday night.

Should be a very widespread 4-8 lolli 10

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Reggie has been more consistent, you have to consider it an option.  Euro and GFS flip flopping while Reggie has been amped, wouldn’t be smart to ignore it. 

I hear ya, and I do give a "glance" when close to a major event, but if I didn't have access to it, that wouldn't bother me; I feel that same about the ICON.  

[CoastalWx]

Man people love that crack Kuchie.

[Bryan63]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Should be a very widespread 4-8 lolli 10

I am just an observer here for the most part, but it seems like you just will it to snow. This isn't the first system this winter you've stuck with that has reeled others back in on 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I hear ya, and I do give a "glance" when close to a major event, but if I didn't have access to it, that wouldn't bother me; I feel that same about the ICON.  

I agree , just gets a bit more credence thus specific storm for being the steadiest 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

GEFS looking  better

back dat gefs up

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Bryan63 said:

I am just an observer here for the most part, but it seems like you just will it to snow. This isn't the first system this winter you've stuck with that has reeled others back in on 

It’s what we do . It works 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man people love that crack Kuchie.

10 to 1 and kuchie are going to be wrong somewhere.. there really not any good maps for snow potential.. 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

back dat gefs up

Eps bumped west slightly

[JC-CT]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most of us here will be asleep for that . You, Ray, Dryslot and Ice72

Ice posting at 3am, "where is everyone, is this site dead?"

[Sey-Mour Snow]

I see some outlets already with snow maps out. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Ice posting at 3am, "where is everyone, is this site dead?"

Wife and kids ready to get up for the work and school day soon while the bottle of Dewar’s still has a glass or two left till empty. 

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

10 to 1 and kuchie are going to be wrong somewhere.. there really not any good maps for snow potential.. 

Give me 10:1. At least it’s near climo and I can easily interpret the QPF so I can put my own mental adjustment to the total knowing where the snow will be sloppy and where the most persistent banding will be. There’s nothing scientific about kuchie.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wife and kids ready to get up for the work and school day soon while the bottle of Dewar’s still has a glass or two left till empty. 

Why is he stuck on 2011? He’s like a time capsule.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Give me 10:1. At least it’s near climo and I can easily interpret the QPF so I can put my own mental adjustment to the total knowing where the snow will be sloppy and where the most persistent banding will be. There’s nothing scientific about kuchie.

Truth 

[weathafella]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most of us here will be asleep for that . You, Ray, Dryslot and Ice72

At 11:15?  We’re not talking 2AM….

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Why is he stuck on 2011? He’s like a time capsule.

Moved to Weha seeking and thinking it was a snowy climate .. not realizing he moved to Death Valley, CT 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Should be a very widespread 4-8 lolli 10

Nope.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

At 11:15?  We’re not talking 2AM….

I won't be up much past 11...got drop offs for the kids, then infant duty in the AM.