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As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I like the RGEM in the short range....I'm not sure I'd use it as a marker at 72-84 hours....it's a piece of fringe guidance at that range imho.....GGEM can be ok, but again, the GFS is better than it at this point during winter season for our region. Maybe years ago they'd run neck and neck. I def still look at the Canadian...it still scores enough coups and it was the model sniffing this threat out days ago when all others were completely flat like @Typhoon Tip already mentioned.,

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

BZ is in the house.

weathafella
weathafella

This is shaping up nicely.  If it holds never doubt me as a thread starter.

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Probably a good time to remind everyone:  

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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  On 1/16/2025 at 11:44 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I like the RGEM in the short range....I'm not sure I'd use it as a marker at 72-84 hours....it's a piece of fringe guidance at that range imho.....GGEM can be ok, but again, the GFS is better than it at this point during winter season for our region. Maybe years ago they'd run neck and neck. I def still look at the Canadian...it still scores enough coups and it was the model sniffing this threat out days ago when all others were completely flat like @Typhoon Tip already mentioned.,

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Gfs has improved quite a bit with the upgrade . but it had this as OTS until yesterday. It still shows its SE bias on East coast snow storms 

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FXWX

FXWX

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  On 1/16/2025 at 10:35 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Reggie has been more consistent, you have to consider it an option.  Euro and GFS flip flopping while Reggie has been amped, wouldn’t be smart to ignore it. 

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I hear ya, and I do give a "glance" when close to a major event, but if I didn't have access to it, that wouldn't bother me; I feel that same about the ICON.  

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dendrite

dendrite

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  On 1/17/2025 at 12:03 AM, ineedsnow said:

10 to 1 and kuchie are going to be wrong somewhere.. there really not any good maps for snow potential.. 

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Give me 10:1. At least it’s near climo and I can easily interpret the QPF so I can put my own mental adjustment to the total knowing where the snow will be sloppy and where the most persistent banding will be. There’s nothing scientific about kuchie.

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