As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[ineedsnow]

GEFS looking  better

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

GEFS looking  better

They should all be detecting at this point forward...  

[Damage In Tolland]

It’s always a race between Ineedsnow and Tony on who will make the first model post as they come out 

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS looks good. sharper vort with more PVA and a better jet

[ineedsnow]

[Sey-Mour Snow]

43 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I know folks love looking at and posting about any model than can get their hands on, but I'm surprised by the amount of posts about the Reggie, the ICON, and yes even the global Canadian!  Reggie will every once in a great while hit an event, but it is far from a consistently correct model.  Decision makers never sit there and say, I can't wait to see the Reggie, ICON or the Canadian before I lock in my final forecast.

Reggie has been more consistent, you have to consider it an option.  Euro and GFS flip flopping while Reggie has been amped, wouldn’t be smart to ignore it. 

[Typhoon Tip]

It's interesting how the low in a lot of the flat versions during the prior consternation ...were detonating out along the right exit region (outer S side of the purple streak), but as this came thru the last 36 hours ...gradually the modeled low has migrated under that streak.  It could continue across and end up on the polar side of that sucker.  There's some feedbacks tho - where the lower level thickness gradient is packed, that's usually where the low tracks.

[FXWX]

37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

My guess is they would not be viewed as much if they weren’t coming out early in the cycle. If they were late like the JMA or NAVGEM, they’d be relegated to similar status. Canadian might be a little more useful but not by a lot. 

Agree... A degree of my post was a bit in jest; I fully understand folks looking at as much info as possible, and looking for trends; once inside 36 hours, I also sneak a peak at the reggie during really big potential events in case a radically different solution points to a red flag...

[dendrite]

Not going to pretend to know what’s correct, but the RGEM, GGEM, and EC are swinging that dPVA through more northward than the NCEP models. 

Not sure why cod didn’t load the ec, but here’s pivotal

[CoastalWx]

Just get Reggie SE and we can all be happy.

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just get Reggie SE and we can all be happy.

Don’t worry bro. I got you.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Don’t worry bro. I got you.

Chill out, dickwad.

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, FXWX said:

I know folks love looking at and posting about any model than can get their hands on, but I'm surprised by the amount of posts about the Reggie, the ICON, and yes even the global Canadian!  Reggie will every once in a great while hit an event, but it is far from a consistently correct model.  Decision makers never sit there and say, I can't wait to see the Reggie, ICON or the Canadian before I lock in my final forecast.

Walt Drag frequently mentions he doesn’t consider winter storms unless the GGEM shows it.  It’s one of his benchmark models and the RGEM is the best Meso model we have so I don’t understand this post at all.  GFS is the worst model we have and it’s not close

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Chill out, dickwad.

lol…you should’ve left this up

[ineedsnow]

[The 4 Seasons]

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18Z GEM? We pullin' out models from the woodwork with this one

[Prismshine Productions]

just got home from work, how is the Happy Hour suites looking?

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

lol…you should’ve left this up

It looked like you couldn’t view it so I took it down. That was the perfect response. 

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Walt Drag frequently mentions he doesn’t consider winter storms unless the GGEM shows it.  It’s one of his benchmark models and the RGEM is the best Meso model we have so I don’t understand this post at all.  GFS is the worst model we have and it’s not close

Everclear?

[Allsnow]

16 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Walt Drag frequently mentions he doesn’t consider winter storms unless the GGEM shows it.  It’s one of his benchmark models and the RGEM is the best Meso model we have so I don’t understand this post at all.  GFS is the worst model we have and it’s not close

Drinking? 

[MJO812]

Euro shifted slightly east

[Spanks45]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Euro shifted slightly east

of course it did.....can't make this an easy forecast.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro is actually a touch better for all of SNE than 12z was. Expanded higher qpf NW somewhat 

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro shifted slightly east

Isn't that pretty similar to 12z

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Isn't that pretty similar to 12z

It’s just noise, it’s a bit beefier would still be solid for many, I’m sure 00z will tic west and amp up a bit more. As long as others hold of course

[Damage In Tolland]

This is going to throw heavy snow well NW of storm center which is why you see 18z better than 12zee 

[Prismshine Productions]

21 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

It threw down a helluva haymaker actually, zoomed in view 

[brooklynwx99]

lol the ECMWF isn't east. vort is sharper

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol the ECMWF isn't east. vort is sharper

Too much confusion in the precinct at the fingerprinting desk 

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Everclear?

He just wants to see some palm trees. Go and try to shake away his disease.