As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I know. Just stick with 10:1.

I know we harp on it all the time, but I just saw a post from AMS that Kuchera (or Max T aloft) has the largest errors of all the SLR. 

Utah is testing a new random forest SLR that shows promising results, beating all other methods out there. Like the rest it does struggle most with the extreme SLRs (too low).

[Damage In Tolland]

Canadian / GFS seem to have best handle 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I know we harp on it all the time, but I just saw a post from AMS that Kuchera (or Max T aloft) has the largest errors of all the SLR. 

Utah is testing a new random forest SLR that shows promising results, beating all other methods out there. Like the rest it does struggle most with the extreme SLRs (too low).

Bufkit 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Canadian / GFS seem to have best handle 

Lol... And how do you come up with that outcome? Yes, they both show the best solutions with The most snowfall for the region, and they may be right in the end.... But as some have already mentioned, there's a fast flow, the Euro definitely is on the east side of the model runs. I guess we can say they're in the middle of everything? I'm just leery to say that they have the best handle on what's going on. Love to get your reason why you feel they have the best handle on what's going to happen.

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I know we harp on it all the time, but I just saw a post from AMS that Kuchera (or Max T aloft) has the largest errors of all the SLR. 

Utah is testing a new random forest SLR that shows promising results, beating all other methods out there. Like the rest it does struggle most with the extreme SLRs (too low).

Even better than cobb?

[Damage In Tolland]

Because Euro has been OTS East .. back west back east flopping around. GGEM has been steadfast for days. 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Even better than cobb?

Yes. 

I'm partial to Cobb myself because it is more dynamic than other SLRs but it's not perfect around here either. It actually showed the 850-700 mb thickness as having the lowest errors in the eastern CONUS.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Yes. 

I'm partial to Cobb myself because it is more dynamic than other SLRs

Oh boy...I hope they can incorporate that into bufkit 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Lol... And how do you come up with that outcome? Yes, they both show the best solutions with The most snowfall for the region, and they may be right in the end.... But as some have already mentioned, there's a fast flow, the Euro definitely is on the east side of the model runs. I guess we can say they're in the middle of everything? I'm just leery to say that they have the best handle on what's going on. Love to get your reason why you feel they have the best handle on what's going to happen.

His snow goggles have been on since the last bust but once they are on, they stay on until 3/1. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yes. 

I'm partial to Cobb myself because it is more dynamic than other SLRs but it's not perfect around here either. It actually showed the 850-700 mb thickness as having the lowest errors in the eastern CONUS.

"

[brooklynwx99]

EPS is NW of the OP, similar to 06z

[HoarfrostHubb]

I would be quite happy with an Advisory/low end Warning snowfall here

[Damage In Tolland]

We’ve got a solid 6-10 lolli 12 storm coming it appears 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Oh boy...I hope they can incorporate that into bufkit 

https://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/retro_map.html

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Euro falls in line with the fast flow anal boundry and thus more reasonable. A flacid but taken low end advisory. 

I suggest at this point you go all in on a society halting  ...

no j/k.    Confidence is up for an event - I'm not sold on magnitude.  Like I've been saying/reasons why ... this really should cap at mid scale

[The 4 Seasons]

7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yes. 

I'm partial to Cobb myself because it is more dynamic than other SLRs

So the Max Temp in Profile option in bufkit is just Kuchera? And then theres Cobb05 and Cobb11 which i still dont know which is the better to use and what the difference is.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just in my opinion the trend in the Euro is more telling here.  

Also, it looks like the EPS is ahead of the game comparing to the operational.  The 06z EPS ( from what I can tell...) was about where the operational is now, but the EPS of now is closer than the operational.  In other words, the op version is playing catch-up

This is red flag that the correction vector in the operational is NW of prior runs.

[BRSno]

Glad I chose the right weekend to visit! And at the first hint of a storm I changed my return from Monday to Tuesday

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

!So the Max Temp in Profile option in bufkit is just Kuchera? And then theres Cobb05 and Cobb11 which i still dont know which is the better to use and what the difference is.

MT is Basically Kuchie Koo  5 refers to 2005 11 to 2011

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, BRSno said:

Glad I chose the right weekend to visit! And at the first hint of a storm I changed my return from Monday to Tuesday

Where are you from?

[DavisStraight]

12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I would be quite happy with an Advisory/low end Warning snowfall here

I'll take anything that whitens the ground with the cold shot coming next week, I want a winter feel.

[CoastalWx]

My method is simple and works well. Go with 10:1 this far out...I mean that is why you have a range, correct? Once you get closer and can figure out where the cross hair sig lies, then you can get cute with amounts. If you are sure your area is better than 10:1..maybe you can do like 14:1 this far out...but not worth getting cute.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ve got a solid 6-10 lolli 12 storm coming it appears 

It’s not even 5pm yet bruh…

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

My method is simple and works well. Go with 10:1 this far out...I mean that is why you have a range, correct? Once you get closer and can figure out where the cross hair sig lies, then you can get cute with amounts. If you are sure your area is better than 10:1..maybe you can do like 14:1 this far out...but not worth getting cute.

Method Man?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s not even 5pm yet bruh…

Glad to see you’ve picked yourself up out of the toilet and have come back to some sense of weather reality acknowledging a nice hit is coming 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Method Man?

You best protect your neck. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

My method is simple and works well. Go with 10:1 this far out...I mean that is why you have a range, correct? Once you get closer and can figure out where the cross hair sig lies, then you can get cute with amounts. If you are sure your area is better than 10:1..maybe you can do like 14:1 this far out...but not worth getting cute.

Yeah and even in colder profiles, I've had 10 to 1 or worse....I think it was the 12/13/07 traffic catastrophe storm where I had 8-9" of pure baking powder at 22-24F and it was prob slightly under 10 to 1...had nearly an inch of QPF. I think even the ORH ASOS only had near 10 to 1 and we know how the ASOS undercatches snowfall QPF a lot.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and even in colder profiles, I've had 10 to 1 or worse....I think it was the 12/13/07 traffic catastrophe storm where I had 8-9" of pure baking powder at 22-24F and it was prob slightly under 10 to 1...had nearly an inch of QPF. I think even the ORH ASOS only had near 10 to 1 and we know how the ASOS undercatches snowfall QPF a lot.

But kind of awesome to get that low vis heavy snow and 8-11" out of it region wide. Good base snow. 

[OceanStWx]

20 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

So the Max Temp in Profile option in bufkit is just Kuchera? And then theres Cobb05 and Cobb11 which i still dont know which is the better to use and what the difference is.

Max temp and Kuchera are the same. There are two equations, based on what the max temp in the profile is. And then Cobb05 and Cobb11 are just the years the study and the update were published I believe. So in theory 11 should be a bit better performance.

[OceanStWx]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My method is simple and works well. Go with 10:1 this far out...I mean that is why you have a range, correct? Once you get closer and can figure out where the cross hair sig lies, then you can get cute with amounts. If you are sure your area is better than 10:1..maybe you can do like 14:1 this far out...but not worth getting cute.

If you want to be a real weenie you could go 11:1, that's climo.