As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, JC-CT said:

did the goofus crash

Yeah it looks like it's stuck at 60h

[Prismshine Productions]

Just now, JC-CT said:

did the goofus crash

it is only out to hr60 but looking at he southern stream placement over SC at H5 it would be possibly NW or 6z extropalated

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it looks like it's stuck at 60h

TT out to 72 now...looks on track

[MJO812]

Gfs will be nw but it crashed 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs will be nw but it crashed 

Too many consecutive refreshes from police cruisers?

[MJO812]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Too many consecutive refreshes from police cruisers?

I'm at home 

[weathafella]

Stuck at 69 for me.  That’s hours you dirty folks….

[JC-CT]

TT is out to 78

[mreaves]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What?

I think she is referring to Rt. 9 across southern VT.  It's actually called the Molly Stark Scenic Byway

[brooklynwx99]

most predictable NW trend ever

[Sn0waddict]

[DJln491]

must be having trouble processing all those upcoming snowstorms

[JC-CT]

it looks fantastic lol

[Prismshine Productions]

1 minute ago, mreaves said:

I think she is referring to Rt. 9 across southern VT.  It's actually called the Molly Start Scenic Byway

I will keep that in mind, thanks

[mreaves]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

I will keep that in mind, thanks

A Vermont legend.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molly_Stark

[JC-CT]

[JC-CT]

[weatherwiz]

Weird, hours 84-96 are grayed out for me on TT 

[Prismshine Productions]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Weird, hours 84-96 are grayed out for me on TT 

same

[JC-CT]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Weird, hours 84-96 are grayed out for me on TT 

only certain parameters are working right. composite reflectivity is there, so is 24 hour qpf

[Damage In Tolland]

That’s a Pound me town 

[ORH_wxman]

GFS is low end warning snowfall for a good chunk of the region.

[Typhoon Tip]

The short version is the critical confidence gathering interval ( that time when it 'seems' actually right) is probably taking place as we type.

The longer version/reasons why:   So, we're crossing from the mid range into the outer short range.    The limitations on prognostic accuracy, in the model handling ..., are still present - the under lying circumstances with the compression/sensitivity loading aren't going away with this.  But those are being offset now

I've been personally holding out for crossing that threshold in this particular situation, because of that latter aspect above - we need(ed) to get closer where the resolution could 'see' more coherently in a situation where tinier variances would effectively mask the better solutions..etc..  million ways to describe how the models lack resolution to suss out those tiny differences at long ranges, those that are hidden by compression. 

The ensemble means have, as expected, been later to the party than the higher resolution operational versions.  The GFS oper came on board technically overnight; will see shortly if a sense of consistency with this 12z run.  I suspect the 12z Euro does as well...seeing both the 06z operational was kindly nodded favorably by the EPS mean - also have a narrow but probably important strip of spread smearing on the nw side of the track mean.

 

[CoastalWx]

Click "radar/rain/frozen)

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

only certain parameters are working right. composite reflectivity is there, so is 24 hour qpf

ahh makes sense. I would prefer to see more though than QPF but I would hope this is an encouraging signal for fronto potential at 78hr

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is low end warning snowfall for a good chunk of the region.

We'll see how Euro looks but that is a large increase in QPF for the event

 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

most predictable NW trend ever

it's amazing how sensitive this is.   those variations, run to run, if we didn't know the history we wouldn't know that we were talking about the difference of 7-10" vs partly sunny

[JC-CT]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

ahh makes sense. I would prefer to see more though than QPF but I would hope this is an encouraging signal for fronto potential at 78hr

of course, but you can definitely see the banding signal on the sim radar so I'd imagine 700 fronto is right over the region

[CoastalWx]

Maybe brief mix to start here, but we would take that.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We'll see how Euro looks but that is a large increase in QPF for the event

 

some pretty good llvl inflow with strengthening llj. Going to see a pretty solid band if that verifies.