As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[weathafella]

When I think of overrunning, I imagine a WSW-ENE boundary that if I'm lucky, I'm north of with a big gradient between truly warm air and frigid conditions.  Those setups can produce pretty big snows sometimes.   However at least initially we will possibly get some snow from systems running up the baroclinic zone just offshore.  Same idea but typically not as juicy.  It appears that guidance now wants to potentially give us the opportunity to get clumps of qpf as they go by our latitude.  The first one of concern is a potential 3-6+ event that models have in a good place for Sunday night/Monday.  Whatever snow falls should stay on the ground for some time since next week is lining up to be quite cold.   Did we start winter when NAO relaxed?  

[40/70 Benchmark]

The title sure has the appeal of a Tippy thread...as long as the post itself.

[CoastalWx]

Dynamics should suffice. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

GL Tip.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Dynamics should suffice. 

Why is H20 confused? That’s a classic Tip phrase.

[MJO812]

[ineedsnow]

0z ICON is 

[Prismshine Productions]

Was just about to post that, Iconic is a Ray jackpot

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[mitchnick]

[Prismshine Productions]

Shoot, I would gladly take 6" from that

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[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Was just about to post that, Iconic is a Ray jackpot

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Tip. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Gonna delve into this tomorrow if it warrants. 

[Prismshine Productions]

GFS just missed to the right

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[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

GFS just missed to the right

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Does it seem to be getting closer with each run?

[Prismshine Productions]

Does it seem to be getting closer with each run?

.

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[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Does it seem to be getting closer with each run?

No. The trend is se. 

[The 4 Seasons]

GEM is a lot better than 12Z though, warm too for SE sections at least

[MJO812]

Cmc

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No. The trend is se. 

Well.. we'll see

[Prismshine Productions]

Cmc

No agreement and Goofus on an island

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[ineedsnow]

CMC trying for next Thursday

[ineedsnow]

move this 100 miles north but still would be good 

[mitchnick]

Ukie for Sunday if interested. 

[weathafella]

Gfs eastern goalpost.  Euro actually is a nice middle ground and fairly consistent past few days.  Nice light to moderate event.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 hours ago, weathafella said:

Gfs eastern goalpost.  Euro actually is a nice middle ground and fairly consistent past few days.  Nice light to moderate event.

3-6” it is 

[Snowcrazed71]

49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

3-6” it is 

Still not a guarantee. For now, I'm in the 1-3" possibly 2-4". Have to see how all the models come together by tomorrow

[Sey-Mour Snow]

If GFS actually ends up verifying Sunday then cold and dry many will quit..  Good thing it's an outlier as of now for Sunday.. 6z Euro not loading for me, SKYNET was nice at 00z.. 

[DJln491]

On pivotal 6z euro stuck on hr 39

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

On pivotal 6z euro stuck on hr 39

Oddly, 6z Eps on Pivotal is progressing and is up to 78hrs.

[dryslot]

Stuck at hr 54 on SV.