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Discussion (and OBS if any) for minor impact (possibly mdt) wintry mix sometime btwn Noon Sun Jan 19-Noon Wed Jan 22. Focused Inauguration Day and 21st


wdrag
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No change from my perspective... concerning yes, but this is where I ride it out on messaging. Models show me no consensus except two events threaten NYC, one light snow the night of the 19th-morning 20th, then the latter late 21-22.  Will check back after 4P. 

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Yes, I did see the 06z/14 EC op through 144 hours and that is encouraging...giving NYC CP 1/2-1" snowfall by 06z/20 and more inland with some 3-4 Poconos and nil through 06z e 2/3rds LI   Just have to ride it out... cant conclude anything except I do think our snow time is probably Sunday night with second one behind it 121 or 22, probably too far south but threatening northern fringe. 

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12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Another 1-2 inch type event.   Maybe 2.  I'd take it given the pattern.   Amazing how we just can't get a legit storm this year.

Eventually the -PNA and typical Nina warm February will come and we can finally announce time of death for this disaster of a winter. I couldn’t care less about a car topper or brief coating to half inch type event which is all we can seem to pull off. Insane how we’ll likely add more southern cities with significantly more snow than NYC by this time next week or so. I know it’s been colder than the last few winters but with little snow it just makes it more miserable. At least with 40s-50s you can go outside. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Eventually the -PNA and typical Nina warm February will come and we can finally announce time of death for this disaster of a winter. I couldn’t care less about a car topper or brief coating to half inch type event which is all we can seem to pull off. Insane how we’ll likely add more southern cities with significantly more snow than NYC by this time next week or so. I know it’s been colder than the last few winters but with little snow it just makes it more miserable. At least with 40s-50s you can go outside. 

Stop it

You can go out in 20s and 30s. This cold weather is beautiful .

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Eventually the -PNA and typical Nina warm February will come and we can finally announce time of death for this disaster of a winter. I couldn’t care less about a car topper or brief coating to half inch type event which is all we can seem to pull off. Insane how we’ll likely add more southern cities with significantly more snow than NYC by this time next week or so. I know it’s been colder than the last few winters but with little snow it just makes it more miserable. At least with 40s-50s you can go outside. 

It's the ultimate kick in the chops.    Last 3 winters were mainly too warm to snow and we had plenty of storminess...now we get the cold and it's suppression city.    

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59 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It's the ultimate kick in the chops.    Last 3 winters were mainly too warm to snow and we had plenty of storminess...now we get the cold and it's suppression city.    

cold and sun is better than warm and rain.... but not as good as warm and sun or cold and snow

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Eventually the -PNA and typical Nina warm February will come and we can finally announce time of death for this disaster of a winter. I couldn’t care less about a car topper or brief coating to half inch type event which is all we can seem to pull off. Insane how we’ll likely add more southern cities with significantly more snow than NYC by this time next week or so. I know it’s been colder than the last few winters but with little snow it just makes it more miserable. At least with 40s-50s you can go outside. 

There's been around 6" here thus far with plenty of cold, also had a White Christmas. I guess it's all relative considering how bad  3 of the last 4 winters have been but I would hardly consider this a "disaster" winter, at least here in NE Queens. Certainly not what I'd call a good winter but not a disaster.

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6 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

There's been around 6" here thus far with plenty of cold, also had a White Christmas. I guess it's all relative considering how bad  3 of the last 4 winters have been but I would hardly consider this a "disaster" winter, at least here in NE Queens. Certainly not what I'd call a good winter but not a disaster.

I have 4” or so, the White Christmas was nice of course but going into met winter mid-point at peak climo for snow with that much, when Nina winters usually torch in Feb, is very lousy at a minimum especially when places way south of us have gotten slammed and look to keep doing so. Hopefully one of these waves can produce something, otherwise we’ll go into Feb well below average. In the past few winters we’ve been able to make something happen in February, so there’s that. But besides that for me it’s just been miserable. The lack of snow is more tolerable with warmer conditions, this cold/windy/dry bare ground sucks. 

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3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Eventually the -PNA and typical Nina warm February will come and we can finally announce time of death for this disaster of a winter. I couldn’t care less about a car topper or brief coating to half inch type event which is all we can seem to pull off. Insane how we’ll likely add more southern cities with significantly more snow than NYC by this time next week or so. I know it’s been colder than the last few winters but with little snow it just makes it more miserable. At least with 40s-50s you can go outside. 

Not saying I'm expecting a cold Feb by any stretch, but if you've got ample source region and a PV piece hanging around this side of the pole, It's hard to truly Nina torch across the northern tier.  You end up with low level cold leakage behind waves, though any cutter you'd obviously torch for that.

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