MJO812 Posted Monday at 07:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:38 PM Navy 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted Monday at 07:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:42 PM The very definition of desperation is rolling out the NAVGEM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 07:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:49 PM 7 minutes ago, RedSky said: The very definition of desperation is rolling out the NAVGEM Watch out when it's phased 2 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted Monday at 08:23 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:23 PM 31 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Watch out when it's phased Yep, the NAVGEM rule is that when the Navy isn’t the farthest SE of all guidance, that’s a red flag the other guidance is too far SE. I wouldn’t ignore the Navy here. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 08:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:47 PM 22 minutes ago, George001 said: Yep, the NAVGEM rule is that when the Navy isn’t the farthest SE of all guidance, that’s a red flag the other guidance is too far SE. I wouldn’t ignore the Navy here. It basically means it's too far SE even when it isn't compared to the other models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzwalker Posted Monday at 08:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:54 PM 30 minutes ago, George001 said: Yep, the NAVGEM rule is that when the Navy isn’t the farthest SE of all guidance, that’s a red flag the other guidance is too far SE. I wouldn’t ignore the Navy here. Are there AI models that get trained on multiple weather models to look for patterns, such as in the above examples ? U would think that looking at the systematic bias of Euro, GFS, CMC, etc, in relation to each other, u could get better predictions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted Monday at 09:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:13 PM 21 minutes ago, Blizzwalker said: Are there AI models that get trained on multiple weather models to look for patterns, such as in the above examples ? U would think that looking at the systematic bias of Euro, GFS, CMC, etc, in relation to each other, u could get better predictions. This is very interesting to me - AI incorporating real model biases during certain types of events in specific locations and then correcting for them. I've read that precip amounts are not improved with AI at this point but that the location of the greatest pressure drop, aka where the storm will have the greatest impacts, is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Monday at 09:38 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 09:38 PM No answers...modeling variable but pretty sure of minor light snow event for our NYC subforum Sunday night-Monday. Light overrunning qpf of mostly under 0.3"... decent more than 10 to 1 snow ratios. Generally suggests to me a minor snow event that lasts a few days to a week in NYC (again presuming I'm not radically overestimating the chance of an inch of snow in CP from this cold transition back to what might be the coldest day of the season next Wednesday?). Lets presume we get an inch or 2 in CP. Try not to get bummed if it isnt refreshed for a while and looks dirty after two days. I'll have more to say on any Monday Inauguration Day snowfall, if it looks like a cant miss 1-2". For now, I find it difficult to believe we will miss a little snow..nickel and dime I know. Thread the needle so not a guarantee. I just think there is too much jet dynamics next Sunday-Monday. The jet is already very strong over our area now. Anything after 05z/20 is all snow or brief ice to snow and probably a fairly dry snow. Will check back tomorrow morning for sure. Thanks for keeping the faith. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Monday at 09:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:58 PM A very good article on what a cold and potentially snowy pattern is - and is not. Lots of chances coming up starting around 1/19 and going for a week or longer beyond that, but no guarantees of significant snow (just greater probabilities than usual). https://www.weathernj.com/another-snowy-pattern-detected/ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 10:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:15 PM Gfs 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 10:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:22 PM 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Monday at 10:23 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:23 PM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Now that's a good old-fashioned 1980s four to eight inch snowfall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted Monday at 10:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:42 PM 17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Now that's a good old-fashioned 1980s four to eight inch snowfall. We've had so many 80s references around here lately I'm about to break out the J Geils album and the Pac Man Fever single. The 80s were great. Sorry, banter. But true. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted Monday at 10:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:43 PM 18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Now that's a good old-fashioned 1980s four to eight inch snowfall. That 18z GFS solution would be great - nice moderate snowfall followed by cold weather and probably very minimal melting. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 11:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:54 PM 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Now that's a good old-fashioned 1980s four to eight inch snowfall. it's our rarest type of snowfall, though I'd rather say it's 4-6 not 4-8, 6+ snowfalls were very rare and very spotty late 80s, early 90s and again late 90s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 11:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:55 PM 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Now that's a good old-fashioned 1980s four to eight inch snowfall. do you know 6+ inch snowfalls were so rare back then I heard there was talk of lowering winter storm warnings to 4" snow and school closings to 4" of snow too? That might happen one day.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Monday at 11:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:57 PM Just now, LibertyBell said: do you know 6+ inch snowfalls were so rare back then I heard there was talk of lowering winter storm warnings to 4" snow and school closings to 4" of snow too? That might happen one day.... I did not know that but that's interesting. What does a Euro AI show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted yesterday at 12:00 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:00 AM 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I did not know that but that's interesting. What does a Euro AI show? Not sure it goes out that far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted yesterday at 12:51 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:51 AM 55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: do you know 6+ inch snowfalls were so rare back then I heard there was talk of lowering winter storm warnings to 4" snow and school closings to 4" of snow too? That might happen one day.... Don’t be so dramatic. We got 24” on LI like two years ago. And multiple blizzards since 2010 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted yesterday at 01:41 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:41 AM 49 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Don’t be so dramatic. We got 24” on LI like two years ago. And multiple blizzards since 2010 no we're talking about the period from the mid 80s to the early 90s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted yesterday at 01:43 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:43 AM 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: I did not know that but that's interesting. What does a Euro AI show? 18z Euro AI passes the storm south of most of MD. VA and eastern shore of DE and MD are the winners. But almost brings up a big storm on the 24th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted yesterday at 02:15 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:15 AM 31 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Euro AI passes the storm south of most of MD. VA and eastern shore of DE and MD are the winners. But almost brings up a big storm on the 24th. Bad trends on the AI with the first wave. Cold dry is very a real threat at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted yesterday at 02:30 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:30 AM 45 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Euro AI passes the storm south of most of MD. VA and eastern shore of DE and MD are the winners. But almost brings up a big storm on the 24th. Would be the third storm for the Delmarva already. This is very reminiscent of a few years ago where they cleaned up as well. Maybe 19/20 was the winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted yesterday at 02:38 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:38 AM 21 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Bad trends on the AI with the first wave. Cold dry is very a real threat at this point And the cold/dry would be even worse this time with direct Arctic air coming down and the lakes finally freezing up. Still hopeful one of these waves can produce a moderate event but fully aware this can be yet another fail and trend back to suppressed crap. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 03:43 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:43 AM Light snowfall on icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted yesterday at 04:03 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:03 AM 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Light snowfall on icon I believe that's overdone with just flurries. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025011318&fh=150 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted yesterday at 04:10 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:10 AM 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I believe that's overdone with just flurries. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025011318&fh=150 Weatherbell has 1-3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 04:17 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:17 AM Gfs has nothing now 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 04:26 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:26 AM Cmc is gonna be better 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 04:35 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:35 AM Models all over the place 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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