MJO812 Posted Monday at 04:21 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:21 PM 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Looks like 06z AI euro Nice little snowfall 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Monday at 04:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:22 PM Just now, MJO812 said: Nice little snowfall That’s our best bet before the cold/dry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted Monday at 04:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:24 PM 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: That’s our best bet before the cold/dry Well at least whatever falls has staying power. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Monday at 04:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:37 PM Atlanta and Raleigh fringed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 04:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:38 PM 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Atlanta and Raleigh fringed. Cmc has a big hit up here the 22nd 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 04:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:40 PM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 04:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:41 PM 18 minutes ago, Allsnow said: That’s our best bet before the cold/dry Check out the cmc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Monday at 04:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:42 PM 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Cmc has a big hit up here the 22nd It seems as though the GFS focuses on the first wave and the intensity of that wave pushes the boundary too far south whilst the CMC does the opposite. Euro for the tiebreaker? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 04:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:43 PM 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: It seems as though the GFS focuses on the first wave and the intensity of that wave pushes the boundary too far south whilst the CMC does the opposite. Euro for the tiebreaker? I'm not sure if we're playing model roulette or wave roulette or both lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 04:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:44 PM 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: It seems as though the GFS focuses on the first wave and the intensity of that wave pushes the boundary too far south whilst the CMC does the opposite. Euro for the tiebreaker? Yeah seems that way for now. At least we have several chances. I'd personally sacrifice the 19th for the 22nd 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted Monday at 04:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:47 PM 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: It seems as though the GFS focuses on the first wave and the intensity of that wave pushes the boundary too far south whilst the CMC does the opposite. Euro for the tiebreaker? GFS has a 1044 high in West Virginia which suppresses the storm out to see. The CMC has a trough instead which allows the storm to come right up the coast. Interested to see what EURO has to say. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Monday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:54 PM 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah seems that way for now. At least we have several chances. I'd personally sacrifice the 19th for the 22nd It won’t be both… one or the other imo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 05:10 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:10 PM 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It won’t be both… one or the other imo Yeah we'll have to hope for 1 hit. Ukie has it on Monday so naturally the euro will probably have something Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 05:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:15 PM 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted Monday at 05:19 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:19 PM only 25 model cycles to go 2 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Monday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:38 PM 18 minutes ago, forkyfork said: only 25 model cycles to go Can't hang your hat on any solution right now ............work in progress.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 05:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:39 PM Euro is similiar to ukie 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:42 PM 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is similiar to ukie Pretty weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Monday at 05:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:45 PM 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Nice storm, especially with temps in the 20s and possibly 12-15:1 ratios (Kuchera shows ~15:1, but I don't trust ratios without knowing the situation in the DGZ where snow crystals/dendrites form)...just don't want to get rain on 1/19 and then have to wait until day 9 for snow, recognizing that counting on something at day 9 is a low probability usually...but I don't think the weather cares, lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Monday at 06:12 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:12 PM 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Atlanta and Raleigh fringed. Congrats Savannah! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Monday at 06:14 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:14 PM 31 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Pretty weak Yeah not too good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted Monday at 06:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:33 PM 49 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Pretty weak This is the winter of light snowfalls for our area, so it would make sense. We'll probably get another inch next Sunday night lol. At least it would stay on the ground with the very cold weather next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 06:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:36 PM 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: This is the winter of light snowfalls for our area, so it would make sense. We'll probably get another inch next Sunday night lol. At least it would stay on the ground with the very cold weather next week. I'm not buying any solution yet. Every model is different with events on different days 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Monday at 06:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:45 PM 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I'm not buying any solution yet. Every model is different with events on different days Need to see something within 4-5 days honestly. Next Monday looks like the best bet as we're within a week there-but would like to see model consistency...it does appear to be an arctic wave type setup which we have done well on in the past for some moderate events. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted Monday at 06:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:50 PM 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I'm not buying any solution yet. Every model is different with events on different days I agree. I was half joking with my comment. I could see the Sunday night into Monday wave becoming a moderate event, but a long way to go on that one. It'll be quite awhile before we have a better idea on next week's threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted Monday at 07:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:01 PM 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Nice storm, especially with temps in the 20s and possibly 12-15:1 ratios (Kuchera shows ~15:1, but I don't trust ratios without knowing the situation in the DGZ where snow crystals/dendrites form)...just don't want to get rain on 1/19 and then have to wait until day 9 for snow, recognizing that counting on something at day 9 is a low probability usually...but I don't think the weather cares, lol. seems like I don't get 7 inches of snow in a month so I will gladly take this solution with 7 inches at my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted Monday at 07:02 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:02 PM 16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Need to see something within 4-5 days honestly. Next Monday looks like the best bet as we're within a week there-but would like to see model consistency...it does appear to be an arctic wave type setup which we have done well on in the past for some moderate events. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Monday at 07:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:04 PM Definitely some support from the eps for Sunday. after that things looks cold and dry. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 07:07 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:07 PM 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Definitely some support from the eps for Sunday. after that things looks cold and dry. Looks like the 19th event is becoming more likely than the 22nd event? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 07:08 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:08 PM Just now, LibertyBell said: Looks like the 19th event is becoming more likely than the 22nd event? Maybe. No other model has it that early. Cmc is alone for the 22nd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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