Discussion (and OBS if any) for minor impact (possibly mdt) wintry mix sometime btwn Noon Sun Jan 19-Noon Wed Jan 22. Focused Inauguration Day and 21st

[WestBabylonWeather]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

NYC’s last daily snowfall of 4” or more occurred on January 29, 2022 when 7.3” fell. The January 28-29, 2022 storm dumped 8.5” of snow.

That storm was so crazy. Out here in babylon was almost 2 feet. Crazy cutoff 

[TJW014]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

NYC’s last daily snowfall of 4” or more occurred on January 29, 2022 when 7.3” fell. The January 28-29, 2022 storm dumped 8.5” of snow.

22" out on IBSP from that one. Just my luck that I was in FL during that one

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

That storm was so crazy. Out here in babylon was almost 2 feet. Crazy cutoff 

Yes. I recall it well, as I was visiting my sister in Patchogue at the time. Photo from Patchogue:

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Disappointing EURO run, however only one run and will likely change as we move forward.

EPS is weak sauce for Sunday 

 

how’s some interesting members for mid week. The Carolina’s might get crushed 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Allsnow said:

EPS is weak sauce for Sunday 

 

how’s some interesting members for mid week. The Carolina’s might get crushed 

I honestly would love to see the South get a good storm. Of course much more interesting down there.

[SnowGoose69]

Hope the EURO AI is right.  No QPF available but probably is like 2-5 inches.  Its been so good the last month or two inside of 120.  A bit erratic beyond that and I feel the Euro/EPS has beaten it from 120-180 but it was really the only model that accurately depicted the SRN US Event last week from days out

[EWR757]

Google Graphcast 12Z Wednesday still shows several inches for most of the area, although along the immediate coast mixed precip/rain is forecast to be an issue.

 

[snowman19]

36 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

EPS is weak sauce for Sunday 

 

how’s some interesting members for mid week. The Carolina’s might get crushed 

It’s honesty really hard to believe that we have been in a predominantly cold to very cold pattern since the day after Thanksgiving and have yet to see even one major (6”+) snow event anywhere in the metro area. It’s almost 07-08 vibes, snow wise at least, to this point except it’s been cold this winter unlike that one

[The 4 Seasons]

18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Hope the EURO AI is right.  No QPF available but probably is like 2-5 inches.  Its been so good the last month or two inside of 120.  A bit erratic beyond that and I feel the Euro/EPS has beaten it from 120-180 but it was really the only model that accurately depicted the SRN US Event last week from days out

is that 12Z? Where do you get it so fast, TT and Wxbell isnt out yet.

I also have a question for anyone here, for plotting snowfall. Is snowfall measured at ISP airport itself or is it Brookhaven (upton) doing the measuring and its kept record at the airport as "Islip Area"?

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s honesty really hard to believe that we have been in a predominantly cold to very cold pattern since the day after Thanksgiving and have yet to see even one major (6”+) snow event anywhere in the metro area. It’s almost 07-08 vibes, snow wise at least, to this point except it’s been cold this winter unlike that one

Incredibly disappointing 

 

we have failed at every pattern and even avoided the bad mjo phases 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

is that 12Z? Where do you get it so fast, TT and Wxbell isnt out yet.

I also have a question for anyone here, for plotting snowfall. Is snowfall measured at ISP airport itself or is it Brookhaven (upton) doing the measuring and its kept record at the airport as "Islip Area"?

 

No it was the 06.  I believe ISP measures at the airport.  As far as I know the only airports nationwide where the measuring is not done at the field are BOS/PHL/DTW/DEN.  There may be others I am not aware of but those all got moved due to bad measuring and JFK was close to being moved too

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

No it was the 06.  I believe ISP measures at the airport.  As far as I know the only airports nationwide where the measuring is not done at the field are BOS/PHL/DTW/DEN.  There may be others I am not aware of but those all got moved due to bad measuring and JFK was close to being moved too

Ok, great thanks for the info i really appreciate it. I didn't know BOS wasnt measured at the airport. Where exactly is it measured and by whom?

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Ok, great thanks for the info i really appreciate it. I didn't know BOS wasnt measured at the airport. Where exactly is it measured and by whom?

I think all 4 are someone who lives just off the airport within 1 mile.  BOS you'll notice never puts 4 groups or SNINCR remarks in METARs during snow events as those other airports do not either.  If you see that you know they are not measuring there.

[weatherpruf]

53 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. I recall it well, as I was visiting my sister in Patchogue at the time. Photo from Patchogue:

We struggled here, as we always do in those coastal type set ups. Our last good hit here was last Feb, which was a surprise. Decent storm. 10-12 inches.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

That storm was so crazy. Out here in babylon was almost 2 feet. Crazy cutoff 

There was an appreciable increase in snow around Massapequa and definitely 20” or so once you reached Rt 231. I drove from Long Beach back to my house on the N Shore and noticed the increase in Massapequa and another dropoff once you went north through Dix Hills. My house had probably 14-15” and Huntington village 10-11”. There was definitely a shaft zone around there. East on Jericho Tpke the amounts visibly went up again around Larkfield Rd area. 

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

NYC’s last daily snowfall of 4” or more occurred on January 29, 2022 when 7.3” fell. The January 28-29, 2022 storm dumped 8.5” of snow.

Perfect Don!  Thank you very much.

Walt

 

 

[NorthShoreWx]

40 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There was an appreciable increase in snow around Massapequa and definitely 20” or so once you reached Rt 231. I drove from Long Beach back to my house on the N Shore and noticed the increase in Massapequa and another dropoff once you went north through Dix Hills. My house had probably 14-15” and Huntington village 10-11”. There was definitely a shaft zone around there. East on Jericho Tpke the amounts visibly went up again around Larkfield Rd area. 

16.4" IMBY from that one.  2.4" fell before midnight on the 28th, 14" on the 29th.  36.2" that winter.

Of the past 5 winters, two have been near or a little above average and 3 have been well below.  The 5-year average has been 22.1", which kinda sucks, but it is only our second worst 5 year period in the past 30.  The worst was 97-98 through 01-02 at 20.7".

On the brighter side, the best 5 consecutive winters from 2013-2014 through 2017-2018 averaged 56.0"  I still think the guys who were saying "don't get used to it" were wrong.

 

[MJO812]

12z Euro AI snow chances 

[MJO812]

Icon is a miss

 

Gfs leading the way ?

[vegan_edible]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon is a miss

 

Gfs leading the way ?

im not sure that model has ever been accurate. so it showing a non-event makes me more excited

[wdrag]

Suggest following the RGEM vs the prior cycle CMC to see Canadian trends.

No thread title change and no split into two events til tomorrow morning, if it looks possible.  

I continue sure that we'll see 1-2" NYC CP Sunday afternoon evening (I definitely can be wrong) and then I think the way the 5H vortex flies north mid week, and the flow backs on the east coast that a large scale event is probably coming up the eastern USA late 22-24. Dont want to mislead so follow the models and your own expert reads-ensembles, NWS and CPC guidance etc and go from there. My next post probably tomorrow morning.  The downer side: daily weekly EPS continues dry axis here 1/20-27.