Discussion (and OBS if any) for minor impact (possibly mdt) wintry mix sometime btwn Noon Sun Jan 19-Noon Wed Jan 22. Focused Inauguration Day and 21st

[MJO812]

Gfs west with Sunday wave but nothing substantial 

[MJO812]

Cmc rain 

[jm1220]

38 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

lol

New Orleans, Pensacola and Charleston with more seasonal snow than NYC. That would be just hilarious. Not even sure 79-80 could pull that off. 

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

serious question why is the ICON even posted here. 

 

6 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Desperation? Grasping at straws? Clinging to something?

It was posted in jest to emphasize how everything has been south of us this winter 

[RU848789]

21 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

wow the 168 hour icon 

C'mon at least give a hint as to what you're implying with a post like that...

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc rain 

That’s a ludicrous solution. Throw it right in the trash. We aren’t getting rain for that wave. It’s either a minor snow event or nada/OTS. That’s the CMC being way too amped again

[NEG NAO]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc rain 

the 540 line on the CMC is east of us not plain rain plus track of low is probably too far west after the arctic frontal passage also GFS farther east

 

[MANDA]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

It was posted in jest to emphasize how everything has been south of us this winter 

I know, my post was mainly sarcasm for what was a "Buckle Up" period.  Gut tells me cold is going to overwhelm the pattern.  Certainly not ruling out some light totals over the coming week but I think most of us are looking for something more meaningful.  Certainly whatever we get the next week or so will stick around for a while with the impending Arctic blast.

[Allsnow]

CMC will have something for mid week 

gfs will have something for the end of the week 

[NEG NAO]

CMC shows storm potential later next week too far out for specifics

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

CMC shows storm potential later next week too far out for specifics

Yes cmc Wednesday. Gfs Friday 

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yes cmc Wednesday. Gfs Friday 

I think its the same storm but with timing differences plus the GFS at 240 hours is not reliable

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

lol

Congratulations Gulf of Mexico (or whatever they're calling it these days)

[binbisso]

Cmc also gearing up at day 10. Models going to have a tough time figuring out all the s/w. I feel optimistic we will get at least one to hit us especially with the arctic cold coming up.

[forkyfork]

48 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

serious question why is the ICON even posted here. 

would be nice if this place had more people capable of discussing weather patterns instead of copy pasting snow maps

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

CMC shows storm potential later next week too far out for specifics

Gfs also for next weekend 

[Allsnow]

CMC is probably too amped for Sunday. 
 

Seems like a 2-4 inch event Sunday 

 

The eps at 00z weren’t exactly bullish but most of the guidance is trending towards the euro this afternoon 

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

would be nice if this place had more people capable of discussing weather patterns instead of copy pasting snow maps

sounds good - so what is your analysis of next weeks pattern - care to share ?

[Stormlover74]

56 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

serious question why is the ICON even posted here. 

 

13 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The ICON honestly from D5-8 the last month has been better than the GFS.  This may be a bit crazy for the moment though

 

[Allsnow]

For mid week, I believe the h5 set up favors the south. It will be hard for the system to turn the corner with the tpv position 

[EastonSN+]

32 minutes ago, H2O said:

day 7 storms and y'all still haven't learned.  Those gifs encapsulate everything.  There is no consistency in things that far out

 

30 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Sorry Stormtracker had to share with this audience it's hilarious!

[BoulderWX]

Between snow and especially ice coverage in the Deep South and up the EC, the 12z CMC is one of the crazier D10 solutions I’ve seen. 

[brooklynwx99]

GEPS looks good... bit less amped than the OP. i like the CMC as a west bound and the GFS as an east bound for now

[brooklynwx99]

yup, less amped for sure. solid run here

[wdrag]

WPC now had a 10-30% >2.5" snowfall Sunday-Sunday night... first time in a while this close to NYC.

I haven't checked, but might be good to check when we had our last 4+ in NYC.  

I just like all this cold.  If ends up 2" or less, it will fit past disappointments up here but I think we have a chance of something decent., 

[Allsnow]

Euro a littler weaker this run. A general 1-2 across the area 

[Allsnow]

12z euro crushes the mid week event south. 
 

It will have a storm for the end of the week which will probably get further north as the tpv moves out 

[winterwx21]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro a littler weaker this run. A general 1-2 across the area 

A little early to talk accumulations, but right now I'd go 1 to 3 for Sunday. CMC is obviously out to lunch with its warm solution. Hopefully we can get a couple inches on the ground for the cold next week ... it would really feel like deep winter. 

[donsutherland1]

44 minutes ago, wdrag said:

WPC now had a 10-30% >2.5" snowfall Sunday-Sunday night... first time in a while this close to NYC.

I haven't checked, but might be good to check when we had our last 4+ in NYC.  

I just like all this cold.  If ends up 2" or less, it will fit past disappointments up here but I think we have a chance of something decent., 

NYC’s last daily snowfall of 4” or more occurred on January 29, 2022 when 7.3” fell. The January 28-29, 2022 storm dumped 8.5” of snow.

[EastonSN+]

Disappointing EURO run, however only one run and will likely change as we move forward.