Discussion (and OBS if any) for minor impact (possibly mdt) wintry mix sometime btwn Noon Sun Jan 19-Noon Wed Jan 22. Focused Inauguration Day and 21st

[EWR757]

In reference to the 00Z models...

Google Graphcast shows about 5.6" for me (Bridgewater, NJ) during the Sunday evening event, ECMWF AIFS 3" and the operational ECMWF about 2.1".  The operational is further south and colder, while the Google Graphcast is north and maybe the precipitation may start off as rain?  850 temperatures are below 0 degrees C for the entire event but the 1000 mb temperature may be a tad warm at the onset, per the Google Graphcast model.

All of the models start precipitation mid-afternoon Sunday and it ends around midnight, so about 9 hours of precipitation.

[allgame830]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Everything became drier at 0z and 6z. Boring .

What are you talking about? It was said that the euro showed 2-4 for Sunday. 

[MJO812]

Just now, allgame830 said:

What are you talking about? It was said that the euro showed 2-4 for Sunday. 

Ticked east at 6z.

[allgame830]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ticked east at 6z.

You literally conflicting on what @Stormlover74 said a couple hours ago…. 2-4 is still 2-4” 

[EastonSN+]

So the 6z euro is a miss now?

[EastonSN+]

Actually just go to the MA forum they can post snow maps. 6z euro a general 1 to 4.

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

So the 6z euro is a miss now?

Still a decent hit with better amounts along the coast. 
 

lots of spread on the eps members with good hits, c-1 and misses 

[Allsnow]

Euro AI still a good hit for Sunday 

[Brian5671]

55 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Everything became drier at 0z and 6z. Boring .

Seasonal trend.

[Allsnow]

For the following storms it’s a hit for all 3 

 

hopefully it has a clue 

[EastonSN+]

Seems that the euro is most consistent with this storm while the Canadian seems to be most consistent with the larger follow up Storm. 

The GFS has been all over the place on all the events. 

 

[NEG NAO]

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

Good Wednesday morning everyone, Jan 15.  What I'm thinking.  If the afternoon ensembles confirm, I'll spit the headline into two threads..., primary Jan 19-early 20 and then later 22-24... but that one still is undecided for me.

Not a guarantee but to me this looks like a 1'- at worst 5" snow event, probably mostly Sunday afternoon-night, with a delayed ending possible Long Island/CT into midday Monday. NYC seems destined for an inch or 2 with initial melting on pavement Sunday afternoon, but becoming slippery  after sundown. I84 corridor for sure an inch, and maybe as much as 4 or 5", especially CT. Much colder Monday-Tuesday.

Next Wednesday-Friday Jan 22-24: a southeast USA winter storm likely with a potentially large amount of snow or ice. The northern fringe of the snow has a chance to eventually creep up to NJ-LI-NYC Thursday ish the 23rd. 

 

06Z GFS has a snow - heavy rain storm here which wasn't even shown on yesterdays 12Z

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Seems that the euro is most consistent with this storm while the Canadian seems to be most consistent with the larger follow up Storm. 

The GFS has been all over the place on all the events. 

 

Throw the gfs out 

 

the eps was definitely more enthusiastic for the 23rd then the op last night. 
 

The op still had a good storm for the following weekend 

[RU848789]

6Z was not good for us for the Sunday event with only the Euro showing some snow, but much less than at 0Z, while the GFS and ICON were whiffs.  

[RU848789]

33 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Actually just go to the MA forum they can post snow maps.

What do you mean by this?  I see plenty of snow maps in this forum.  

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

What do you mean by this?  I see plenty of snow maps in this forum.  

for some reason I can't post Tropical Tidbits maps here BUT Pivotal maps I can

[Allsnow]

Euro AI still 2-4 for the area perhaps more on LI 

[North and West]

Seasonal trend.

Bingo. Dry autumn and now a dry winter.

I STG, it’s going to be torrential rain all April to ruin the start of baseball season.


.

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, North and West said:

Bingo. Dry autumn and now a dry winter.

I STG, it’s going to be torrential rain all April to ruin the start of baseball season.


.

And we had a very wet December at the times it was too warm for snow. It’s one of those seasons where the fast Pacific flow is ruining any chances at amplification, and we have the trough position in a bad place w/no real WAR when we need it. Hopefully that changes soon but could very well be that we deal with more of the same boredom and misery. 

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, North and West said:

.

We still seem to be be flirting with drought. That's a problem.

[Allsnow]

12z icon is a carbon copy of the 06z euro for Sunday evening 

[snowman19]

18 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

We still seem to be be flirting with drought. That's a problem.

We are still officially in a solid drought. The only reason why it’s not noticeable right now is because it’s the dead of winter. If it continues into spring we will have problems, huge problems 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

12z icon is a carbon copy of the 06z euro for Sunday evening 

West of 6z

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

West of 6z

Yup, cold temps as well. Snow is falling as temps drop into the low 20’s 

[Allsnow]

lol

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

lol

South winter this year

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

lol

Sad but I'll take it.

[forkyfork]

wow the 168 hour icon 

[winterwarlock]

serious question why is the ICON even posted here. 

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

serious question why is the ICON even posted here. 

Desperation? Grasping at straws? Clinging to something?