Discussion (and OBS if any) for minor impact (possibly mdt) wintry mix sometime btwn Noon Sun Jan 19-Noon Wed Jan 22. Focused Inauguration Day and 21st

[HeadInTheClouds]

4 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

What did euro snow map look like?

c-2 for most. 

[mob1]

18Z Euro is pretty much 0.75-1.5" areawide. 

[romba]

16 minutes ago, mob1 said:

18Z Euro is pretty much 0.75-1.5" areawide. 

Of liquid? Lol

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, romba said:

Of liquid? Lol

Haha you wish! 

[Allsnow]

Euro is weak sauce 

 

 

[Allsnow]

I thought the eps were a bit more enthusiastic about Sunday night. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, MJO812 said:

 

Yeah it keeps going. Wrong I'm sure

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah it keeps going. Wrong I'm sure

Why is it wrong?

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why is it wrong?

It's the icon

[Stormlover74]

And nothing else close 

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's the icon

The ICON honestly from D5-8 the last month has been better than the GFS.  This may be a bit crazy for the moment though

[Stormlover74]

Gfs nada. Cmc rain for the coast. Good to have model consistency 

[Stormlover74]

Cmc looks like the icon except 50 miles west

[vegan_edible]

5 days out and so far we have a goldilocks situation (icon perfect, cmc rainer, gfs non existent). curious to see how the euro interprets this

[MJO812]

Cmc is going to show a big storm next week

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is going to show a big storm next week

2 feet LI to Philly

[RU848789]

OMG, when was the last time we had snowed like that when it was in the teens for the entire event?  And people know I don't like Kuchera, but hard to imagine not having 15:1 or higher ratios with snow crystal generation rates like that and low temps - but not the 40:1 ratios that Kuchera shows well NW of 95.  Still 8 days out but pretty to look at...

[NEG NAO]

CMC VS. GFS

[Stormlover74]

Now euros 2 to 4 for Sunday 

[H2Otown_WX]

49 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

CMC VS. GFS

CMC is on PCP

[Nibor]

Euro is flat with the second storm like the GFS. 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Euro is flat with the second storm like the GFS. 

A hit now for next weekend 

[Nibor]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

A hit now for next weekend 

Solid storm. Can kicked though. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Every global shows some precip, moderate to significant, except for the GFS. Go figure. 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

Every global shows some precip, moderate to significant, expect for the GFS. Go figure. 

with GFS least reliable model past 60 hours

[HeadInTheClouds]

10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

with GFS least reliable model past 60 hours

It's been trash. 

[wdrag]

Good Wednesday morning everyone, Jan 15.  What I'm thinking.  If the afternoon ensembles confirm, I'll spit the headline into two threads..., primary Jan 19-early 20 and then later 22-24... but that one still is undecided for me.

Not a guarantee but to me this looks like a 1'- at worst 5" snow event, probably mostly Sunday afternoon-night, with a delayed ending possible Long Island/CT into midday Monday. NYC seems destined for an inch or 2 with initial melting on pavement Sunday afternoon, but becoming slippery  after sundown. I84 corridor for sure an inch, and maybe as much as 4 or 5", especially CT. Much colder Monday-Tuesday.

Next Wednesday-Friday Jan 22-24: a southeast USA winter storm likely with a potentially large amount of snow or ice. The northern fringe of the snow has a chance to eventually creep up to NJ-LI-NYC Thursday ish the 23rd. 

 

[BoulderWX]

06z update: ICON and GFS are both dry with Sunday/monday wave. 

[North and West]

Eventually the -PNA and typical Nina warm February will come and we can finally announce time of death for this disaster of a winter. I couldn’t care less about a car topper or brief coating to half inch type event which is all we can seem to pull off. Insane how we’ll likely add more southern cities with significantly more snow than NYC by this time next week or so. I know it’s been colder than the last few winters but with little snow it just makes it more miserable. At least with 40s-50s you can go outside. 

.

[MJO812]

Everything became drier at 0z and 6z. Boring .