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Discussion (and OBS if any) for minor impact (possibly mdt) wintry mix sometime btwn Noon Sun Jan 19-Noon Wed Jan 22. Focused Inauguration Day and 21st

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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forkyfork
forkyfork

only 25 model cycles to go 

wdrag
wdrag

No answers...modeling variable but pretty sure of minor light snow event for our NYC subforum Sunday night-Monday. Light overrunning qpf of mostly under 0.3"... decent more than 10 to 1 snow ratios. G

MJO812
MJO812

He posted the EPS. Keep up.

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brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

Posted
Posted

as of right now the 19th looks like a light to potentially moderate event if the vort amps more as it swings around, which is totally possible. looks like greater potential around the 22nd with a phasing kind of look as the TPV eases and PNA ridge remains strong. more of a signal for some southern stream vorticity to get left behind for that timeframe as well

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-vort500_z500-7590400.thumb.png.05658c10eeef059920cb60520487da4c.png

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Cold but weaker 1-2 

The timing for this potential little snow wave seems to be moving up too. Euro and some other models now have it Sunday afternoon instead of late Sunday night into Monday. 

Let's hope we can pull off a light snow event Sunday and then a more significant one mid next week. Glad we have some things to track. 

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Thread continues as is worded... one event for sure...how much CP --will stay with 1-2 there, heavier west.

The 22nd-early 23rd... unsure if that will be this far nw.

Will rereview tomorrow morning,

19-20 looks real for a light event. As for the 23rd you are correct, that op EURO run has virtually no EPS support

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

19-20 looks real for a light event. As for the 23rd you are correct, that op EURO run has virtually no EPS support

Not true - EPS mean shows a general 1-2" event around the 23rd and one would expect a decent amount less on an ensemble mean, which surely has quite a few misses, than an Op at 9 days out.  

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

19-20 looks real for a light event. As for the 23rd you are correct, that op EURO run has virtually no EPS support

 

I think that event is another southern event.  The SE forum was worried about the FZRA and it moving NW I said there's a better chance that event goes December 89 than trends NW but its still far enough out and the first event impacts that one.  Depending how it evolves it might sharpen the trof too much in the East which would then prevent the wave from being able to eject from Texas across the Gulf.  The trof needs to be more meridional from DFW-ATL or you typically cannot eject the system and it buries. 

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

I think that event is another southern event.  The SE forum was worried about the FZRA and it moving NW I said there's a better chance that event goes December 89 than trends NW but its still far enough out and the first event impacts that one.  Depending how it evolves it might sharpen the trof too much in the East which would then prevent the wave from being able to eject from Texas across the Gulf.  The trof needs to be more meridional from DFW-ATL or you typically cannot eject the system and it buries. 

How can you discount the Euro solution 9 days out ? IMO this has as much of a chance of verifying  as what your saying has....

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus.png

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

How can you discount the Euro solution 9 days out ? IMO this has as much of a chance of verifying  as what your saying has....

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus.png

Day 8/9 has been the euros biggest downfall. It has been very accurate inside day 7

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Day 8/9 has been the euros biggest downfall. It has been very accurate inside day 7

of course you can say that day 9 is each models biggest downfall and also anybody making predictions regarding Day 9 is their biggest downfall...

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wdrag

wdrag

Posted
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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

19-20 looks real for a light event. As for the 23rd you are correct, that op EURO run has virtually no EPS support

Snowman,

Hope it works out.

fwiw... Just outside the window of the threaded second event (Noon 22nd) ... EPS conservative posi snow depth change attached.  This modeling is after 18z/22 into the 23rd. Here's the EPS,  probably biased by the big amount in the 12z/14 op...  but it's one of the better looks of 24 hr ensemble positive snow depth change in any 12z/14 ensemble the next 10 days here in the east.  

We have a powerful jet overhead above 500 MB, one of the strongest on record here in the northeast yesterday.

While highly unusual,  I wouldn't lock out the second event from speeding up 12 hours.  I dont have time to add all the high level jet graphics, but I think about this.  As you say, the greater non-likelihood is that this slides out just underneath us. 

On the other hand, while we get a good bite of cold 5H trough around the 21st, it may be pulling NNE so fast with subsequent ridging along the east coast allowing a more northward trend of the short wave emerging in the bottom of the trough  That's the hope in me.  

Anyway... we're still in the game.

Huge shift in the Canadian 5 days out in its 12z/14 cycle.  IF the EC is to go away for Sunday-Sunday night, I think we'll know with 2 or 3 cycles.   I kind of now think we're getting closer to consensus. 

 

 

Screen Shot 2025-01-14 at 3.47.00 PM.png

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kat5hurricane

kat5hurricane

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I have 4” or so, the White Christmas was nice of course but going into met winter mid-point at peak climo for snow with that much, when Nina winters usually torch in Feb, is very lousy at a minimum especially when places way south of us have gotten slammed and look to keep doing so. Hopefully one of these waves can produce something, otherwise we’ll go into Feb well below average. In the past few winters we’ve been able to make something happen in February, so there’s that. But besides that for me it’s just been miserable. The lack of snow is more tolerable with warmer conditions, this cold/windy/dry bare ground sucks. 

Agreed that cold and dry is the worst but we need the cold air around to have shots at snow even if they're only nickel and dime events. '13-'14 was kind of like this before the bigger events happened later that winter. This has been the coldest winter that I remember in a long time (barely below normal but colder than recent winters) and it's going to be cold for a while longer so I'll take my chances with that to greater the chances of snow.

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