Discussion (and OBS if any) for minor impact (possibly mdt) wintry mix sometime btwn Noon Sun Jan 19-Noon Wed Jan 22. Focused Inauguration Day and 21st

[donsutherland1]

50 minutes ago, wdrag said:

fwiw: Checking more 00z/12z Jan 12 EPS guidance.  I am thinking that we might need to get what we can from the first event 19-early 20 and may need to watch the bigger snow event pass off to our south around the 22nd?  

also fwiw... thinking 0.25-0.50 in that 19-22 date time frame so am asking for some of it be snow and useful.  This could change since we're 7-10 days out but I think conservative is best on dreaming snowfall and hope for good snow ratios when it does occur (presuming Sunday ish).  Am pretty sure it will be cold enough to stick in NYC Sunday night, if indeed qpf occurs,  which is maybe the more important uncerainty-timing.   

That said: have no plans to upgrade the thread title beyond what it is now (mainly minor event-possibly moderate), and hopefully eventually focus on one event when Thursday morning arrives. 

I'll check back Tomorrow and hopefully we're still in the game. 

I agree. The event on the 22nd kind of reminds me, at least right now, of the February 6-7, 1980 storm that dumped > 10" at Norfolk but very little up in the NYC area. Fortunately, that's still far out, so things can change. At least there is some storminess.

[Allsnow]

Euro AI 18z mod hit for Sunday 

 

has nothing for the mid week event as it’s well off the coast  

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro AI 18z mod hit for Sunday 

 

has nothing for the mid week event as it’s well off the coast  

 

[psv88]

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Most accurate model we have. Lock it in!

[MJO812]

GFS AI

[wdrag]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

It’s being analyzed on a Philly weather discord forum. The h5 is performing better inside day 7 but the precipitation is too smooth out like a ensemble 

Thank you. 

[MJO812]

Cutter on gfs

[MJO812]

Cmc 

[MJO812]

[NEG NAO]

[NEG NAO]

[NEG NAO]

there is a possibility this will turn into a minor event early next week similar to the last few - also the drought is continuing with little precip this month 0.10 inch at CP Norm 1.45

[wdrag]

Should I throw in the towel? Sighhh... NOT.  I'll attach 3 different countries ensemble modeling, totals by Noon Wednesday the 22nd.  You figure it out.  What I'm seeing is the USA is very conservative, the Euro in between and the Canadian gangbusters, especially considering since this is all POSITIVE SNOW DEPTH growth, taking into account temps when snow falls. This is not the larger 10-1 ratios.

Nevertheless, the cutter rain this weekend follow by little or,no snow option still lurks.  At the same time I cant quit on the 21st-22nd since something will be on going in the southeast USA. 

Therefore no change in the headline though for up here and I84, I think Sunday night looks to be my primary risk time.  That can change as we draw closer but D5 ensembles start with 12z/14 Tuesday cycle so am hoping the front end of whatever occurs is more or less resolved when we check later Tuesday.  I'll check back late today but offline most of the day after 8A. 

These 00z/13 maps dont have the legend attached but light blue 1+, darker blues 3+, magenta 6+.  More or less like that and NOT the heavier 10-1 ratios. 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. The event on the 22nd kind of reminds me, at least right now, of the February 6-7, 1980 storm that dumped > 10" at Norfolk but very little up in the NYC area. Fortunately, that's still far out, so things can change. At least there is some storminess.

Isn't it more like the February 1989 storm that was a big bust up here Don?

I don't remember anything from 1980 aside from it being below zero Christmas morning.

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Cutter on gfs

wait why is snowman sausaging your cutters? he should love them....

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Isn't it more like the February 1989 storm that was a big bust up here Don?

I don't remember anything from 1980 aside from it being below zero Christmas morning.

Because 1980 was awful for snow here. Everything was suppressed. 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Because 1980 was awful for snow here. Everything was suppressed. 

even in October 1979 when DC to Philly got a snowstorm!

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Isn't it more like the February 1989 storm that was a big bust up here Don?

I don't remember anything from 1980 aside from it being below zero Christmas morning.

The 1989 storm also missed, but the 500 mb pattern for that storm was different.

[Allsnow]

06z euro AI still a good hit for the 20th. 
 

It dosent have much after that until the end of the month. 

[RU848789]

Nice despite the 0Z Op showing little snow...

 

[snowman19]

24 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Nice despite the 0Z Op showing little snow...

 

After what the GFS/GEFS just did this past weekend I give its solutions zero consideration. I don’t care if it shows a raging cutter or a blizzard. It’s a horrific model. Even the CMC/GEPS schooled it 

[RU848789]

26 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

06z euro AI still a good hit for the 20th. 
 

It dosent have much after that until the end of the month. 

On Pivotal Premium, I can see that the 06 Euro AI has temps in the 20s with 0.3-0.4" of precip falling on 1/20, which is pretty obviously snow, but they don't have any snowfall maps (same for the GFS AI) so I have to guess at snow - do you have snowfall maps and if so on which service?  Just wondering if it's time to switch services.  Thanks.  

[RU848789]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

After what the GFS/GEFS just did this past weekend I give its solutions zero consideration. I don’t care if it shows a raging cutter or a blizzard. It’s a horrific model. Even the CMC/GEPS schooled it 

Not sure why you're talking about the GEFS in reply to my post on the EPS.  

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

After what the GFS/GEFS just did this past weekend I give its solutions zero consideration. I don’t care if it shows a raging cutter or a blizzard. It’s a horrific model. Even the CMC/GEPS schooled it 

He posted the EPS. Keep up.

[NEG NAO]

34 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Nice despite the 0Z Op showing little snow...

 

2 weeks away ?? Lets start a 1/27 thread-lol

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

On Pivotal Premium, I can see that the 06 Euro AI has temps in the 20s with 0.3-0.4" of precip falling on 1/20, which is pretty obviously snow, but they don't have any snowfall maps (same for the GFS AI) so I have to guess at snow - do you have snowfall maps and if so on which service?  Just wondering if it's time to switch services.  Thanks.  

I don’t have snowfall maps for the euro AI 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Not sure why you're talking about the GEFS in reply to my post on the EPS.  

I thought it was the GEFS. My fault

[MJO812]

Gfs will be southeast this run

[MJO812]

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like 06z AI euro