Discussion (and OBS if any) for minor impact (possibly mdt) wintry mix sometime btwn Noon Sun Jan 19-Noon Wed Jan 22. Focused Inauguration Day and 21st

[wdrag]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Good afternoon Walt. I posted any other thread how the GFS weekend/lost the cutter and has moved a little Southeast with the wave. Looks like the euro weekend/lost the cutter as well. It's plausible this Southeast trend/weakening of the northern low continues.

You all now have the snowy 12z/12 EC op.  many more changes-possible delays on the way including noticing a 12z/12 EC 12 hr 5H 12 HR HFC moving down the Rocky-intermountain west Monday morning.   

[NEG NAO]

This is a litttle odd the 12Z Euro develops a LP southwest of us on the 19th moving NE and the 06Z GFS does the same delivering a snow event BUT the 12Z GFS doesn't have it

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

This is a litttle odd the 12Z Euro develops a LP southwest of us on the 19th moving NE and the 06Z GFS does the same delivering a snow event BUT the 12Z GFS doesn't have it

7-8 days out this will change many times

[Allsnow]

Let’s miss on the 20th and then watch the Carolinas get crushed mid week 

 

jk btw 

[wdrag]

The fact that the EC has two different 4+ snow events for the east coast in 84 hours tells me  uncertainty and not placing all my marbles one storm.  Back at 5.

[Allsnow]

Strong support today for the 20th on the eps 

[Allsnow]

The mid week threat on the eps favors areas along the coast-out to sea 

[wdrag]

Hi... The 3PM CPC 6-10 day...   while not guaranteed, I think we're good for CP snow accumulation. 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Hi... The 3PM CPC 6-10 day...   while not guaranteed, I think we're good for CP snow accumulation. 

Get a rainy cutter a day ahead of a strong cold snap and boom this verifies. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Hi... The 3PM CPC 6-10 day...   while not guaranteed, I think we're good for CP snow accumulation. 

below normal temp and above normal precip is a good combo..... now we just need to get them synced up and the timing right....

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Get a rainy cutter a day ahead of a strong cold snap and boom this verifies. 

it doesn't look like a cutter pattern with the above normal precip right along the east coast and drier west and north of here.

although it could still happen, but it would be more likely if the wet anomalies were west and north of us.

[Allsnow]

Euro AI still likes Sunday into Monday at 12z 

[Allsnow]

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it doesn't look like a cutter pattern with the above normal precip right along the east coast and drier west and north of here.

although it could still happen, but it would be more likely if the wet anomalies were west and north of us.

We probably need to hope for the first wave on the 20th. The trend for the following week has been dry. The pac isn’t pulling back west enough. Its Going to get very cold locally next week 

[Allsnow]

FWIW the euro Ai at h5 is performing better then the euro op 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

FWIW the euro Ai at h5 is performing better then the euro op 

How about the Eps, if you happen to know?

[Volcanic Winter]

Ah more familiar territory for me. I’ll either be the southern jackpot zone or be cursing the taint/rain while NYC gets (hopefully) buried. Pretty much looks like OTS & fringed through an interior NNJ -> CNE type event are all on the table, so at least will make for some interesting tracking. 

[Allsnow]

51 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

How about the Eps, if you happen to know?

Idk. The AI qpf forecast isn’t very good 

[Allsnow]

18z gfs trending towards the other models for the 20th 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

18z gfs trending towards the other models for the 20th 

From Buffalo to LI in one run. Verbatim the track favors inland areas 

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

From Buffalo to LI in one run. Verbatim the track favors inland areas 

 

[EastonSN+]

5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Interesting development on the 12z GFS and CMC. Both models suits now have a great lakes low much further south than last runs. Wouldn't take much to get further south. Instead of one low with the precipitation going in the Canada, the initial wave in Canada is much weaker and the follow-up wave stronger. Next runs will be very interesting. 

 

[MJO812]

Wave 2

[Stormlover74]

Very close 

[Allsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Wave 2

Followed the euro with both waves 

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

FWIW the euro Ai at h5 is performing better then the euro op 

Is that personal observation today or recent events in January.  I haven't seen anything on verifying the EC AI.  Thanks.

For those who like cutter then cold and no snow.  Could happen .. we here in LI/NJ seem to be  between axes of heavier qpf (to our NW and SE) but am leaning that most if not all of us will see sort of snow acc.  Therefore the thread.   Yes... snow could miss us.  No guarantees. Am keeping that in mind as we head to D7 ensembles. 

[wdrag]

From WPC web page:  Dont know when it posted today and dont know what that means for any modeling etc..

Please note: Due to a water outage at our building, many computer systems have been shut down. Some of our products will not be updating until this problem is resolved. At this time, there is no estimate of when our systems will be back up. Thank you for your patience during this outage.

[MJO812]

Snow showers for Thursday 

[wdrag]

fwiw: Checking more 00z/12z Jan 12 EPS guidance.  I am thinking that we might need to get what we can from the first event 19-early 20 and may need to watch the bigger snow event pass off to our south around the 22nd?  

also fwiw... thinking 0.25-0.50 in that 19-22 date time frame so am asking for some of it be snow and useful.  This could change since we're 7-10 days out but I think conservative is best on dreaming snowfall and hope for good snow ratios when it does occur (presuming Sunday ish).  Am pretty sure it will be cold enough to stick in NYC Sunday night, if indeed qpf occurs,  which is maybe the more important uncerainty-timing.   

That said: have no plans to upgrade the thread title beyond what it is now (mainly minor event-possibly moderate), and hopefully eventually focus on one event when Thursday morning arrives. 

I'll check back Tomorrow and hopefully we're still in the game. 

[Allsnow]

29 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Is that personal observation today or recent events in January.  I haven't seen anything on verifying the EC AI.  Thanks.

For those who like cutter then cold and no snow.  Could happen .. we here in LI/NJ seem to be  between axes of heavier qpf (to our NW and SE) but am leaning that most if not all of us will see sort of snow acc.  Therefore the thread.   Yes... snow could miss us.  No guarantees. Am keeping that in mind as we head to D7 ensembles. 

It’s being analyzed on a Philly weather discord forum. The h5 is performing better inside day 7 but the precipitation is too smooth out like a ensemble 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

fwiw: Checking more 00z/12z Jan 12 EPS guidance.  I am thinking that we might need to get what we can from the first event 19-early 20 and may need to watch the bigger snow event pass off to our south around the 22nd?  

also fwiw... thinking 0.25-0.50 in that 19-22 date time frame so am asking for some of it be snow and useful.  This could change since we're 7-10 days out but I think conservative is best on dreaming snowfall and hope for good snow ratios when it does occur (presuming Sunday ish).  Am pretty sure it will be cold enough to stick in NYC Sunday night, if indeed qpf occurs,  which is maybe the more important uncerainty-timing.   

That said: have no plans to upgrade the thread title beyond what it is now (mainly minor event-possibly moderate), and hopefully eventually focus on one event when Thursday morning arrives. 

I'll check back Tomorrow and hopefully we're still in the game. 

We aren’t going to get both waves. It’s either one or the other imo