Climate Change Deniers Exploit Catastrophic CA Wildfires to Spread Disinformation

[donsutherland1]

Even as the flames of wildfires ringing the Los Angeles area in hellish fashion have consumed some 4,000 structures, climate change deniers are exploiting the catastrophe to push disinformation.

Let's take a quick look. Neither Wielicki nor Martz has sufficient understanding of weather and climate to analyze what has actually taken place. Instead, both push the common fallacy that rainfall in the past (last 20 winters, in this case) means there can't possibly be a drought, much less severe wildfire conditions.

Now the facts:

1. Los Angeles County is in the midst of a moderate or severe drought, as is much of southern California. Moreover, drought conditions were growing rapidly worse. The latest data:

2. Rainfall in past winters means nothing. That rainfall is in the distant past. What matters is how much rain has recently fallen. Many locations have had either their second lowest or lowest rainfall on record since June 1. Through yesterday, Blythe has gone a record 282 consecutive days without measurable rainfall. Lancaster has gone 238 consecutive days without measurable rainfall (second longest such streak).

3. Flash droughts, which can develop in as few as five days are becoming increasingly frequent due to climate change. Two papers:

A global transition to flash droughts under climate change

Global projections of flash drought show increased risk in a warming climate

Increased risk of flash droughts with raised concurrent hot and dry extremes under global warming

4. Climate change is also driving an increase in the vapor pressure deficit leading to more intense and extreme wildfires. One paper:

Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States

5. The literature has made abundantly clear that climate change is leading to an increased wildfire risk in southern California. A key paper:

The season for large fires in Southern California is projected to lengthen in a changing climate

Two Key Points:

1. Neither person cited in the opening has the background knowledge or information to make an informed judgment about weather, climate, or the antecedent conditions responsible for southern California's catastrophic wildfires. Their reasoning about past precipitation was fallacious. Both had no idea that the region was currently in a drought or any awareness that drought products exist and can readily be accessed by the public. They appear to have no knowledge of the concept of flash droughts, thus there flawed argument about past winters' rainfall. They are unfamiliar with the literature on  the role of climate change in driving flash droughts, increased vapor pressure deficits, and on the wildfire risk to southern California.

2. At a time of great danger and terrible tragedy, such ill-informed social media accounts should refrain from pushing disinformation, if just for ethical reasons. Their misleading people--including those at risk of the wildfires or victims of the fires--can put lives at risk. It can also increase the emotional distress being experienced among those who have already lost much in the raging fires.

[chubbs]

David Swain has a number posts which describe the role of climate change in the LA fire. He references a couple of additional papers: 1) Fire growth speed is increasing in the US; and, 2} A new paper on hydroclimate whiplash, either wet-to-dry or dry-to-wet cycling. As expected, hydroclimate whiplash is increasing around the world with climate change. Per graphic below, The LA fires are a good example.

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk5737

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-024-00624-z

[donsutherland1]

For World Weather Attribution's/Clmate Central's 2024 annual report:

https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/handle/10044/1/116443

 

[donsutherland1]

11 hours ago, chubbs said:

David Swain has a number posts which describe the role of climate change in the LA fire. He references a couple of additional papers: 1) Fire growth speed is increasing in the US; and, 2} A new paper on hydroclimate whiplash, either wet-to-dry or dry-to-wet cycling. As expected, hydroclimate whiplash is increasing around the world with climate change. Per graphic below, The LA fires are a good example.

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk5737

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-024-00624-z

Dr. Swain is an outstanding and knowledgeable source. I'm glad to see that his work is gaining more attention and that even CNN gave him some time.

[chubbs]

I moved my family away two years ago because, as California’s climate kept growing drier, hotter and more fiery, I feared that our neighborhood would burn. But even I didn’t think fires of this scale and severity would raze it and other large areas of the city this soon. And yet images of Altadena this week show a hellscape, like a landscape out of Octavia Butler’s uncannily prescient climate novel “Parable of the Sower.”

One lesson climate change teaches us again and again is that bad things can happen ahead of schedule. Model predictions for climate impacts have tended to be optimistically biased. But now, unfortunately, the heating is accelerating, outpacing scientists’ expectations.

We must face the fact that no one is coming to save us, especially in disaster-prone places such as Los Angeles, where the risk of catastrophic wildfire has been clear for years. And so many of us face a real choice — to stay or to leave. I chose to leave.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/10/opinion/la-fires-los-angeles-wildfires.html?unlocked_article_code=1.oU4.uI8e.voMxKYiiN72M&smid=bs-share

[donsutherland1]

12 hours ago, chubbs said:

I moved my family away two years ago because, as California’s climate kept growing drier, hotter and more fiery, I feared that our neighborhood would burn. But even I didn’t think fires of this scale and severity would raze it and other large areas of the city this soon. And yet images of Altadena this week show a hellscape, like a landscape out of Octavia Butler’s uncannily prescient climate novel “Parable of the Sower.”

One lesson climate change teaches us again and again is that bad things can happen ahead of schedule. Model predictions for climate impacts have tended to be optimistically biased. But now, unfortunately, the heating is accelerating, outpacing scientists’ expectations.

We must face the fact that no one is coming to save us, especially in disaster-prone places such as Los Angeles, where the risk of catastrophic wildfire has been clear for years. And so many of us face a real choice — to stay or to leave. I chose to leave.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/10/opinion/la-fires-los-angeles-wildfires.html?unlocked_article_code=1.oU4.uI8e.voMxKYiiN72M&smid=bs-share

Apparently, the climate change denier who had no idea that drought products exist (and no idea southern California was in a drought), much less knowledge of flash droughts, has attacked Dr. Kalmus's op-ed. In doing so, he just further exposed that he is essentially illiterate on weather and climate. He has no conception that the fossil fuel burning leads to a warming climate, greater vapor pressure deficits, and increased frequency of drought/emergence of flash drought. All of those antecedent conditions ensure that any fires that start--be they from lightning or human-causes (accidental or otherwise)--will be more intense, more extensive, and more severe.

[Silver Meteor]

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2025/01/why-la-wildfires-have-little-to-with.html

[chubbs]

Whenever there is a climate-related catastrophe, deniers have to develop a story-line to protect their followers worldview. The story only has to be credible to skeptics/deniers, a low bar. Martz and Mass, are missing the main climate drivers for this event, but that's OK, their followers don't know the drivers either, and they readily accept any excuse to deny.

Of course climate change isn't the only factor or the "cause" for this event. People do risky/dumb things and are always going to do dumb things. The fact that people do risky things is another reason to avoid climate change, just makes the risky things worse.  Denying climate change encourages risk taking. Not a good approach when climate impacts are ramping and our infrastructure is becoming increasingly unsuitable for the climate we have.