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1/10-11 super awesome winter SE OBS thread


strongwxnc
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Mesoscale Discussion 0033
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0534 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and northern South Carolina into central North Carolina

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 102334Z - 110330Z

SUMMARY...Heavier freezing rain rates will continue to spread into northern South Carolina into central North Carolina through the evening hours. .06 inch/3 hour rates are expected.

DISCUSSION...Low-level warm-air advection continues to intensify across GA into SC ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. While a wintry mix is ongoing across central portions of NC into SC, the continued WAA in the 850-700 mb layer will encourage freezing rain to become the predominant mode of wintry precipitation into the evening hours, as evident via 22Z RAP forecast soundings and 23Z mesoanalysis. Surface observations depict an increase in freezing rain already underway across northern SC into central NC, with heavier ice accretion rates likely this evening. Furthermore, high-resolution model guidance also shows a high likelihood of .06 in/3 h ice accretion rates, especially in the 00-06Z time frame.

..Squitieri.. 01/10/2025
 

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7 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

What would be the mechanism or dynamic pushing it back?

I have no idea, all the Mets on Twitter seem to think once it changes over it will be all sleet. But the Hires NAM has the same progression, so I wouldn't totally discount it

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