1-10-11-25 Western Whopper, Mid-state Masher, Foothills Finger? OBS/Pics

[tnweathernut]

I will note this storm underperformed in a lot of areas in TN, even though most in the state saw at least an inch of snow.  Impressive because of the amount of land blanketed by snow in TN, KY, MS, AL, GA and VA.
 

Widespread yes!  Mid-south mauler, no.  
 

Which model was the best from 3-4 days out?  I’d say the regular Euro.  

[zcarland]

Glad you are posting.  Stay with it.  It is a great(sometimes frustrating) hobby!

Care to explain the down sloping part to me?


.

[Knoxtron]

14 hours ago, Uncle Nasty said:

What was your final total for the storm? I'm sure it was pretty good before it compacted down. If the roads are ok, we are driving up to our property tomorrow and take some snow pics. 

We ended up just shy of 7, 2 inches of powder on top of a crunchy ice sheet

 

Been plowing our main road for the last 6 hours, nearly passable with 4wd. Chains are a must

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just saw something interesting in the upslope flow satellite and radar. Some little lee side meso vortices formed as snow bands moved into the eastern valley from the Cumberland plateau and hugher elevations of SW VA:

 

 

The most pronounced one to me moves from just south of Cumberland Gap toward Greene County:

[John1122]

11 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I will note this storm underperformed in a lot of areas in TN, even though most in the state saw at least an inch of snow.  Impressive because of the amount of land blanketed by snow in TN, KY, MS, AL, GA and VA.
 

Widespread yes!  Mid-south mauler, no.  
 

Which model was the best from 3-4 days out?  I’d say the regular Euro.  

I'd lean to the Euro AI. It was pretty consistent and basically exact in it's totals/temps. The Euro at 12 hours ended up rightish. 

[*Flash*]

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

One thing I also noticed about the whole stomr yesterday was that as the now infamous snow hole was forming east of Nashville the snow was intensifying as clouds where thickening to the north over Ohio and Michigan:

Early hours of yesterday morning, just as the storm was approaching  east TN:

Everything looks like it is a go.

 

Watch what happens later that morning into the early afternoon:

 

It looks to me like the upper low dropping in over Minnesota starts to drop in creates more forcing up that way. The strengthening jet does try to help later, but ultimately there's a dryslot disconnect between the southern moisture and the much more wound up ULL to the north. 

Euro was emphasizing that ULL feature a lot more than the GFS. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

21 minutes ago, zcarland said:

Care to explain the down sloping part to me?


.

Here is a graphic for both up and downsloping. It is a little more dramatic in the graphic than what we see in East TN, but the general idea is there. 

Here is the local view red = higher elevations, green circle = valley

[Daniel Boone]

13 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

One thing I also noticed about the whole stomr yesterday was that as the now infamous snow hole was forming east of Nashville the snow was intensifying as clouds where thickening to the north over Ohio and Michigan:

Early hours of yesterday morning, just as the storm was approaching  east TN:

Everything looks like it is a go.

 

Watch what happens later that morning into the early afternoon:

 

It looks to me like the upper low dropping in over Minnesota starts to drop in creates more forcing up that way. The strengthening jet does try to help later, but ultimately there's a dryslot disconnect between the southern moisture and the much more wound up ULL to the north. 

Euro was emphasizing that ULL feature a lot more than the GFS. 

Yeah, instead of the Southern Low pulling strength from the Northern one, the Northern ine zapped from it. Imagine if each System had been oriented properly for us, and phased into one big Bomb, what a Storm that would of been. 

[Daniel Boone]

Wound up with 3.5 inchs Total here. Few Flurries still around.

[John1122]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, instead of the Southern Low pulling strength from the Northern one, the Northern ine zapped from it. Imagine if each System had been oriented properly for us, and phased into one big Bomb, what a Storm that would of been. 

That's more what the GFS tried to do, but the Euro, correctly, kept showing that phase missing.

[Daniel Boone]

23 minutes ago, John1122 said:

That's more what the GFS tried to do, but the Euro, correctly, kept showing that phase missing.

Exactly. Opposite of what happened and Euro. 

[Grothar of Herndon]

Total 6.5” 2” before dry slot and 4.5” after dry slot. Dry slot was approximately 4 hours

[Kentucky]

2 1/2" here in Corbin, started out great with no dry air initially but a dry slot for the ages quickly arrived and basically stayed for 3/4 of the event. The banding at the end really saved this event from being a complete dumpster fire for me. Hats off to everyone that makes this forum, the go-to spot for regional weather info. Hoping to cash in again, seems the SE ridge can always make it or break it for us.

JKL initial thoughts on what happened here, match what others have already posted here. 

"definitely battled dry air yesterday, and figuring out exactly why will be a part of our post-event analysis efforts. One potential culprit could be downsloping winds, another could be jet streak dynamics"

 

[TellicoWx]

5.5" was my final total. Wonder if their data is going to be low due to measurements counting the ice compaction during the event.

 

MRX:

[John1122]

They are way off here, which is normal. I've noticed when they do these maps, if someone sends in a measurement half way through an event, they still use it and put it on maps.

[nrgjeff]

Either that or they check at 11:59 pm in which case everything got compacted. Yeah I see the snow and snow on ground, but I got 5.5 inches in three very different spots in our 'hood.

This was at peak fluff and quarters ripping. It immediately settled with the dreaded sleet and then light freezing rain. 

That said, we hit snow stretch goal before the mixer mayhem, so I'm happy with the event in KCHA

16 minutes ago, John1122 said:

 if someone sends in a measurement half way through an event, they still use it and put it on maps.

17 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

5.5" was my final total. Wonder if their data is going to be low due to measurements counting the ice compaction during the event.

 

[Uncle Nasty]

We ended up just shy of 7, 2 inches of powder on top of a crunchy ice sheet
 
Been plowing our main road for the last 6 hours, nearly passable with 4wd. Chains are a must

We drove up to our property yesterday. Someone did a really good job keeping Window Rock Rd. passable. I'm guessing some local individuals helped as well because we saw a smaller, compact tractor with a plow on the front. It had  slid off the road on a hill near an embankment. When we left to return to Ooltewah,  a flatbed was there about to pull it out. Snow depth was wonderful on the brow property. Depth was roughly 4" where the trees were thickest. Away from the trees in the more open areas, it was compacted down like you said to 6" or so.  I forgot my ruler.  It was a beautiful winter wonderland! Getting off topic a but, but do you have any local recommendations for a good builder? Here are a few pics we took. Beautiful scenery everywhere. The picture with my wife and the valley below is where we would like to do something. Several deer tracks in the snow all over. It was beautiful. Took a few pics of someone's frozen pond, nice big field near the bluff of someone elses property.
The SxS and 4 wheelers were out in full force having a blast! Temp on the Jeep from Ooltewah all the way to Soddy was a solid 34°. It never wavered. Top of the mountain it was 25°. Sorry for the pic overload, I just wanted to share.




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[ShawnEastTN]

5.5 was my total twice. I sent in my final spotter report about 10 minutes after I went over to sleet and freezing rain and didn't report again after that, at that point I measured 5.5, right at the end of the fluffy snow, then I got light sleet and freezing rain for several hours and it compacted to 4 inches, but then the back side of the storm I got additional fluffy accumulations of 1.5" which brought me back up to 5.5 before if finally came to a complete end. I do wonder how many reports were after compaction that was ingested into their data. I knew once it switched compaction would occur so wanted to get my final measurement right at that point.

[John1122]

12 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

5.5 was my total twice. I sent in my final spotter report about 10 minutes after I went over to sleet and freezing rain and didn't report again after that, at that point I measured 5.5, right at the end of the fluffy snow, then I got light sleet and freezing rain for several hours and it compacted to 4 inches, but then the back side of the storm I got additional fluffy accumulations of 1.5" which brought me back up to 5.5 before if finally came to a complete end. I do wonder how many reports were after compaction that was ingested into their data. I knew once it switched compaction would occur so wanted to get my final measurement right at that point.
 

In that case, you got 7 inches! That's why snowboards with wipe offs work best. Eliminates a lot of compacting and issues of that type.

[Knoxtron]

Those are awesome pics @Uncle Nasty! I love it up here, it's truly a hidden treasure. I find we average 10-12° cooler in winter (other than really cold lows) and around 15° in summer with a never ending breeze. Looks like you will have a front row view of the hangliders too! It's amazing how high above the brow they will get

 

I have struggled myself finding a good builder in this area, being relatively remote. There's a new high end subdivision near me with 6+ houses under construction (snowy meadows), ill try and get their info and PM you.

[Uncle Nasty]

39 minutes ago, Knoxtron said:

Those are awesome pics @Uncle Nasty! I love it up here, it's truly a hidden treasure. I find we average 10-12° cooler in winter (other than really cold lows) and around 15° in summer with a never ending breeze. Looks like you will have a front row view of the hangliders too! It's amazing how high above the brow they will get

 

I have struggled myself finding a good builder in this area, being relatively remote. There's a new high end subdivision near me with 6+ houses under construction (snowy meadows), ill try and get their info and PM you.

Thank you!

[ShawnEastTN]

In that case, you got 7 inches! That's why snowboards with wipe offs work best. Eliminates a lot of compacting and issues of that type.

Didn't really think of that. Think next storm I'll switch to that method, makes sense now that I think about it.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

GOES 16 Day cloud phase snowfall imagery this PM:

[John1122]

55 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

In that case, you got 7 inches! That's why snowboards with wipe offs work best. Eliminates a lot of compacting and issues of that type.

Didn't really think of that. Think next storm I'll switch to that method, makes sense now that I think about it.

NWS recommends cleaning the board after each measurement and just adding it up. I usually measure every 3 hours in heavy events. To get snow depth, use a second board and  don't clean it.

[Daniel Boone]

21 minutes ago, John1122 said:

NWS recommends cleaning the board after each measurement and just adding it up. I usually measure every 3 hours in heavy events. To get snow depth, use a second board and  don't clean it.

Yeah, that's the problem with many "official" Reports even now ; they don't measure properly. Pennington gap Station a perfect example . They only measure whenever they decide to. I asked Employees at the City Plant that work there. Terrible ! That Data, as well as the other Station Data is fed into the Model Ingest System and used in the Models Output.! It absolutely burns me up. It's no wonder Models are as they are in our Area. The Terrain makes it hard enough to Forecast but, flawed Data makes it worse and should be rectified if possible. QC. Btw. I am at 12.6 Inches for the Season officially now.