1-10-11-25 Western Whopper, Mid-state Masher, Foothills Finger? OBS/Pics

[TellicoWx]

HRRR and RAP both redevelop precip over plateau and valley. They both show as snow, problem is the sounding is bone dry in the DGZ, so would actually fall as freezing rain/drizzle (0.2-0.3) QPF....definitely not what we need on top of the snow covered roads.

[TellicoWx]

Need some higher rates to overcome that ex. NW corner AL under better returns reporting snow..while several reports in Mid TN under the week returns are freezing drizzle

[Daniel Boone]

Steady moderate snow here in Pennington gap now. Made a run out to get a Pizza.  Roads are snow covered in area's.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like the warm nose may be eroding south and east  over Cumberland county in the last few frames of HTX CC:

[John1122]

Steady quarters and nickels falling here. No mixing issues but not terribly heavy rates, about 1/2 inch an hour probably.

[Stovepipe]

I had the freezing drizzle/mist earlier then it changed to moderate sleet.  It'll be interesting to see if these heavier returns are more sleet or snow.  Either much preferred over zr.  Looks like the HRRR was correct in terms of radar reflections as it's filling in nicely after the lull.

[John1122]

Looks like maybe some banding working along the Plateau now.

[WinterWonderland]

4 minutes ago, WinterWonderland said:

This dry slot stuff confuses the crap out of me when the radar is showing snow. 

Actually just went outside and there's a light rain falling. Is it expected to turn to snow in my area, I hope? I guess the ol warm nose decided to move north of I-40. I'm in Oak Ridge.

[Vol4Life]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Steady quarters and nickels falling here. No mixing issues but not terribly heavy rates, about 1/2 inch an hour probably.

As I said earlier…was there ever a doubt!! lol!

[John1122]

Just now, WinterWonderland said:

Actually just went outside and there's a light rain falling. Is it expected to turn to snow in my area, I hope? I guess the ol warm nose decided to move north of I-40. I'm in Oak Ridge.

You're likely to get some freezing rain then it will turn back to snow.

[Daniel Boone]

Just now, WinterWonderland said:

Actually just went outside and there's a light rain falling. Is it expected to turn to snow in my area, I hope? I guess the ol warm nose decided to move north of I-40. I'm in Oak Ridge.

You should switch back over shortly. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Looks like maybe some banding working along the Plateau now.

Yeah, going to get some heavy rates at times. 

[Runman292]

5 minutes ago, WinterWonderland said:

Actually just went outside and there's a light rain falling. Is it expected to turn to snow in my area, I hope? I guess the ol warm nose decided to move north of I-40. I'm in Oak Ridge.

I thought I would see snow when I went out, but it's the dreaded freezing rain right now. I'm hoping it will turn back to snow soon. I thought we would have been north enough to see all snow.

[TellicoWx]

If rates can fill in...wouldn't be surprised if @John1122 and  central/north plateau can squeeze out another 2-4...poss. 6 if everything lines up right. 1-3...poss. 4 central valley NE TN. But that's taking HRRR/RAP at face value for soundings/qpf

[PowellVolz]

Some of you with more intellect than me chime in please…. I don’t know if the Euro got this right but this system seems to have sheared out like it had been saying. Seems like the upper trough didn’t phase with the southern stream, or it was a very late phase. The ULJ is running over the top of the precipitation to our east while the trough is lagging behind in WTn. We still should be in the right exit of the trough as it moves through later on. So when the trough moves through, it can lift whatever moisture is left and wring it out in a NW flow situation. Thoughts?

[John1122]

It's a worst of both worlds situation re models. The Euro was right with low QPF for me but the hi-res/NAM nest was right about the warm nose for the folks to the south and the NAM was right about the epic dry slot. The Euro kept everything cold. All in all, it's snow map will end up pretty close most likely. Fortunately the Euro's correct call about snow totals really boosted our western and southern valley folks.

[PowellVolz]

Walked outside… getting a sleet storm rn. Measured right at 3” on top of my trash can. 

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

Some of you with more intellect than me chime in please…. I don’t know if the Euro got this right but this system seems to have sheared out like it had been saying. Seems like the upper trough didn’t phase with the southern stream, or it was a very late phase. The ULJ is running over the top of the precipitation to our east while the trough is lagging behind in WTn. We still should be in the right exit of the trough as it moves through later on. So when the trough moves through, it can lift whatever moisture is left and wring it out in a NW flow situation. Thoughts?

That's pretty much what happened..think the exact interaction with the GL low kinda screwed enough with the whole setup to keep this from being an even bigger event as some of the GFS runs showed.

[TellicoWx]

As those heavier returns over middle TN move overhead...more reports of snow now popping up.

[ShawnEastTN]

2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

As those heavier returns over middle TN move overhead...more reports of snow now popping up.

Fingers crossed that will amp up more as it has been doing and give us all a bit of additional accumulations.

[Stovepipe]

3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

As those heavier returns over middle TN move overhead...more reports of snow now popping up.

I sure hope that's how it unfolds here.  Getting some pretty heavy sleet at the moment.

[Greyhound]

Just a tad over 1.5” in Fountain City/Knoxville. Currently have freezing rain that has developed a crunchy coating on top of the snow.


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[Coach B]

3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

As those heavier returns over middle TN move overhead...more reports of snow now popping up.

I have been drizzle and light sleet most of the afternoon, but that final band is all snow with the temp dropping back to 32. Total was 2.5" mostly this morning before the dry slot and sleet worked in. 

[John1122]

Still all snow but it's just not as heavy as it looks like it should be based on radar. 

[*Flash*]

About 5" in the Bluff. I expect slightly higher totals to come out of central Williamson, maybe some of the higher elevations in Davidson. I don't recall snowless conditions since the event got going here around 6 am CT. I mentioned last night on my Facebook weather page how I thought 6-8" was a little bullish and that 4-6" with locally higher amounts was arguably a better call. I think that's where the non-warm-nosed sections of midstate is heading. 

[housemtnTN]

Sleet/small flakes in Mascot for the past 30 mins or so.

[Daniel Boone]

Getting slammed now in Jonesville 

[Daniel Boone]

Thick dime and niclke sized Flakes 

[Kasper]

Heavy freezing rain and Sleet in Athens, I suspect will change back soon


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[PowellVolz]

17 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

I sure hope that's how it unfolds here.  Getting some pretty heavy sleet at the moment.

Same thing here up the road. Pouring the sleet with a little snow