PowellVolz Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 37 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: I've really enjoyed this backside stuff. That was not a euphemism. You been out any? Surprised how bad 33 is and Emory worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 How much compaction do you all think? At least 1” overall? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 10 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: How much compaction do you all think? At least 1” overall? Yeah I think for me was about 1 1/2 inch compaction. I had a few heavier freezing rain showers mixed in with the freezing drizzle and sleet. Still some light snow all the way back to Nashville yet so maybe get light snow off and on tonight for some time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Still snowing lightly here despite nothing being on radar. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Surprised at how good the under the radar, backside snow is. Small flakes, but pretty steady and easily visible. Usually have to squint real hard to see it at night. lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 hours ago, bearman said: Send Pictures I can’t figure out how to show you all I have is a video let me see if a screen shot of the video will actually attach. One moment! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 hours ago, bearman said: Send Pictures So, they won’t upload. But I uploaded it to Imgur I just can’t figure out how to embed it so here’s a link to the video. Hopefully you can actually tell how big the flakes were bc honestly I feel like the video doesn’t do them justice at all. Some of these were for sure like half dollar sized. SNOW VIDEO! CLICK ME! 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just measured in several places in my yard and even with the round of freezing rain and compaction it caused I have 4 and 1/4 inches. I say that the storm was, as forcast in my area. It was the low end of 4 to 6 but never the less a good forcast, right down to possible warm nose reaching to the 1-40 corridor. Thanks to everyone that prayed in regards to my surgery. God"s peace to me is never more evident than on a snowy walk with everything covered and white. Even with the surgery I went for that walk tonight. Still snowing very lightly here. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: So, they won’t upload. But I uploaded it to Imgur I just can’t figure out how to embed it so here’s a link to the video. Hopefully you can actually tell how big the flakes were bc honestly I feel like the video doesn’t do them justice at all. Some of these were for sure like half dollar sized. SNOW VIDEO! CLICK ME! Great video, love when it falls in huge chunks like that! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 11 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: So, they won’t upload. But I uploaded it to Imgur I just can’t figure out how to embed it so here’s a link to the video. Hopefully you can actually tell how big the flakes were bc honestly I feel like the video doesn’t do them justice at all. Some of these were for sure like half dollar sized. SNOW VIDEO! CLICK ME! Video or pictures never do full justice to flake size or rate of fall. Great video! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Got just over 3 inches of snow at my house in Greene County with light snow still falling. Considering this was a system with southerly flow over the mountains, I'm satisfied with the results. Fortunately the downslope was actually pretty minimal for my area. Camp Creek never reported downslope winds. There was a brief period in southwestern Greene County with southerly winds and a brief temperature response. I'm not sure how that affected totals in that area. The core of the 850mb winds staying south prevented this from being a more significant downslope problem for more of the county. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I measured 3 1/2 inches in several places with a solid layer of freezing rain in the middle of it that I had to punch through. If it wasn't for that, I think I would have wound up in the 4-6 forecast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Still have light to moderate at times snow falling. There is definitely an 1-1.5" solid crust layer sandwiched between fluff. Going to be a block of ice once it begins melting off. Picked up 5.5" with cleaning snow board periodically...best I could keep track of with the sleet and freezing rain period. Picked up another .25-.5 in last hour with this low level moisture. I left it on the board, and will count it in morning (wanna see how much extra this wrings out). Considering I was only showing an 1" on models due to being in downslope hole, big win here. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricaneguy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Finished with 3” in Greeneville. All and all not bad. Still not what I hoped but did well overall in comparison to the region and way better than last year. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 Seems to be over unless that small band near Nashville makes it here. Ended up with 4 inches. Very powdery. No sleet, no freezing rain. Roughly an inch over 7 hours, then 3 inches in 4 hours to close it out. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 It's currently 27.1 with a dp of 24.4. The day ended with a total of 2.7 inches. Since then a final 0.1 inches have slipped to the surface. It would be fair to consider the event here an underperformance though not quite a bust as the storm had strong effects on travel and had built upon the last storm. I suspect some NW flakes may have something to say about it later tonight or tomorrow but as of the last hour it's been drizzling. Not even 37 N was completely safe from the WAA haha. The primary issue was the weak precip shield whether it was lack of moisture or limited lift. The day was beautiful and with this final glaze the half foot snowpack will only become more resilient. It's been fun seeing the results of this one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Ended up with 2-2.5" of snow. It was a battle all the way. The amped models missed badly IMBY. The NAM was never right....even its last run was amped. The RGEM was the closest yet again. Lower totals around TRI had very little to do with downsloping and more to do with the storm just didn't make it far enough north and/or we got dry slotted. The actual storm for this area never looked even remotely close to anything modeling had outputted. SW VA did better as elevation helps with incoming southerly flow coupled with lift from higher elevation. They also benefited from those last streamers which went west and north of the western edges of TRI. It is possible the Eastman/Domtar bubble was likely legit at fault on this one - you could see KPT fill in last on radar. That constant heat island is always a bear when we are dealing with virga and/or marginal temps. Great to see Chattanooga folks with a great storm. Almost half a foot ain't bad! TRI should have a few more chances before this pattern runs out of steam later this month. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I got up around 6am to let our dogs out and noticed light snow falling. Three hours later and it’s still coming down. Small tiny flakes, but a consistent light rate. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Strong snow showers have returned this morning, conditions remain ideal with a temp of 26 and dp of 22. Visibility is down to half a mile which I'd consider moderate. The status of the road has been an ongoing battle all night with it starting to turn white again. The trucks will be back in force soon hopefully. No measurements yet but all spots are north of 6inches deep I'd estimate. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zcarland Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Can anyone explain to me, in a dumbed down way, why these systems are prone to under perform in like the TRI area. Is it dry slotting? If so, what is that exactly?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 13 minutes ago, zcarland said: Can anyone explain to me, in a dumbed down way, why these systems are prone to under perform in like the TRI area. Is it dry slotting? If so, what is that exactly? . This is a question better suited for carver but I think a big factor in it (not all) comes down to bad luck over the past decade. One factor that can limit systems is increased distance from the gulf and maybe some slight rain shadowing from the blue ridge. That ignores generally more favorable historic climatology overall though. As for the models I don't know if it's recency bias but they do seem to provide more amped solutions than reality. (though part of that is the illusion of attributing all snowfall as accumulation which doesn't account for mixing, compression, and surface melt.) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 26 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Ended up with 2-2.5" of snow. It was a battle all the way. The amped models missed badly IMBY. The NAM was never right....even its last run was amped. The RGEM was the closest yet again. Lower totals around TRI had very little to do with downsloping and more to do with the storm just didn't make it far enough north and/or we got dry slotted. The actual storm for this area never looked even remotely close to anything modeling had outputted. SW VA did better as elevation helps with incoming southerly flow coupled with lift from higher elevation. They also benefited from those last streamers which went west and north of the western edges of TRI. It is possible the Eastman/Domtar bubble was likely legit at fault on this one - you could see KPT fill in last on radar. That constant heat island is always a bear when we are dealing with virga and/or marginal temps. Great to see Chattanooga folks with a great storm. Almost half a foot ain't bad! TRI should have a few more chances before this pattern runs out of steam later this month. You ended up doing better than me.. lol. I came in just a hair under 2 at 1.75” It’s my personal opinion, but I think the dryslot was enhanced by downsloping winds, at least down this way and across a part of the TRI region. We got issues, but fortunately the Eastman’s bubble isn’t one of them……... lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, tnweathernut said: You ended up doing better than me.. lol. I came in just a hair under 2 at 1.75” It’s my personal opinion, but I think the dryslot was enhanced by downsloping winds, at least down this way and across a part of the TRI region. We got issues, but fortunately the Eastman’s bubble isn’t one of them……... lol Officially I would say 2” here. 2.5 in the grass. 2 on the back table. Pretty unscientific measures for MBY - a tape measure check. We got dry slotted up here big time and from the word “go” the northern shield never developed in a robust manner. Precip also split over northern Alabama and just never recovered. I think someone noted that the precip got ahead of modeling. I think the southern end of this moved so quickly it never really allowed the northern edge to develop. It underperformed north of I-40 almost regardless of location - just looking at reports. Greeneville did better than me and that should have been a prime downslope area. Mathmet had a post about it. I just think the precip didn’t get as far north as modeled. Again, SW VA likely did better due to the orographic lift and they caught some precip which rotated west of me(moving NE). I do agree and think downslope in Washington Co could have been an issue, because the fetch just ran out of steam. When the fetch is weak, a weak fetch will be impacted by the least bit of downslope. Just watching the radar, it looked like it just ran out of steam as the Knoxville precip ran NE. Easily the toughest 2” of snow I have had in a long time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, zcarland said: Can anyone explain to me, in a dumbed down way, why these systems are prone to under perform in like the TRI area. Is it dry slotting? If so, what is that exactly? . Kingsport has been pretty fortunate. I can’t complain. Now, we can get downsloped from 3 different directions. We aren’t unlike Chattanooga in that regard. We just benefit from latitude. Yesterday, the precip just didn’t get far enough north. It happens. We also have two massive industrial plants in KPT which create a unique heat island. La Niña is the bigger culprit. We just get less precip during those years. We have had a base La Niña pattern since about 2017. That said, weak LA Ninas can work from a nickel and dime approach. I have probably had snow in the air almost all of January. Just an ebb and flow. Let’s see how the rest of winter plays out. We have about 2.5-3 weeks left of cold and March (I am surrendering February). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, zcarland said: Can anyone explain to me, in a dumbed down way, why these systems are prone to under perform in like the TRI area. Is it dry slotting? If so, what is that exactly? . I also note this often. There is a reason the first settlers settled in the valleys of the State of Franklin area of NE TN. The weather was less severe, the valleys could be farmed, and it probably looked like home to a lot of folks from Scotland/Ireland/combo of both. They were smart. They weren't looking for snow totals. Most were farmers. They wanted the longest growing season they could manage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 NW flow snow showers around this morning. Currently nickels floating around out there. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Dissapointing here in Tri but really appreciate all the disco provided. Sure seems like the RGEM is money in meso world. I don't have validation scores at hand but it really seems to nail the short horizon once it locks in on a trend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zcarland Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Kingsport has been pretty fortunate. I can’t complain. Now, we can get downsloped from 3 different directions. We aren’t unlike Chattanooga in that regard. We just benefit from latitude. Yesterday, the precip just didn’t get far enough north. It happens. We also have two massive industrial plants in KPT which create a unique heat island. La Niña is the bigger culprit. We just get less precip during those years. We have had a base La Niña pattern since about 2017. That said, weak LA Ninas can work from a nickel and dime approach. I have probably had snow in the air almost all of January. Just an ebb and flow. Let’s see how the rest of winter plays out. We have about 2.5-3 weeks left of cold and March (I am surrendering February). I’m happy with any amount of snow! I’ve been following all of you all for a few years now and just have seen how this area is notoriously hard to forecast with snow. I only understand a fraction of what you all discuss but to me, it seems like this area “fizzles out” more often than other areas. Although maybe that’s just my own bias because I only keep up with my own area. I’ve just been trying to learn some and I can’t decipher some of the lingo in here haha. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, zcarland said: I’m happy with any amount of snow! I’ve been following all of you all for a few years now and just have seen how this area is notoriously hard to forecast with snow. I only understand a fraction of what you all discuss but to me, it seems like this area “fizzles out” more often than other areas. Although maybe that’s just my own bias because I only keep up with my own area. I’ve just been trying to learn some and I can’t decipher some of the lingo in here haha. . Glad you are posting. Stay with it. It is a great(sometimes frustrating) hobby! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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