1/11/25: The little weekend thing.

[Miss Pixee]

17 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

A lot of people took the blizzard readings from a few days ago and ran with it. Anything less than a 2016 redux is disregarded in weenieland.

I just think folks like having fun with being silly. No harm in that.

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup. And it’s still probably going to cancel my son’s basketball Saturday morning…

They cancelled registration for a weekend program I oversee last Saturday because of the 30 min snowshower that hit Baltimore Friday evening....and now they will probably cancel our make up and last chance to register before the program starts because of 1" of snow.  

[Interstate]

29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup. And it’s still probably going to cancel my son’s basketball Saturday morning…

When did society become so soft?  I mean it should be up to the parents... if they feel like a dust of snow is too much, they dont bring them.  

[adelphi_sky]

4 minutes ago, Interstate said:

When did society become so soft?  I mean it should be up to the parents... if they feel like a dust of snow is too much, they dont bring them.  

Thank our country's litigious society. If parents are forced to come in to register and one family gets into a bad accident on a patch of ice, well..... Even if there is no lawsuit, that's just bad for the program. 

Also, school systems would rather err on the side of caution than to get calls about some injury from some kid slipping on ice or children stranded somewhere on that one road that hasn't been cleared 100%.

[SnowenOutThere]

18 minutes ago, Interstate said:

When did society become so soft?  I mean it should be up to the parents... if they feel like a dust of snow is too much, they dont bring them.  

You realize most kids get to school by bus right?

[Interstate]

10 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

You realize most kids get to school by bus right?

Yes... and Us as parents dictate that.  If you do not feel safe with your kids getting on a school bus then drive them.  If you do not feel safe driving them, then keep them home.  I drove my kids to school yesterday instead of them taking the bus.  We are the parents, and we control what our kids can and cannot do.  Everyone wants someone else to make the decision for them, and then blame them if something happens.  We are grown adults, and we should be making are own decisions.  This can be moved to banter if need be.

[WesternFringe]

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

Yes... and Us as parents dictate that.  If you do not feel safe with your kids getting on a school bus then drive them.  If you do not feel safe driving them, then keep them home.  I drove my kids to school yesterday instead of them taking the bus.  We are the parents, and we control what our kids can and cannot do.  Everyone wants someone else to make the decision for them, and then blame them if something happens.  We are grown adults, and we should be making are own decisions.  This can be moved to banter if need be.

I am a high school teacher.  When dealing with public education, one needs to be aware that some parents don’t own cars or have reliable transportation and/or a work schedule that allows them to drive their kids to school.  So, it isn’t always up to parents to dictate the transportation method.

Thus, the bus is the only option for many students to get to school.  I am glad the school divisions are conservative and err on the side of safety since parents would rather school be canceled than have their kids in a bus accident.

[IronTy]

I remember waiting at the bus stop in 8th grade playing football before the bus arrived - when it was -21F outside and -40F wind chills.  School wasn't cancelled for that...this was in Michigan though.  Had to drive uphill to get to and from school in the those days.  

[WesternFringe]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I remember waiting at the bus stop in 8th grade playing football before the bus arrived - when it was -21F outside and -40F wind chills.  School wasn't cancelled for that...this was in Michigan though.  Had to drive uphill to get to and from school in the those days.  

I grew up in upstate NY and it was similar.  Snow falling at the bus stop with 4” having just fallen and expecting 5” more.  Had to take my mittens off periodically to use my fingers to thaw the ice building up on my eye lashes from my breath.

Of course, we had lots of plows and busses with chains and salt and dirt.  We were used to 70” a year on average.  Not so much in Virginia.

[hstorm]

7 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

I grew up in upstate NY and it was similar.  Snow falling at the bus stop with 4” having just fallen and expecting 5” more.  Had to take my mittens off periodically to use my fingers to thaw the ice building up on my eye lashes from my breath.

Of course, we had lots of plows and busses with chains and salt and dirt.  We were used to 70” a year on average.  Not so much in Virginia.

I grew up in southeastern New England.  In grade school, we once went 7 straight years without a snow day.  It was not for lack of snow.  Unless it was a true blizzard or an ice storm, you got yourself to school.  Didn't matter if it was still snowing in the morning, or the side roads hadn't yet been plowed.  When the default decision is that school will be open, the excuses ("the roads haven't been plowed," "there is ice at the bus stop") melt away.

[Warm Nose]

I grew up this area. I can remember many times going to school during a snowstorm. If it was particularly bad, sure, school got called, but none of this 'any flakes in the air = cancellation' stuff.

Oh, and get off my lawn.

[wxdude64]

18 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

I grew up in upstate NY and it was similar.  Snow falling at the bus stop with 4” having just fallen and expecting 5” more.  Had to take my mittens off periodically to use my fingers to thaw the ice building up on my eye lashes from my breath.

Of course, we had lots of plows and busses with chains and salt and dirt.  We were used to 70” a year on average.  Not so much in Virginia.

But even in VA as a kid I remember getting on the bus as it was snowing, roads covered and heading to school. Heck, as we got older (13/14) I remember several of us once or twice helping the driver put on chains. In '78 we went to school under a blizzard watch or warning, yes, we did get out of school early, but we WENT and got 1/2 day in. 

[nj2va]

Another WWA for the mountains. What a stretch of actual winter for them. 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

But even in VA as a kid I remember getting on the bus as it was snowing, roads covered and heading to school. Heck, as we got older (13/14) I remember several of us once or twice helping the driver put on chains. In '78 we went to school under a blizzard watch or warning, yes, we did get out of school early, but we WENT and got 1/2 day in. 

I remember in 87 in NJ leaving school during one of those snowstorms when 2-3" had already fallen and it was coming down like a blizzard...took an hour to get home and I lived a mile away.  Remember another storm where I was waiting an hour for the bus in like 6" of snow and it took almost until lunch to get to school then then took 2 hours to get home that night after about 10" total fell.  We did get a 2 hour delay the next day!  

High school in northern VA I remember several times in 1994 waiting for a bus in ice, one time I waited over an hour and my father told me to just come in and forget it.  I don't think the bus ever came.  A storm in December 1996 waiting in 2" of snow.  

I have no idea which is the right way, but we definitely got softer.  When I was a kid school was cancelled for weather when it was just not possible to get there, and often they didn't cancel when I couldn't get there lol.  Probably somewhere between that and now when they cancel for some snowshowers was a happy medium.  

[yoda]

zardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
127 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-
VAZ053>057-527-101830-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-
Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-
Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
127 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Gale Warning remains in effect for all waters until 6PM this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Accumulating snow is likely Friday night. A general 1 to 2" is
expected across the area, with amounts of 3" possible in southern
Maryland.

[adelphi_sky]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I remember in 87 in NJ leaving school during one of those snowstorms when 2-3" had already fallen and it was coming down like a blizzard...took an hour to get home and I lived a mile away.  Remember another storm where I was waiting an hour for the bus in like 6" of snow and it took almost until lunch to get to school then then took 2 hours to get home that night after about 10" total fell.  We did get a 2 hour delay the next day!  

High school in northern VA I remember several times in 1994 waiting for a bus in ice, one time I waited over an hour and my father told me to just come in and forget it.  I don't think the bus ever came.  A storm in December 1996 waiting in 2" of snow.  

I have no idea which is the right way, but we definitely got softer.  When I was a kid school was cancelled for weather when it was just not possible to get there, and often they didn't cancel when I couldn't get there lol.  Probably somewhere between that and now when they cancel for some snowshowers was a happy medium.  

TBH though, we do evolve. There were a lot of things done decades ago that were acceptable that we look back on and can see why we don't do those things anymore. I'm sure there were a lot more accidents and deaths back then too which probably drives our actions today. I'm sure there is data somewhere that has suggested we change how we handle weather. I'm sure insurance companies would love to sit down and chat about risk. lol

[RevWarReenactor]

3 hours ago, soadforecasterx said:

GFS looks like to be 1-3 as well

Hilarious that it could be more than the storm on Monday for me which was only 2.5 inches.

Somehow my parents 120 miles north of me got more snow from that one. Can't figure that out. 

[yoda]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
222 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build overhead tonight into Friday. An area
of low pressure will track to our south Friday night into
Saturday bringing light snow to the area. High pressure will
build back in for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Aside from a few mountain snow showers across the Alleghenies,
dry conditions are expected with sunny skies. Well below normal
temperatures continue despite the sunshine as Arctic high
pressure builds in. Have gone well below NBM guidance tonight
across typical areas the radiate efficiently in high pressure
given the snowpack across the region. Generally along/north of
US-50/I-66 the winds area forecast to remain elevated.
Therefore, temps are going to be warmer (relatively speaking)
than those in the Shenandoah Valley and Culpeper area. Feels
like temperatures will be several degrees above the air
temperatures, but generally marginally above Cold Weather
Advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure overhead will slide east Friday while an
elongated longwave upper trough digs into the Southeast US.
Guidance has been very consistent with taking an associated
surface low south of our area and then off the coast of the
Carolinas. With this track, the bulk of precipitation associated
with this system will also fall to our south. However, there
remains uncertainty with several features of the system as
depicted by model guidance. What is certain, is advisory level
snow is likely for the Alleghenies (have a Winter Weather
Advisory from Friday evening through Saturday evening for yet
another 2-4" of snow out there with up to 6" possible on the
higher ridges). This area is in a favorable position of the
synoptic UL jet (left exit region) which should yield a period
of light to moderate snow Friday night. Behind the system,
upslope snow showers and gusty winds will continue. Considerably
blowing and drifting snow is likely. Elsewhere, confidence is
increasing for light snow accumulation (1-2 inches) for most of
the area Friday night into Saturday morning. Generally speaking,
Nelson County, VA to St Mary`s County, MD has the best
potential for 2-3" of snow (or slightly more depending on the
northern extent of heavier banding). Winter Weather Advisories
likely needed in subsequent shifts to cover this threat.

[TSSN+]

Don’t see this everyday 

[rjvanals]

38 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

But even in VA as a kid I remember getting on the bus as it was snowing, roads covered and heading to school. Heck, as we got older (13/14) I remember several of us once or twice helping the driver put on chains. In '78 we went to school under a blizzard watch or warning, yes, we did get out of school early, but we WENT and got 1/2 day in. 

It's a bit of a myth most places up north never close for snow. The reason is these areas are more rural where snow is easier to manage because there are fewer roads to clear. In urban areas like Syracuse, despite being used to receiving heavy snow, clearing roads is just harder due to higher traffic, narrower streets, and hilly terrain.  As a result, schools do close in the Syracuse metro area if it's still snowing and they've received more than ~6" while places north of there are open despite getting a heavier snowfall. 

[adelphi_sky]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Don’t see this everyday 

I have a gut feeling we'll over-perform. Sucks that we miss out on coast-to-coast winter advisories. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, adelphi_sky said:

I have a gut feeling we'll over-perform. Sucks that we miss out on coast-to-coast winter advisories. 

I kinda do too. Euro has gradually juiced up slowly. Getting closer to a widespread 1-2” type deal. 

[clskinsfan]

Its a damn shame. Texas is getting hit hard right now. And we are gonna get bupkis. 

[pazzo83]

that's odd there are freeze warning in SE GA.  Their growing season should be over by now, right?  Or maybe protocol down there is just to always issue them if <32F temps are expected.

[mitchnick]

Trend on 18z Nam continues ar 5H imho.

[TowsonTownT]

22 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

TBH though, we do evolve. There were a lot of things done decades ago that were acceptable that we look back on and can see why we don't do those things anymore. I'm sure there were a lot more accidents and deaths back then too which probably drives our actions today. I'm sure there is data somewhere that has suggested we change how we handle weather. I'm sure insurance companies would love to sit down and chat about risk. lol

And computers. No one has mentioned computers yet. 2020/2021 taught us that, while not sustainable long term for the well being of children, having them do remote learning for a few days is much more acceptable from a risk perspective than forcing them into potentially dangerous situations getting to school. That has nothing to do with the "we've grown soft as a society" narrative some like to push.

[WEATHER53]

2-4 for DC and by midnight tonight I will be keying on whats  happening around Atlanta 

31.5 for my high 

[Eskimo Joe]

5 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Let's close that little snow hole over my house, and we'll call it a deal.

Yea let's bump everyone to 2" - 4" and we're good.

[Paleocene]

Damn, every time I look at a model for this thing, I wish that NS vort got phased in and nuked us. So close

[Eskimo Joe]

12 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

that's odd there are freeze warning in SE GA.  Their growing season should be over by now, right?  Or maybe protocol down there is just to always issue them if <32F temps are expected.

Citrus, stone fruit trees, and cold weather crops (winter barley, kale, etc.). More of a heads up to the agricultural community to get the mud pots our and start ice applications.