1/11/25: The little weekend thing.

[CAPE]

[Solution Man]

15 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Ok.  That looks like snow.  Good very good

The old travelers advisory type deal…We take

[Warm Nose]

QPF maps?

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Gimme 

[Terpeast]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Gimme 

Let's close that little snow hole over my house, and we'll call it a deal.

[WxUSAF]

I like the 3k NAM bumped up precip but soundings do not support >10:1 ratios IMO.

[WhiteoutMD]

I like the 3k NAM bumped up precip but soundings do not support >10:1 ratios IMO.

You think better than tender one or worse?


.

[mitchnick]

Here's Pivotal's Kuchera 3K

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Here's Pivotal's Kuchera 3K

Getting back to something respectable hopefully. Would like to see it keep going this way. I don't expect much from the lower res globals on this leading in, Euro the only one I'd use as guidance given it's skill & res.

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I like the 3k NAM bumped up precip but soundings do not support >10:1 ratios IMO.

Yea, for my yard, more than half of the modest qpf is waa/warm front. A colder/weaker but similar setup to the last one. 10:1 with waa is top end. Lift is weak/modest in the cold side too. Snow growth will unlikely be optimal so 10:1 on the cold side is prob top end too.

 

Some of the juicier runs this AM are sweet but I'm feeling conservative here.  Topping 4" even with .4 qpf is unlikely. Not complaining. Still totally stoked to see this area with a fresh blanket of cold snow. 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Warm Nose said:

If we can get the norther vort to weaken a bit we can get a slight QPF bump ... I like the trend

I still believe this to be a 2-4” event for our area based on history and developing Synoptics 

[stormtracker]

Imma wait for backup.  We are talking the NAM beyond 48 hours.   I have no faith.   If we get an inch, we'd be lucky.

[paulythegun]

Special Weather Statement Warning for the entire region. Please move your cars until the expiration of the statement.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Imma wait for backup.  We are talking the NAM beyond 48 hours.   I have no faith.   If we get an inch, we'd be lucky.

Hey now, precip moves over DC h39 and the 3k shows similar. Not like they weren't off by a mile the other day or anything 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Imma wait for backup.  We are talking the NAM beyond 48 hours.   I have no faith.   If we get an inch, we'd be lucky.

Ya till a non American model supports meh. Let’s see if Rgem makes a move. 

[WxUSAF]

11 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

You think better than tender one or worse?


.

For metro areas probably 9-10:1

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Imma wait for backup.  We are talking the NAM beyond 48 hours.   I have no faith.   If we get an inch, we'd be lucky.

Changes on both Nams and the Hrrr ocurr during the first 24 hours and continue thereafter. I agree with being skeptical, but we're not relying on change to start 48hrs+ this time.

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, CAPE said:

SOLD 

STICK

HOLD

BUY 

PLEASE 

[TSSN+]

Rgem about the same. 1” or less 

[soadforecasterx]

Rgem is snow showers at best

[rjvanals]

1 minute ago, soadforecasterx said:

Rgem is snow showers at best

RGEM has been getting slightly wetter each run and ICON would support 1 to MAYBE 2 inches across the area 

[paulythegun]

FWIW, SREF (which was very tightly packed around 0-0.2" of QPF yesterday) now has a bunch of juicier solutions ranging .06" to 0.57" of QPF for DCA. 

WPC 95th percentile though...not seeing those higher end solutions. Big sad face for this map.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Rgem about the same. 1” or less 

Remember how dry the Rgem was for us over the weekend?  It was the driest until the end when it finally awoke.

[KAOS]

2-4" is the bar for me.

[KAOS]

31 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Here's Pivotal's Kuchera 3K

https://kaosfactory.github.io/assets/music/storm.mp3

Music for dramatic effect.

[TSSN+]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Remember how dry the Rgem was for us over the weekend?  It was the driest until the end when it finally awoke.

Had me in max 2-4” and I got 3” it did pretty good imo. 

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, KAOS said:

2-4" is the bar for me.

Don't do that to yourself man.

[wxdude64]

2 minutes ago, KAOS said:

https://kaosfactory.github.io/assets/music/storm.mp3

Music for dramatic effect.

Although IMBY is just slightly off screen in that shot, I see what looks like 6+ lollies close by. My heart says yes, my mind says to temper that lol. 

[CAPE]

Never understood the concept of having a bar for snow. So what happens if the bar isn't reached? Call a bust? Tantrum? Kick puppies? Or go to an actual bar and get hammered maybe.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Never understood the concept of having a bar for snow. So what happens if the bar isn't reached? Call a bust? Tantrum? Kick puppies? Or go to an actual bar and get hammered maybe.

Wait I need an excuse to do that?