1/11/25: The little weekend thing.

[psuhoffman]

9 hours ago, bncho said:

 

100% this. Besides, it's more than the winter of 22-23. Two years ago we'd have been dying for something like this.

I’m sorry but our bar now is “it’s better than our worst winter ever”?  We’ve really been traumatized 

[Bob Chill]

8 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

And we did say some hits of real cold but this looks longer  lasting than I thought. Great assessment from you in October. 

It's pretty interesting really. If we stay cold d10+ it will be for different reasons. So we currently have a pretty epic/classic block period that looks to relax into *potentially* a +AO and deeply negative EPO. It's like a highlight reel of the large scale longwave patterns that bring us cold temps and maybe ok snow lol. 

Historically, a progressive -EPO isn't something we want for snowfall but the 2013-15 stretch is either a clue that it's more favorable nowadays or it was lucky AF and a return to regularly scheduled programming of warm/wet -> cold/dry is more likely lol. 

[mitchnick]

Hate to mention the Hrrr, but it's weakening the northern vert over the last 3 6hr runs.

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Hate to mention the Hrrr, but it's weakening the northern vert over the last 3 6hr runs.

So, good or bad thing?

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

So, good or bad thing?

It's been messing up the southern stream, so I  would expect an improvement in precip. Look at the larger area of yellow and how it's further north on that loop.

But we all know, there could always be something else to wreck it. Lol

[soadforecasterx]

From what I under stand that north vort is what is killing off the moisture. We Keep weaking and getting that north vort out the way. The better our chances at at 1-3/2-4 event. 

[Warm Nose]

If we can get the norther vort to weaken a bit we can get a slight QPF bump ... I like the trend

[mitchnick]

That's better than most, but it's the Hrrr.

[mitchnick]

Nam doing the same thing as Hrrr thru 24hrs. Will it matter? We'll see in a few.

[Solution Man]

NAM looking better

[soadforecasterx]

Loving the trends so far day. 

[Chris78]

My bar is 1".

Most models give northern MD around  .1 qpf.

Maybe we can juice it up a little over the next 24 hours

 

[wxdude64]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's better than most, but it's the Hrrr.

Shows the Stevens City desert zone well...@EastCoast

[soadforecasterx]

Bulk of precip looks north of 6z on nam. 

[mitchnick]

12z Nam has 1006 slp in eastern TN while 0z was 1008. 06 in between.

[mitchnick]

Ok

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025010912&fh=39&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[DDweatherman]

Just now, mitchnick said:

12z Nam has 1006 slp in eastern TN while 0z was 1008. 06 in between.

northern energy just a tad held back from 6z from what I can tell. Small improvements there can get us the extra tenth of QPF I believe. And MAG up in the cpa forum said that there should be good temps in the growth zone for this. 

[Solution Man]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

northern energy just a tad held back from 6z from what I can tell. Small improvements there can get us the extra tenth of QPF I believe. And MAG up in the cpa forum said that there should be good temps in the growth zone for this. 

Improving, ok we could get sneaky

[mitchnick]

Much better relatively speaking what it was.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ok

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025010912&fh=39&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Ok.  That looks like snow.  Good very good

[mitchnick]

Killing northern stream definitely the ticket. Let's hope other modeling joins the party.

[T. August]

Waiting on maps but nam looks like a 2-4 type deal

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, T. August said:

Waiting on maps but nam looks like a 2-4 type deal

It is.

[CAPE]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

northern energy just a tad held back from 6z from what I can tell. Small improvements there can get us the extra tenth of QPF I believe. And MAG up in the cpa forum said that there should be good temps in the growth zone for this. 

NS vorticity with a more "constructive" interaction here compare to previous run. Digs some energy in instead of it all riding overtop. Better outcome.

 

[mitchnick]

[DDweatherman]

Just now, CAPE said:

NS vorticity with a more "constructive" interaction here compare to previous run. Digs some energy in instead of it all riding overtop. Better outcome.

 

I think it has a lot to do with orientation in this case doesn't it? Comes in more on the backside dig wise. 

[mitchnick]

3k looking better too but not finished.

[CAPE]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

I think it has a lot to do with orientation in this case doesn't it? Comes in more on the backside dig wise. 

Yes and earlier.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

3k looking better too but not finished.

Agreed, N/S a bit west and bringing out the SS a bit quicker. Looks similar to 12k to be honest through 33. 

[peribonca]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Looking good for the Northern Neck