Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,752
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Zero
    Newest Member
    Zero
    Joined

1/11/25: The little weekend thing.

dailylurker

By dailylurker,
in Mid Atlantic

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 264
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

18z euro is a win imo  it holds back the NS SW a little more which allows a little bit more moisture to ride the trough and it also seems to direct a bit more mid level vorticity across the

Bob Chill
Bob Chill

I disagree   

mitchnick
mitchnick

Posted Images

MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted

Pretty simple forecast here. 0.5-2" for basically everyone at this juncture. Not really much room for boom potential. Boom is probably 2-3", so there might be some WWA's that come from this one. I won't even be here for any of it, so please enjoy any flakes that fall. I will be living vicariously :)

  • Like 11
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bncho

bncho

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, HighStakes said:

Every good winter has at least couple misses. Goes with the territory. Gotta be patient. If an area wide 1-2 is one of our misses consider that a win.

 

100% this. Besides, it's more than the winter of 22-23. Two years ago we'd have been dying for something like this.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bncho

bncho

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Type of storm that seems to crawl back as we get closer. Maybe we can pull off a 1-3” event after all. 

Trended worse and then trended better within a day or two. Exactly like Jan 16, 2024.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bncho

bncho

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

If the totals for this hold DC will have more snow than last year before the anniversary of the first measurable snow for that season.

In the La Nina thread you disposed of this winter a long time ago. Thank god we're in the timeline where you're wrong.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bncho

bncho

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

In fairness the models showed crappy patterns until abruptly changing in late November. 22-23 was among the top analogs.

Yeah, I'm not trying to take a stab at you. Nobody expected this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, bncho said:

Yeah, I'm not trying to take a stab at you. Nobody expected this.

I disagree 

On 10/12/2024 at 8:10 AM, Bob Chill said:

Predicting nina climo with a warmish background is a pretty safe and easy guess this year.  My problem with that is over the last 5-10 years there has been an against the grain longwave feature more often than not and few if any point it out in advance. Mega epos, ninos strangely behaving like Nina's and vice versa producing confusing periods of met winter, pac jets on meth, and all that jazz. 

So what's it going to be this year? What's the key unusual feature(s) that will rear its head? I'm not a big fan of right for the wrong reasons with snowfall. Personally, I'd much rather see a long ranger blow the snow side of forecast but nail the red headed stepchild in the upper levels. That's a show of deeper skills and ability to think critically no matter what books and other people say (IMHO only ofc). Far easier said than done but we're in a string of winters with unexpected dominent LW features. There seems to be a propensity to buck climo. Chaos or more volatile climate? Beats me but things going as planned seems to be no longer part of the plan. Hahaha lol

I'll take a crack at it....

No deep analysis here. Just intuition and observation. In a nutshell, I think the -epo is coming back. That doesn't mean easy snow without precise alignment. If anything it favors cold enough for snow but it doesn't want to snow lol. 

Below normal temps for DJF are never coming easy again for large swaths of the NH I don't think. Oceans are fighting that. But cold outbreaks in the east are always possible. I expect some in each month of DJF. 

Storm track is always a problem so it will be again but my intuition says there will be some setups that look more like a nino than a nina. A hangover of sorts. I don't expect an active or hibernating STJ but i do believe it will be present at times and briefly remind us of a nino.

Lastly, I have a hunch we get some blocking and it will include Dec. Doesn't mean cold and snow. Just means tracking won't be boring or hopeless. 

On the balance I believe this winter will continue being weird and make people scratch heads but in the end it will be acceptable. That's all I got. 

 

  • Like 13
  • clap 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

LWX calling for 1-2 inches in their morning AFD  

FXUS61 KLWX 090826
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
326 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cyclonic flow will continue across the area through Thursday.
High pressure will build overhead on Friday. An area of low
pressure will track to our south Friday night into Saturday.
High pressure will build back in for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upslope snow showers continue this morning along the
Alleghenies, and Winter Storm Warnings/Winter Weather Advisories
remain in effect until late this morning. Strong NW winds
persist as well, and combined with temperatures in the teens and
single digits in the mountains (including the Blue Ridge), sub-
zero wind chills are expected through the day. Cold Weather
Advisories remain in effect until mid-morning for apparent
temperatures near 10-15 below zero.

To the east of the mountains, dry conditions are expected with
sunny skies. Cold temperatures continue despite the sunshine as
Arctic high pressure builds in. High temperatures struggle to
breach the freezing while wind chills sit in the teens and 20s.
Lows tonight fall into the teens with single digit wind chills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure overhead will slide east Friday while an
elongated longwave upper trough digs into the Southeast US.
Guidance has been very consistent with taking an associated
surface low south of our area and then off the coast of the
Carolinas. With this track, the bulk of precipitation associated
with this system will also fall to our south. Confidence is
increasing for light snow accumulation (1-2 inches) for most of
the area Friday night into Saturday morning. Upslope snow could
continue along the Alleghenies into Saturday afternoon/evening,
totals closer to 2-4 inches. Temperatures remain in the 20s to
low 30s across the area, so this will be in addition to any
existing snowpack.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
jayyy

jayyy

Posted
Posted
LWX calling for 1-2 inches in their morning AFD 
FXUS61 KLWX 090826AFDLWXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC326 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2025.SYNOPSIS...Cyclonic flow will continue across the area through Thursday.High pressure will build overhead on Friday. An area of lowpressure will track to our south Friday night into Saturday.High pressure will build back in for Sunday and Monday.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...Upslope snow showers continue this morning along theAlleghenies, and Winter Storm Warnings/Winter Weather Advisoriesremain in effect until late this morning. Strong NW windspersist as well, and combined with temperatures in the teens andsingle digits in the mountains (including the Blue Ridge), sub-zero wind chills are expected through the day. Cold WeatherAdvisories remain in effect until mid-morning for apparenttemperatures near 10-15 below zero.To the east of the mountains, dry conditions are expected withsunny skies. Cold temperatures continue despite the sunshine asArctic high pressure builds in. High temperatures struggle tobreach the freezing while wind chills sit in the teens and 20s.Lows tonight fall into the teens with single digit wind chills.&&.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...High pressure overhead will slide east Friday while anelongated longwave upper trough digs into the Southeast US.Guidance has been very consistent with taking an associatedsurface low south of our area and then off the coast of theCarolinas. With this track, the bulk of precipitation associatedwith this system will also fall to our south. Confidence isincreasing for light snow accumulation (1-2 inches) for most ofthe area Friday night into Saturday morning. Upslope snow couldcontinue along the Alleghenies into Saturday afternoon/evening,totals closer to 2-4 inches. Temperatures remain in the 20s tolow 30s across the area, so this will be in addition to anyexisting snowpack.


While it stings a bit seeing warnings and watches from Oklahoma to Kentucky to VA (that trajectory typically means good news for us) I’ll certainly take a nice 1-2” to refresh the snowpack a bit in what will be our third snowfall in the past week or so with cold temps to keep it around. Been a far cry from the dead ratter winter many of us were expecting early on. Brief lull in our chances coming up but about 10 days out from another window of opportunity.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

My point and click is calling for 1-3" tomorrow night. I'm pumped 

GFS/3km NAM combo is suggestive of 2"+ potential in some areas. Most other guidance a coating to an inch or so. My forecast has a max of 1.5". Probably about right.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...