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1/11/25: The little weekend thing.

dailylurker

By dailylurker,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman
psuhoffman

18z euro is a win imo  it holds back the NS SW a little more which allows a little bit more moisture to ride the trough and it also seems to direct a bit more mid level vorticity across the

Bob Chill
Bob Chill

I disagree   

mitchnick
mitchnick

Posted Images

SnowGolfBro

SnowGolfBro

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

GFS looks similar to NAM - good deal for central/southern VA. And lower eastern shore. above Fredericksburg...sorry not that much.  But i'll take my 2"

sn10_acc-imp.us_ma.png

Shows a 1-3 type deal for DC south and east. Juice it up a little as we get close to game time and it could be a respectable advisory event.

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Paleocene

Paleocene

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, adelphi_sky said:

Are these models having a bad day? What's with the weird jagged edges in Georgia and the Carolinas? 

:lol: yeah they didn't have their coffee yet. I think that is where sleet/ZR is modeled. Often ends up looking weird between precip types on the margins. If you look at the ZR map, could be a bad ice storm down in the GA--> carolina piedmont zone.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

The guidance has been incredibly good with this.  The comments about "how are they so far off" is skewed by the fact we pay attention to the outlier runs that show some crazy snowstorm more than the fact 90% of all the guidance has been indicating this was the most likely outcome since 150 hours out.  Those few runs of the worst global model (the gfs has really been a total train wreck lately, mostly because the other global systems have had major upgrades in recent years and it's fallen way behind) really skewed perception but the majority depiction across guidance all along was this outcome with a chance of a very minor event from some moisture streaming north along a positive tilted trough but the STJ wave getting sheared out south of us.  

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JenkinsJinkies

JenkinsJinkies

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The guidance has been incredibly good with this.  The comments about "how are they so far off" is skewed by the fact we pay attention to the outlier runs that show some crazy snowstorm more than the fact 90% of all the guidance has been indicating this was the most likely outcome since 150 hours out.  Those few runs of the worst global model (the gfs has really been a total train wreck lately, mostly because the other global systems have had major upgrades in recent years and it's fallen way behind) really skewed perception but the majority depiction across guidance all along was this outcome with a chance of a very minor event from some moisture streaming north along a positive tilted trough but the STJ wave getting sheared out south of us.  

This right here, the blizzard was a long shot.

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The guidance has been incredibly good with this.  The comments about "how are they so far off" is skewed by the fact we pay attention to the outlier runs that show some crazy snowstorm more than the fact 90% of all the guidance has been indicating this was the most likely outcome since 150 hours out.  Those few runs of the worst global model (the gfs has really been a total train wreck lately, mostly because the other global systems have had major upgrades in recent years and it's fallen way behind) really skewed perception but the majority depiction across guidance all along was this outcome with a chance of a very minor event from some moisture streaming north along a positive tilted trough but the STJ wave getting sheared out south of us.  

The potential hecs pattern by the following weekend looks more interesting anyway.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, 87storms said:

The potential hecs pattern by the following weekend looks more interesting anyway.

Yea the period around Jan 20 looks very promising to me.  Don't let my minor disappointment over getting fringed and now the next 10 days looking kinda boring dissuade anyone.  We had to wait a LONG time to score big a few times (and some places in this sub already scored).  1996 we waited around for weeks of a great blocking pattern before the Jan blizzard.  2011 we suffered for a whole month before that storm finally hit.  We remember the snowstorms from good patterns and tend to forget the weeks of cold dry boring that is just as common in the types of patters we need to get snow.

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snowmagnet

snowmagnet

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea the period around Jan 20 looks very promising to me.  Don't let my minor disappointment over getting fringed and now the next 10 days looking kinda boring dissuade anyone.  We had to wait a LONG time to score big a few times (and some places in this sub already scored).  1996 we waited around for weeks of a great blocking pattern before the Jan blizzard.  2011 we suffered for a whole month before that storm finally hit.  We remember the snowstorms from good patterns and tend to forget the weeks of cold dry boring that is just as common in the types of patters we need to get snow.

2010 was similar. We had the great storm in December, but then it got very cold and dry for the rest of the month. Finally got one of the best weeks in winter history around here. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
Just now, WEATHER53 said:

North south and west of us but not on us. I don’t think so 

Blame the apps.  That moisture streaming SW to NE isn't going to survive the 4500 ft mountains to our southwest without any dynamic mechanism.  The TN valley and then into WV can do fine with a simple gulf moisture stream because they don't have that issue.  We would need some mid level forcing from a NS SW or a better closer developed STJ wave to reintroduce moisture transport after the mountains shred whats coming from the southwest and in this case we have neither, unfortunately.   Our best hope to get a little surprise might be some energy from the NS activating some minor banding along the trough axis as it crosses but right now guidance takes that feature to our NW and we are left in between that and the STJ wave.  

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WEATHER53

WEATHER53

Posted
Posted
Just now, psuhoffman said:

Blame the apps.  That moisture streaming SW to NE isn't going to survive the 4500 ft mountains to our southwest without any dynamic mechanism.  The TN valley and then into WV can do fine with a simple gulf moisture stream because they don't have that issue.  We would need some mid level forcing from a NS SW or a better closer developed STJ wave to reintroduce moisture transport after the mountains shred whats coming from the southwest and in this case we have neither, unfortunately.   Our best hope to get a little surprise might be some energy from the NS activating some minor banding along the trough axis as it crosses but right now guidance takes that feature to our NW and we are left in between that and the STJ wave.  

It’s not juiced but its angle of approach historically gets it to us.  Expect 2” north beltway and north and 3-4 south of beltway 

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