1/11/25: The little weekend thing.

[high risk]

Looking at the RAP with Kuchera ratios for a snow event is like eating an entire stick of butter when you want a modest snack and then washing it down with a glass of canola oil.

[Kevin Reilly]

32 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

Temps overperforming - 35 degrees. I can hear the snow melting and dripping off the roof outside. 

No worries at least you have snow to melt meanwhile 80 miles NNE of you basically 25% snow cover.

[Kevin Reilly]

30 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

let's all have a nice chuckle that Huntsville, AL has gotten more snow this winter than NYC.

Well we only have 4.88” for winter here thus far it’s not just NYC it’s PHL northbound drought is real!

[clskinsfan]

11 minutes ago, high risk said:

Looking at the RAP with Kuchera ratios for a snow event is like eating an entire stick of butter when you want a modest snack and then washing it down with a glass of canola oil.

I gotta hug the model with most snow. It is the only way to ensure my disappointment is legendary. 

[Wetbulbs88]

Hugging the RAP until I see the light and life flash before my eyes. 

[Warm Nose]

17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

17Z RAP juiced up quite a bit for DC area. 2-5 Area wide.

 

You're hugging the RAP ... 

[clskinsfan]

11 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

You're hugging the RAP ... 

What are you hugging?

[wawarriors4]

LWX expanded the Winter Weather Advisory up to the District and Beltway areas.....

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

What are you hugging?

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Advisories for DC metro and points south.

[KAOS]

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 10 at 1:37PM EST until January 11 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches.

* WHERE...District of Columbia, central Maryland, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light to moderate snow will overspread the area late this evening, then quickly come to an end Saturday morning.

[Wxtrix]

it looks like snow outside.

[WEATHER53]

So far as precip moves northeast the radar is not showing decrease but rather increase in the stronger  returns 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, WEATHER53 said:

So far as precip moves northeast the radar is not showing decrease but rather increase in the stronger  returns 

[silently prepares for 1/25/2000 jr redux] 

[The Ole Bucket]

[mattie g]

44 minutes ago, high risk said:

Looking at the RAP with Kuchera ratios for a snow event is like eating an entire stick of butter when you want a modest snack and then washing it down with a glass of canola oil.

[WEATHER53]

27 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Hugging the RAP until I see the light and life flash before my eyes. 

All will start to pick up on what is currently happening and looks to continue 

[Warm Nose]

Current thread:

[Terpeast]

SPS for Loudoun County (and any county not in the WWA), specifically mentions higher amounts east of rt 15:

...LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AM...

Light to locally moderate snow will move across eastern West
Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and western and central
Maryland, late tonight into early Saturday morning. Snow will move
into the southern Shenandoah Valley and central Virginia between 7
to 9pm before advancing north and east toward northern Virginia
and central Maryland between 9 to 11pm. Hazardous travel
conditions are expected with air temperatures in the low to mid
20s and snowfall rates of 0.25 to 0.50 inches per hour.
Visibility may drop to one mile at times with light winds
expected. It is recommended to delay any travel that is not
necessary between midnight and 6am Saturday. Snowfall moves out of
the area between 5 to 8am Saturday with improving conditions
Saturday afternoon as high temperatures climb back above freezing.
Storm total snow accumulations of a coating to 1 inch are
possible with locally heavier amounts up to 2 inches along and
east of US-15.

[Terpeast]

Let's see if the afternoon's LWX AFD mentions the possibility of expanding advisories west.

[Benjamn3]

It will over perform. 
 

I’m doing what Oprah said and speaking it into existence. 

[Paleocene]

I am skeptical that we will overperform but man, looking at my radar app and thinking I'll wake up with a fresh inch tomorrow is hard to reconcile. #radarweenie

[Eskimo Joe]

Some decent returns all the way back to Cincinnati. Wonder if this thing has nudged further NW than thought? 

[Imgoinhungry]

Some decent returns all the way back to Cincinnati. Wonder if this thing has nudged further NW than thought? 

I just compared simulated radar from hrrr to what is actually showing up on radar. Looked pretty similar. We are probably about to be bombarded with virga.


.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Imgoinhungry said:

I just compared simulated radar from hrrr to what is actually showing up on radar. Looked pretty similar. We are probably about to be bombarded with virga.


.

Yeah, I don't really think radar looks that impressive IMHO. You'd think we'd get something, but the system is obviously de-amping and is starting to dry up as precip gets north from the current low pressing against the ole thief to the north. 

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

What are you hugging?

[yoda]

FXUS61 KLWX 101923
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
223 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light to moderate snow will overspread the area as an area of
low pressure tracks to the south tonight. High pressure builds
back in for Sunday and Monday. A clipper type system may impact
the Alleghenies Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A quick hitting light to moderate snow event is expected across
the area with most coming to an end by sunrise Saturday, aside
for the Alleghenies...

Synoptically, an elongated longwave upper trough digs into the
Southeast US today. Guidance has been very consistent with
taking an associated surface low south of our area and then off
the coast of the Carolinas. With this track, the heaviest
precipitation associated with this system will also fall to our
south.

A general inch or so of snow is expected for most of the area.
However, there appears to be several areas of locally higher
snowfall

1) The greater DC metro appears to be near the intersection of
the nose of the low-level jet and edge of the moisture surge.
Have issued a Winter Wx Advisory for this area given overall
agreement on at least 0.1" QPF in this area. Given SLRs of 14 or
15:1 or so, this will result in a broad 1.5 inches. Advisory
criteria is 2", which we feel is attainable in areas that are
under the relatively speaking more robust bursts of snow.
Regardless exact snowfall amounts (1, 1.5, or 2"), it will still
be impactful given the cold ground surfaces.

2) Central VA into Southern MD. This area is moreso associated
with the forcing of the low-level FGEN of the low pressure
system. The area is on the northern edge of it, but a subtle
enhancement appears likely. Have maintained a Winter Wx Advisory
for this area.

3) The Alleghenies... have maintained a Winter Weather Advisory
from through evening for yet another 2-4" of snow out there
with up to 6" possible on the higher ridges. This area is in a
favorable position of the synoptic UL jet (left exit region)
which should yield a period of light to moderate snow tonight.
Behind the system, upslope snow showers and gusty winds will
continue. Considerably blowing and drifting snow is likely.

 

[Dendrimer77]

15 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

I just compared simulated radar from hrrr to what is actually showing up on radar. Looked pretty similar. We are probably about to be bombarded with virga.


.

It will be virga for two hours or more until the DPs come up...book it. Happened last storm as well and drove me nuts!

[yoda]

@high risk looks like LWX going 15:1 SLRs for tonight for DC metro 

[Thewiledcard]

2 minutes ago, Dendrimer77 said:

It will be virga for two hours or more until the DPs come up...book it. Happened last storm as well and drove me nuts!

At least it will "feel" like snow... 

 

Nothing worse than that.