SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Friday at 02:29 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:29 PM 5 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said: Looking over models at 500 and at surface. I don't think many realize how close we were to a mecs. Look at nam 12k for example. That north vort now phases in late and you have a bombing low the second it gets off shore. Yeah it was definitely a missed connection by not that much. Oh well, this would hurt a lot more if we didn't just get dumped on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Friday at 02:31 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:31 PM 26 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z 3km NAM juiced up a bit Soundings on the 12z run look MUCH better than any I’d seen to this point. Deeper saturated layer, colder aloft, and strong lift in a deeper DGZ. Only fly in the ointment is the strong winds at that level. But overall more supportive of something a bit better than 10:1 perhaps. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Friday at 02:46 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:46 PM 16 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Believe that this thing has juice for those in the strike zone. Fairly well ripping here in southeast MO. Likely to live up to the late warning NWS posted yesterday. Tulsa folks said they are on track to get 7" or so. Crushing through AR and TN. HRRR seems to be verifying. What qpf range did the mesos show leading in and does reality coincide or is it juicier? Was the northern extent well modeled or is reality further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted Friday at 02:51 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:51 PM 56 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Hot springs is about 100 miles to my NW. Different world out there though. Appalachian counties have their own climate. Closer to WV than blue ridge areas. Hi Bob! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 02:51 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:51 PM 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: What qpf range did the mesos show leading in and does reality coincide or is it juicier? Was the northern extent well modeled or is reality further north? Remember Bob, this is a weather board. Reality has no place here. 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted Friday at 02:54 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:54 PM 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: What qpf range did the mesos show leading in and does reality coincide or is it juicier? Was the northern extent well modeled or is reality further north? I'm saying that the models picked up on it pretty darn well in my area anyway. Here the QPF I think was like 0.5?! And we're on course for 5". Nice to have temps in the upper 20s to stay on course with the 10:1 ratio. Kuchera and the 10:1 were almost identical for the last 24 hours. And they're seeming to be fairly on the money. In Missouri I'd say that the northern extent was very well modeled. I was extremely skeptical, as were a lot of people in the Western states forum that it would hold that way. Surely the cutoff had to be much sharper than what the models were saying. That always freaking happens. Not this time. Of course, the Appalachians could throw a big wrench into it for you all when it heads East. But so far, the sharp cutoffs we assumed were not being modeled correctly have not materialized. We're headed to a nice 4-5" here. And STL, about 65 miles north of me, is on track for about 2-2.5." Exactly what last nights NAM and HRRR were saying. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted Friday at 02:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:57 PM 27 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Yeah it was definitely a missed connection by not that much. Oh well, this would hurt a lot more if we didn't just get dumped on Monday. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted Friday at 02:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:59 PM You all probably have seen also though what has happened further south. DFW and ATL were a lot wetter than originally anticipated. And slightly colder. Radar is apparently showing sleet in the metro but it's actually falling as very heavy, wet snow. With a layer of sleet underneath it. Just an absolute mess. Reminds me of what we got with last weekend's storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 03:04 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:04 PM 4 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: You all probably have seen also though what has happened further south. DFW and ATL were a lot wetter than originally anticipated. And slightly colder. Radar is apparently showing sleet in the metro but it's actually falling as very heavy, wet snow. Just an absolute mess. Atl had 2hrs of snow and then went to zr/ip at 10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted Friday at 03:06 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:06 PM That Lambo in ATL lol 7 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Friday at 03:13 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:13 PM 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Atl had 2hrs of snow and then went to zr/ip at 10am. why is Ryan Mahue saying he got 5 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted Friday at 03:16 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:16 PM 1 minute ago, Ji said: why is Ryan Mahue saying he got 5 inches of snow Slant sticking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted Friday at 03:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:18 PM 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: Slant sticking? It'd have to be doubled over lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 03:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:18 PM My son says its snowing in Charleston, SC right now. He moved there to get away from cold and snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted Friday at 03:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:18 PM 12 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: That Lambo in ATL lol Someone is an I D I O T 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted Friday at 03:20 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:20 PM 6 minutes ago, Ji said: why is Ryan Mahue saying he got 5 inches of snow Atlanta proper made it into a heavy fronto band that came through for those 2-3 hours dropping 1-2" rates of heavy wet flakes. Reports around the city of 2-4 inches which is genuinely impressive for that short window. They're back to ZR/IP now though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 03:22 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:22 PM 6 minutes ago, Ji said: why is Ryan Mahue saying he got 5 inches of snow Must be N of the airport. https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KFTY.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Friday at 03:25 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:25 PM 11 minutes ago, Ji said: why is Ryan Mahue saying he got 5 inches of snow 5 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted Friday at 03:45 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:45 PM GOOFUS. Broadly consistent with the morning regional models. RGEM was less kind but that's because Canada doesn't understand the south anyone in this forum from norfolk/hampton roads? They'll get a decent storm out of this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Friday at 03:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:48 PM 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Soundings on the 12z run look MUCH better than any I’d seen to this point. Deeper saturated layer, colder aloft, and strong lift in a deeper DGZ. Only fly in the ointment is the strong winds at that level. But overall more supportive of something a bit better than 10:1 perhaps. Everyone is crapping on the Kuchy maps because their ratios busted bad last time, but predicting ratios is part of the process of predicting snowfall...and sometimes you just get it wrong. In this case the Kuchera maps for the most part are not predicting crazy high snowfall ratios and seem about what I would expect. All the snowfall maps have flaws, the main one being they are only as good as the predictions they are based on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Friday at 03:50 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:50 PM 36 minutes ago, Ji said: why is Ryan Mahue saying he got 5 inches of snow Cuz he’s a giant troll? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Friday at 03:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:58 PM 39 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: My son says its snowing in Charleston, SC right now. He moved there to get away from cold and snow. Funny, my nephew lives in Charleston and said nothing yet and that it might be too warm lol. He's on the outskirts, so not sure if that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted Friday at 04:14 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:14 PM 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Everyone is crapping on the Kuchy maps because their ratios busted bad last time, but predicting ratios is part of the process of predicting snowfall...and sometimes you just get it wrong. In this case the Kuchera maps for the most part are not predicting crazy high snowfall ratios and seem about what I would expect. All the snowfall maps have flaws, the main one being they are only as good as the predictions they are based on. My issue isn't with Kuchera itself - it's a tool that attempts to boil down the prediction of ratios into an algorithm even though there are an exponential number variables that feed into that equation. It's simplistic and flawed (as is every other model) and should be taken with a grain of salt but I understand the intention and it at least makes an attempt at prediction. Therein lies the skill of the forecaster. We do see 'lazy' forecasters (present company excluded lol) giving it a bit too much weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Friday at 04:16 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:16 PM Well at least it will be hard to miss this storm to the north or south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 04:29 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:29 PM 30 minutes ago, 87storms said: Funny, my nephew lives in Charleston and said nothing yet and that it might be too warm lol. He's on the outskirts, so not sure if that matters. My son is a little NW of town. I think they have gone over to rain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 04:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:30 PM 15z RAP shows 0.2+ qpf for both IAD and DCA by tomorrow. That's double from 03z. HRRR smaller uptick but noise-ish 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 04:45 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:45 PM 14 minutes ago, Terpeast said: 15z RAP shows 0.2+ qpf for both IAD and DCA by tomorrow. That's double from 03z. HRRR smaller uptick but noise-ish Wish it was right, has a nice 3" zone over the MD/DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted Friday at 04:53 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:53 PM Will school systems in dc suburbs close tomorrow? Lots of bball games that got postponed from earlier in the week. They may have to postpone the postponed games!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Friday at 04:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:58 PM Snow on kinda sorta snow for our land in Sandy Level. Hard pack frozen snow/sleet/zr lol on our driveway. No give underfoot. My tractor has awesome traction but if the treads can't break that crust I may end up involuntarily downhill. Lol. Maybe way down hill hahaha. No seat belts or airbags on 1967 tractors Eta: it's 26 degrees right now. No way we hit 33 forecast. No wasted flakes 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 05:06 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:06 PM 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Snow on kinda sorta snow for our land in Sandy Level. Hard pack frozen snow/sleet/zr lol on our driveway. No give underfoot. My tractor has awesome traction but if the treads can't break that crust I may end up involuntarily downhill. Lol. Maybe way down hill hahaha. No seat belts or airbags on 1967 tractors Eta: it's 26 degrees right now. No way we hit 33 forecast. No wasted flakes Nice tractor. Its snowing in Stony Gap right now. So its on its way to you soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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