1/11/25: The little weekend thing.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

I don't konw what that is. Could you enlighten me, please?

This was an event that was "well forecast" to slide south of DC proper. However, it became obvious the night before that something was seriously off with the forecast. The radar did not match the model guidance at all the night before,. The upper air presentation was also far more robust than what guidance was predicting. Ultimately, locations east of US 15 wound up with over 6" of snow, and several spots east of I-95 topped a foot.

Link for more details: https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2000/25-Jan-00.html

This event does not look like that event all all. I would say that Jan 25, 2000 and Jan 27, 2011 events were the two biggest "boom" scenarios for snow in these parts.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This was an event that was "well forecast" to slide south of DC proper. However, it became obvious the night before that something was seriously off with the forecast. The radar did not match the model guidance at all the night before,. The upper air presentation was also far more robust than what guidance was predicting. Ultimately, locations east of US 15 wound up with over 6" of snow, and several spots east of I-95 topped a foot.

Link for more details: https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2000/25-Jan-00.html

This event does not look like that event all all. I would say that Jan 25, 2000 and Jan 27, 2011 events were the two biggest "boom" scenarios for snow in these parts.

Thanks!

[Stradivarious]

I got into my car after work, flurries had been forecast all day for that nite in Annapolis. Turned on the radio , and heard paper ripping. DJ says, hear that paper ripping? That’s the forecast we have been giving all day for flurries. We are going to get over a foot of snow, and it’s going to start in about… 1 hour.

[dailylurker]

14 minutes ago, bncho said:

I don't konw what that is. Could you enlighten me, please?

A legendary positive bust. I could go on forever about this storm. It was an amazing event. I remember the forecast for it to go south of us. No storm or hype about a storm. I remember going to a friend's house that evening to hang out. I remember thinking it was odd how the full moon disappeared behind thick clouds and the wind was picking up. I didn't think much about it again. When I got home that evening I stood there looking at the dark night sky and remember the wind. I went inside and turned on twc to catch the radar on the 8's. That radar image is something I'll never forget. It was a wall of dark blue racing our direction from the SE. It went from a few flakes to ripping snow fog in 5 minutes. The storm was wild. I remember measuring 20"

[bncho]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

A legendary positive bust. I could go on forever about this storm. It was an amazing event. I remember the forecast for it to go south of us. No storm or hype about a storm. I remember going to a friend's house that evening to hang out. I remember thinking it was odd how the full moon disappeared behind thick clouds and the wind was picking up. I didn't think much about it again. When I got home that evening I stood there looking at the dark night sky and remember the wind. I went inside and turned on twc to catch the radar on the 8's. That radar image is something I'll never forget. It was a wall of dark blue racing our direction from the SE. It went from a few flakes to ripping snow fog in 5 minutes. The storm was wild.

 

4 minutes ago, Stradivarious said:

I got into my car after work, flurries had been forecast all day for that nite in Annapolis. Turned on the radio , and heard paper ripping. DJ says, hear that paper ripping? That’s the forecast we have been giving all day for flurries. We are going to get over a foot of snow, and it’s going to start in about… 1 hour.

 

11 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I’ll never forget waking up that next morning to a foot of snow. With drifts of 3 feet plus. No plows came through until the afternoon because they didn’t know. What a scene.

 

16 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Jan 25 2000.  A day that will live in infamy.  Not sure that can happen again

I guess I missed out.

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

A legendary positive bust. I could go on forever about this storm. It was an amazing event. I remember the forecast for it to go south of us. No storm or hype about a storm. I remember going to a friend's house that evening to hang out. I remember thinking it was odd how the full moon disappeared behind thick clouds and the wind was picking up. I didn't think much about it again. When I got home that evening I stood there looking at the dark night sky and remember the wind. I went inside and turned on twc to catch the radar on the 8's. That radar image is something I'll never forget. It was a wall of dark blue racing our direction from the SE. It went from a few flakes to ripping snow fog in 5 minutes. The storm was wild. I remember measuring 16-17"

 

9 minutes ago, bncho said:

Thanks!

One more clip with Paul Kocin

 

[notvirga!]

I was in college living in Lynchburg for the Jan 2000 event. It was a surprise there too. One of my friends left his dorm window open that night and woke up with a good bit of snow in his bed. Danville and South Boston had 12-16 inches. In Lynchburg we had 9-10 inches. 

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

You made my day! That brings back a lot of good memories from my teenage years. That was a few years after the blizzard of 96 and the follow up 6" from a clipper. 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

You made my day! That brings back a lot of good memories from my teenage years. That was a few years after the blizzard of 96 and the follow up 6" from a clipper. 

That’s good shit there

[Eskimo Joe]

It may not translate to much success up in these parts, but it's encouraging to see the storm overperform in Arkansas this evening. A couple of mesoscale discussions out and the surface obs are showing decent snowfall rates. If I were south of DC I would be optimistic.

[mitchnick]

18z Euro says everyone enjoy your coating-1/2".

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It may not translate to much success up in these parts, but it's encouraging to see the storm overperform in Arkansas this evening. A couple of mesoscale discussions out and the surface obs are showing decent snowfall rates. If I were south of DC I would be optimistic.

Areas like Richmond are going to have 100% of climo in three days.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, mitchnick said:

18z Euro says everyone enjoy your coating-1/2".

Each model has taken a turn giving crap while another gives 1-2

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, bncho said:

Areas like Richmond are going to have 100% of climo in three days.

Yea that much is becoming certain. That's a good thing even up here. With expansive snow cover it reinforces our CAD potential and can mitigate a torch day. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

18z Euro says everyone enjoy your coating-1/2".

jv model.  Wait for the big dog varsity later.  NAM, NOGAPS, MRF, AVN, WRF.

[Kevin Reilly]

Just now, BristowWx said:

jv model.  Wait for the big dog varsity later.  NAM, NOGAPS, MRF, AVN, WRF.

You mean "Big Daddy" feel like im back in 2009-2010 where we have the cold, and I kept hearing we have these storms running around and now we wait for the "Big Daddy" just all about timing so be patient. 

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

jv model.  Wait for the big dog varsity later.  NAM, NOGAPS, MRF, AVN, WRF.

January 22-23, 2016 redux?
P.S. Go ahead and weenie me for this. I don't care.

[Solution Man]

Remember this guy

 

[psuhoffman]

57 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This was an event that was "well forecast" to slide south of DC proper. However, it became obvious the night before that something was seriously off with the forecast. The radar did not match the model guidance at all the night before,. The upper air presentation was also far more robust than what guidance was predicting. Ultimately, locations east of US 15 wound up with over 6" of snow, and several spots east of I-95 topped a foot.

Link for more details: https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2000/25-Jan-00.html

This event does not look like that event all all. I would say that Jan 25, 2000 and Jan 27, 2011 events were the two biggest "boom" scenarios for snow in these parts.

I remember being in the weather station at PSU the day before the 2000 storm arguing with the meteorology professor they had on duty after the 12z guidance came in that something was way off. All the models totally missed the amplified of the upper level feature coming across the MS valley. It was super easy to spot on the WV loop that there was a completely closed SW where guidance had a much weaker feature and as a result the gulf moisture was already affecting north and the trough was taking on a negative tilt way ahead of schedule. 
 

He saw it but said there was no way models would be 200 miles off in 12 hours and maybe it might clip the outer banks or Boston as worst lol. I’m sure I was driving him nuts.  The next day he didn’t want to talk to me lol. 
 

I remember me and my friend (he’s the one with the place in Vermont now) driving Jon Neese crazy the year before because he didn’t trust the ETA (too new) and relied on the NGM and AVN and twice in a row the ETA nailed a snow event for up there.  I had no skill at all back then it was pure luck. Actually the fact I had no idea what I was doing is probably why I caught both, I was naive enough to question everything and not just trust the most reliable data. 

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Each model has taken a turn giving crap while another gives 1-2

Wait a coating is less than 1/2”?

[RVAman]

We’re excited for this one down in Richmond. We know it won’t be major (at least not as models are showing) but we can sigh a relief of fresh air knowing it’ll be likely all snow and none of the mixed crap we’ve been getting lately. 

[CAPE]

1-2 in the forecast here.

My bar is a...

 

[Eskimo Joe]

27 minutes ago, RVAman said:

We’re excited for this one down in Richmond. We know it won’t be major (at least not as models are showing) but we can sigh a relief of fresh air knowing it’ll be likely all snow and none of the mixed crap we’ve been getting lately. 

Hope you jackpot!

[RVAman]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Hope you jackpot!

Only if they fix our damn water first……

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, RVAman said:

Only if they fix our damn water first……

Sounds like you'll get it fixed soon. I was almost deployed down to help.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Sounds like you'll get it fixed soon. I was almost deployed down to help.

Richmond water is in deep shit after this one, I wouldn’t be surprised if this gave them a much cheaper tag for someone like AW to buy after all these NOV’s with the EPA. 

[87storms]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Watch this thing become a 3" - 5" event last minute.

It's gonna snow again and I don't think there's a whole lot we can do about it.

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Been surprisingly cold since the snow/ice. Trees are still holding ice in shaded areas

Its a frikin glacier here. Which is amazing. Logged on and saw 81 new replies in the past 2 hours. We are Snow weenies of the highest order man....

[Solution Man]

6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Its a frikin glacier here. Which is amazing. Logged on and saw 81 new replies in the past 2 hours. We are Snow weenies of the highest order man....

Snow towns 

[87storms]

41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I remember being in the weather station at PSU the day before the 2000 storm arguing with the meteorology professor they had on duty after the 12z guidance came in that something was way off. All the models totally missed the amplified of the upper level feature coming across the MS valley. It was super easy to spot on the WV loop that there was a completely closed SW where guidance had a much weaker feature and as a result the gulf moisture was already affecting north and the trough was taking on a negative tilt way ahead of schedule. 
 

He saw it but said there was no way models would be 200 miles off in 12 hours and maybe it might clip the outer banks or Boston as worst lol. I’m sure I was driving him nuts.  The next day he didn’t want to talk to me lol. 
 

I remember me and my friend (he’s the one with the place in Vermont now) driving Jon Neese crazy the year before because he didn’t trust the ETA (too new) and relied on the NGM and AVN and twice in a row the ETA nailed a snow event for up there.  I had no skill at all back then it was pure luck. Actually the fact I had no idea what I was doing is probably why I caught both, I was naive enough to question everything and not just trust the most reliable data. 

The snow came in like a wall off the Atlantic.  May not see another fluke snow like that again.