1/11/25: The little weekend thing.

[Bob Chill]

Been surprisingly cold since the snow/ice. Trees are still holding ice in shaded areas today. Smith mtn is frosty up top. This is the east side around noon. Most of my pics lately have been west side. There's a nice sized hawk sitting on a branch enjoying the view looking for lunch.

WSW for 3-5" down here. Seems top end even with being closer to the juice but a 5" storm would be pretty damm awesome.

 

 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Been surprisingly cold since the snow/ice. Trees are still holding ice in shaded areas today. Smith mtn is frosty up top. This is the east side around noon. Most of my pics lately have been west side. There's a nice sized hawk sitting on a branch enjoying the view looking for lunch.

WSW for 3-5" down here. Seems top end even with being closer to the juice but a 5" storm would be pretty damm awesome.

 

 

This one's yours, Bob. Enjoy!

[mitchnick]

It's only fair to consider the high end hot off the presses from the impeccable 21Z RAP.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025010921&fh=45&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=snku_acc-imp&m=rap

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Been surprisingly cold since the snow/ice. Trees are still holding ice in shaded areas today. Smith mtn is frosty up top. This is the east side around noon. Most of my pics lately have been west side. There's a nice sized hawk sitting on a branch enjoying the view looking for lunch.

WSW for 3-5" down here. Seems top end even with being closer to the juice but a 5" storm would be pretty damm awesome.

 

 

Wow...that's a beautiful scene and shot, Bob!!  Love the transition from the blue sky, to the whiteish-gray snow/ice, to the green more in the foreground!  And yeah, I see that hawk!  Hope you score some good snow from this event.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

This one's yours, Bob. Enjoy!

Appreciate it. Been a long wait to see this area with a cold blanket of snow. I'll take 100s of pics heh. I'm not seeing a high chance at 3-5" widespread. That's 10:1 and higher end of qpf forecasts. Airmass is super dry too so virga and stuff. Our penhook place is at 930' so less virga but still..... virga... lol

[osfan24]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's only fair to consider the high end hot off the presses from the impeccable 21Z RAP.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025010921&fh=45&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=snku_acc-imp&m=rap

LOL. That model just seems to take reasonable snowfall amounts and multiply it by 1.5 or more.

[Solution Man]

Storm is over performing south of us, Dallas into Little Rock. Maybe we squeeze out a 2-4 type event. Definitely a WWA

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

LOL. That model just seems to take reasonable snowfall amounts and multiply it by 1.5 or more.

Isn't great! 

[mitchnick]

Hrr not far from Rap. Lol

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025010918&fh=48&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[WVclimo]

Most of the recent model runs have a bit more QPF through the Eastern Panhandle than further south in the Valley.  Not sure what they are picking up on, but hope it’s right.  It means the difference between a dusting and an inch+ here.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Storm is over, performing south of us, Dallas into Little Rock. Maybe we squeeze out a 2-4 type event. Definitely a WWA

2-4 type.  Pretty routine around here.  Everyone other day…

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Storm is over, performing south of us, Dallas into Little Rock. Maybe we squeeze out a 2-4 type event. Definitely a WWA

Ya Little Rock isn’t even supposed to really snow till 9pm according to NWS hourlies and they are getting smoked right now 

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya Little Rock isn’t even supposed to really snow till 9pm according to NWS hourlies and they are getting smoked right now 

Gotta love it

[Solution Man]

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

2-4 type.  Pretty routine around here.  Everyone other day…

Snow town, when was the last time we’ve seen snow just sit

[weatherbook]

For those of us who enjoy radar hallucinations, it's looking good so far: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-southcentral-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 

[87storms]

Storm is over performing south of us, Dallas into Little Rock. Maybe we squeeze out a 2-4 type event. Definitely a WWA

I’ve seen worse vort passes here. This always felt like the type of system that could spruce up towards gametime.

[yoda]

Just now, Another Field said:

Where did you find this?  Never seen it before 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I’ve seen worse vort passes here. This always felt like the type of system that could spruce up towards gametime.

Watch this thing become a 3" - 5" event last minute.

[Another Field]

[Another Field]

Just now, yoda said:

Where did you find this?  Never seen it before 

This is the Iowa State meteogram generator. Part of the bufkit warehouse. 

https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kbwi&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on

[yoda]

Just now, Another Field said:

This is the Iowa State meteogram generator. Part of the bufkit warehouse. 

https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kbwi&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on

Thanks!  Bookmark added

[BristowWx]

21 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Snow town, when was the last time we’ve seen snow just sit

Where is that old lady meme from Titanic…been that long. 

[SnowenOutThere]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Watch this thing become a 3" - 5" event last minute.

The vibe with this storm has felt sorta similar to last years storms which trended worse in the medium range then got brought back short range

[bncho]

I am really thinking this event turns into a Jan 16, 2024 type of thing where it gets much better last minute.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

I am really thinking this event turns into a Jan 16, 2024 type of thing where it gets much better last minute.

Jan 25 2000.  A day that will live in infamy.  Not sure that can happen again

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Jan 25 2000.  A day that will live in infamy.  Not sure that can happen again

I don’t think it can ever happen to that magnitude again given our advances 

[SnowGolfBro]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

I don’t think it can ever happen to that magnitude again given our advances 

I’ll never forget waking up that next morning to a foot of snow. With drifts of 3 feet plus. No plows came through until the afternoon because they didn’t know. What a scene.

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Jan 25 2000.  A day that will live in infamy.  Not sure that can happen again

I don't konw what that is. Could you enlighten me, please?
EDIT: I now know that it was a surprise blizzard.

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

I don't konw what that is. Could you enlighten me, please?

You probably were -10 then. 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

You probably were -10 then. 

That is 100% correct.