psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 If it busts slightly high on qpf it will be too high but not necessarily because of ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 31/14 here in admo What do you think about first flakes? 10 pm? Yep, was thinking 930-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The map is a mess to say the least. Wth is going on in Centreville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Can someone post a map showing the soil moisture superimposed with a cross section showing DGZ, CAPE and VVs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The map is a mess to say the least. I live in Reston and if this happens I’m gonna scream, thank goodness it’s the hrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 8 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 31/14 here in admo What do you think about first flakes? 10 pm? seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: I live in Reston and if this happens I’m gonna scream, thank goodness it’s the hrrr Not sure what's going on there. Here is TTB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The first radar return to come over is producing flakes in Round Hill. No virga. 26/14 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Not sure what's going on there. Here is TTB. Come on man. It’s a C-2” event. Just look at the raw qpf and piece it together. Do we really need to analyze every type of snowfall clown map for this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 First flakes here. You can count them. 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Flakes started down here in Stafford. Flurries, 30/16 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Come on man. It’s a C-2” event. Just look at the raw qpf and piece it together. Do we really need to analyze every type of snowfall clown map for this? The ones that count at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 First flakes or something…kinda graupel like 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The ones that count at least. TT is awesome and it’s free, but it’s got about the lowest resolution and least sophisticated snowfall algorithms of every outlet, except maybe those 1986 Donkey Kong level maps ncep still puts out on their defunct page they still update for some reason. And even if the TT maps were the most accurate using one that round to the nearest whole number in a C-2” event seems like an interesting choice. Again, just look at the raw QPF, apply what you think the ratio should be, and be done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Still not seeing anything falling. Ashburn, 28/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Last few runs of the HRRR had snow reaching here after 11:00. Radar looks like it may be quite a bit sooner than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Last few runs of the HRRR had snow reaching here after 11:00. Radar looks like it may be quite a bit sooner than that.Always is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Terpeast said: Still not seeing anything falling. Ashburn, 28/13 Something’s falling alright. My patience. 26/12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: Flakes started down here in Stafford. Flurries, 30/16 Philly sports still suck 30/17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Radar looks like its backfilling to the SW. maybe that’ll bring the flakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Still not seeing anything falling. Ashburn, 28/13 Northern system is drying as it moves SE and southern system is moving ENE. Great view on what happens with no phase. You can also see what could have been. Weather is fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Philly sports still suck 30/17 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Northern system is drying as it moves SE and southern system is moving ENE. Great view on what happens with no phase. You can also see what could have been. Weather is fun. Yeah we know. I’m just hoping for an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The farthest north snowflakes on traffic cams right now is Dumfries. https://511.vdot.virginia.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Anyone under the radar returns just east of 81? Snowing or virga? Just virga out here. But I am encouraged by the look of radar at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caw Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Light snow in Bethesda . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 12 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: The first radar return to come over is producing flakes in Round Hill. No virga. 26/14 I saw maybe 3 mangled flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 There’s actually kind of a band in Spotsy, looks like it might head my way, who knows, #SnowTown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Tougher to track the snow progress via webcams since we actually have snowcover going into a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 My final call 2-5 cm’s 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now