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1/11/25: The little weekend thing.


dailylurker
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43 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Are we getting 2”?.

Somewhere in the area might get about 2”  The average will probably be 1”. Some places will get a coating. But we’re obsessing over changes in .06 qpf here and 10 mile shifts in weak bands. 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

this could of been the Jan 1996 storm if things had come together a bit more

This was the wave that had the hecs potential but we needed the NS to buckle a little further west and the 50/50 to be slightly further northeast.  A couple of minor flaws in the pattern on a global level blew it. Oh well. 

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
342 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

VAZ036-037-508-101800-
/O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.250111T0000Z-250111T0900Z/
Nelson-Albemarle-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
342 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to 2 inches, and
  isolated amounts up to 3 inches possible in southern Nelson county.

* WHERE...Albemarle and Nelson Counties, and Central Virginia Blue
  Ridge.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
  conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light to moderate snow will overspread the
  area this evening, then quickly come to an end early Saturday
  morning.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
342 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

MDZ016>018-VAZ055>057-101800-
/O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.250111T0300Z-250111T1200Z/
Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-
342 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to 2 inches, and
  isolated amounts up to 3 inches possible in far southern Maryland.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Maryland and central and northern
  Virginia.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
  conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light to moderate snow will overspread the
  area late this evening, then quickly come to an end Saturday
  morning.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
353 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build overhead today before sliding east. An area
of low pressure will track to our south Friday night into Saturday
bringing light snow to the area. High pressure will build back in
for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure slides east today while an elongated upper trough digs
into the Southeast US. A surface low pressure system will pull away
from the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning and make its way into
the Carolinas by this evening.

The bulk of the snowfall associated with this system will stay to
the south of our area and then off the coast of the Carolinas, in a
favorable position of the synoptic UL jet (left exit region). The
northern gradient of snow totals will likely be tight, and could
shift a bit north or south depending on where the jet sets up.
Winter Weather Advisories have been issued from tonight into
Saturday morning for counties along our southern tier given
fair confidence in around 2 inches of snow accumulation. More
counties could be added if a northward shift of the jet seems
more likely.

Advisory level snow is likely for the Alleghenies where a Winter
Weather Advisory remains for this evening through Saturday
evening for an additional 2-4" of snow out there with up to 6"
possible on the higher ridges. Behind the system, upslope snow
showers and gusty winds will continue. Considerably blowing and
drifting snow is likely.

Elsewhere, confidence is increasing for light snow accumulation
(1-1.5 inches) for most of the area Friday night into Saturday
morning. The northern Shenandoah Valley is expected to get the
least snow, in the shadow of the Alleghenies. Regardless of
amount, fresh snow on top of the previous (and likely now icy in
many spots) snowpack will require extra caution when out and
about.
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10 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I see no change from a few days ago. Models seem to have done pretty good. It still looks like a 1-2" deal east and south east of 95. I'd lean more towards flurries for the NW crew. Looks like high clouds are already moving in. Hopefully clouds hold temps down today. 

Would absolutely love to see high temperatures kept below 25 today. It's been years since I've experienced that. Cold, dry, grey winter days are delightful. 

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10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Would absolutely love to see high temperatures kept below 25 today. It's been years since I've experienced that. Cold, dry, grey winter days are delightful. 

Man... before the days of the internet I thought i was the only sicko that enjoyed dark, gray, white ground and early sunsets. Nope. Here we all are together like a furry convention lol

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