Terpeast Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Been surprisingly cold since the snow/ice. Trees are still holding ice in shaded areas today. Smith mtn is frosty up top. This is the east side around noon. Most of my pics lately have been west side. There's a nice sized hawk sitting on a branch enjoying the view looking for lunch. WSW for 3-5" down here. Seems top end even with being closer to the juice but a 5" storm would be pretty damm awesome. This one's yours, Bob. Enjoy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 It's only fair to consider the high end hot off the presses from the impeccable 21Z RAP. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025010921&fh=45&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=snku_acc-imp&m=rap 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Been surprisingly cold since the snow/ice. Trees are still holding ice in shaded areas today. Smith mtn is frosty up top. This is the east side around noon. Most of my pics lately have been west side. There's a nice sized hawk sitting on a branch enjoying the view looking for lunch. WSW for 3-5" down here. Seems top end even with being closer to the juice but a 5" storm would be pretty damm awesome. Wow...that's a beautiful scene and shot, Bob!! Love the transition from the blue sky, to the whiteish-gray snow/ice, to the green more in the foreground! And yeah, I see that hawk! Hope you score some good snow from this event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: This one's yours, Bob. Enjoy! Appreciate it. Been a long wait to see this area with a cold blanket of snow. I'll take 100s of pics heh. I'm not seeing a high chance at 3-5" widespread. That's 10:1 and higher end of qpf forecasts. Airmass is super dry too so virga and stuff. Our penhook place is at 930' so less virga but still..... virga... lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It's only fair to consider the high end hot off the presses from the impeccable 21Z RAP. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025010921&fh=45&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=snku_acc-imp&m=rap LOL. That model just seems to take reasonable snowfall amounts and multiply it by 1.5 or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Storm is over performing south of us, Dallas into Little Rock. Maybe we squeeze out a 2-4 type event. Definitely a WWA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: LOL. That model just seems to take reasonable snowfall amounts and multiply it by 1.5 or more. Isn't great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Hrr not far from Rap. Lol https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025010918&fh=48&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Most of the recent model runs have a bit more QPF through the Eastern Panhandle than further south in the Valley. Not sure what they are picking up on, but hope it’s right. It means the difference between a dusting and an inch+ here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Storm is over, performing south of us, Dallas into Little Rock. Maybe we squeeze out a 2-4 type event. Definitely a WWA 2-4 type. Pretty routine around here. Everyone other day… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Storm is over, performing south of us, Dallas into Little Rock. Maybe we squeeze out a 2-4 type event. Definitely a WWA Ya Little Rock isn’t even supposed to really snow till 9pm according to NWS hourlies and they are getting smoked right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ya Little Rock isn’t even supposed to really snow till 9pm according to NWS hourlies and they are getting smoked right now Gotta love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 2-4 type. Pretty routine around here. Everyone other day… Snow town, when was the last time we’ve seen snow just sit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbook Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 For those of us who enjoy radar hallucinations, it's looking good so far: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-southcentral-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Storm is over performing south of us, Dallas into Little Rock. Maybe we squeeze out a 2-4 type event. Definitely a WWAI’ve seen worse vort passes here. This always felt like the type of system that could spruce up towards gametime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, Another Field said: Where did you find this? Never seen it before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: I’ve seen worse vort passes here. This always felt like the type of system that could spruce up towards gametime. Watch this thing become a 3" - 5" event last minute. 6 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Another Field Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Another Field Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, yoda said: Where did you find this? Never seen it before This is the Iowa State meteogram generator. Part of the bufkit warehouse. https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kbwi&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, Another Field said: This is the Iowa State meteogram generator. Part of the bufkit warehouse. https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kbwi&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on Thanks! Bookmark added 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 21 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Snow town, when was the last time we’ve seen snow just sit Where is that old lady meme from Titanic…been that long. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Watch this thing become a 3" - 5" event last minute. The vibe with this storm has felt sorta similar to last years storms which trended worse in the medium range then got brought back short range 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I am really thinking this event turns into a Jan 16, 2024 type of thing where it gets much better last minute. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, bncho said: I am really thinking this event turns into a Jan 16, 2024 type of thing where it gets much better last minute. Jan 25 2000. A day that will live in infamy. Not sure that can happen again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Jan 25 2000. A day that will live in infamy. Not sure that can happen again I don’t think it can ever happen to that magnitude again given our advances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: I don’t think it can ever happen to that magnitude again given our advances I’ll never forget waking up that next morning to a foot of snow. With drifts of 3 feet plus. No plows came through until the afternoon because they didn’t know. What a scene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Jan 25 2000. A day that will live in infamy. Not sure that can happen again I don't konw what that is. Could you enlighten me, please? EDIT: I now know that it was a surprise blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, bncho said: I don't konw what that is. Could you enlighten me, please? You probably were -10 then. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: You probably were -10 then. That is 100% correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, bncho said: I don't konw what that is. Could you enlighten me, please? This was an event that was "well forecast" to slide south of DC proper. However, it became obvious the night before that something was seriously off with the forecast. The radar did not match the model guidance at all the night before,. The upper air presentation was also far more robust than what guidance was predicting. Ultimately, locations east of US 15 wound up with over 6" of snow, and several spots east of I-95 topped a foot. Link for more details: https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2000/25-Jan-00.html This event does not look like that event all all. I would say that Jan 25, 2000 and Jan 27, 2011 events were the two biggest "boom" scenarios for snow in these parts. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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