Solution Man Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 2:17 PM, BristowWx said: Ok. That looks like snow. Good very good Expand The old travelers advisory type deal…We take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 QPF maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 2:31 PM, CAPE said: Expand Gimme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 2:35 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Gimme Expand Let's close that little snow hole over my house, and we'll call it a deal. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I like the 3k NAM bumped up precip but soundings do not support >10:1 ratios IMO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 2:39 PM, WxUSAF said: I like the 3k NAM bumped up precip but soundings do not support >10:1 ratios IMO.You think better than tender one or worse?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Here's Pivotal's Kuchera 3K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 2:45 PM, mitchnick said: Here's Pivotal's Kuchera 3K Expand Getting back to something respectable hopefully. Would like to see it keep going this way. I don't expect much from the lower res globals on this leading in, Euro the only one I'd use as guidance given it's skill & res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 2:39 PM, WxUSAF said: I like the 3k NAM bumped up precip but soundings do not support >10:1 ratios IMO. Expand Yea, for my yard, more than half of the modest qpf is waa/warm front. A colder/weaker but similar setup to the last one. 10:1 with waa is top end. Lift is weak/modest in the cold side too. Snow growth will unlikely be optimal so 10:1 on the cold side is prob top end too. Some of the juicier runs this AM are sweet but I'm feeling conservative here. Topping 4" even with .4 qpf is unlikely. Not complaining. Still totally stoked to see this area with a fresh blanket of cold snow. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 1:44 PM, Warm Nose said: If we can get the norther vort to weaken a bit we can get a slight QPF bump ... I like the trend Expand I still believe this to be a 2-4” event for our area based on history and developing Synoptics 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Imma wait for backup. We are talking the NAM beyond 48 hours. I have no faith. If we get an inch, we'd be lucky. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Special Weather Statement Warning for the entire region. Please move your cars until the expiration of the statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 2:53 PM, stormtracker said: Imma wait for backup. We are talking the NAM beyond 48 hours. I have no faith. If we get an inch, we'd be lucky. Expand Hey now, precip moves over DC h39 and the 3k shows similar. Not like they weren't off by a mile the other day or anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 2:53 PM, stormtracker said: Imma wait for backup. We are talking the NAM beyond 48 hours. I have no faith. If we get an inch, we'd be lucky. Expand Ya till a non American model supports meh. Let’s see if Rgem makes a move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 2:45 PM, WhiteoutMD said: You think better than tender one or worse? . Expand For metro areas probably 9-10:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 2:53 PM, stormtracker said: Imma wait for backup. We are talking the NAM beyond 48 hours. I have no faith. If we get an inch, we'd be lucky. Expand Changes on both Nams and the Hrrr ocurr during the first 24 hours and continue thereafter. I agree with being skeptical, but we're not relying on change to start 48hrs+ this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 2:31 PM, CAPE said: Expand SOLD STICK HOLD BUY PLEASE 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Rgem about the same. 1” or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Rgem is snow showers at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 3:05 PM, soadforecasterx said: Rgem is snow showers at best Expand RGEM has been getting slightly wetter each run and ICON would support 1 to MAYBE 2 inches across the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 FWIW, SREF (which was very tightly packed around 0-0.2" of QPF yesterday) now has a bunch of juicier solutions ranging .06" to 0.57" of QPF for DCA. WPC 95th percentile though...not seeing those higher end solutions. Big sad face for this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 3:05 PM, TSSN+ said: Rgem about the same. 1” or less Expand Remember how dry the Rgem was for us over the weekend? It was the driest until the end when it finally awoke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2-4" is the bar for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 2:45 PM, mitchnick said: Here's Pivotal's Kuchera 3K Expand https://kaosfactory.github.io/assets/music/storm.mp3 Music for dramatic effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 3:11 PM, mitchnick said: Remember how dry the Rgem was for us over the weekend? It was the driest until the end when it finally awoke. Expand Had me in max 2-4” and I got 3” it did pretty good imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 3:15 PM, KAOS said: 2-4" is the bar for me. Expand Don't do that to yourself man. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 3:17 PM, KAOS said: https://kaosfactory.github.io/assets/music/storm.mp3 Music for dramatic effect. Expand Although IMBY is just slightly off screen in that shot, I see what looks like 6+ lollies close by. My heart says yes, my mind says to temper that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Never understood the concept of having a bar for snow. So what happens if the bar isn't reached? Call a bust? Tantrum? Kick puppies? Or go to an actual bar and get hammered maybe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 3:23 PM, CAPE said: Never understood the concept of having a bar for snow. So what happens if the bar isn't reached? Call a bust? Tantrum? Kick puppies? Or go to an actual bar and get hammered maybe. Expand Wait I need an excuse to do that? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 3:23 PM, CAPE said: Never understood the concept of having a bar for snow. So what happens if the bar isn't reached? Call a bust? Tantrum? Kick puppies? Or go to an actual bar and get hammered maybe. Expand If I don't get an inch I'm going to troll Justin Berk like I always do. It's how I cope. 1 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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