Bob Chill Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 4:50 AM, WEATHER53 said: And we did say some hits of real cold but this looks longer lasting than I thought. Great assessment from you in October. Expand It's pretty interesting really. If we stay cold d10+ it will be for different reasons. So we currently have a pretty epic/classic block period that looks to relax into *potentially* a +AO and deeply negative EPO. It's like a highlight reel of the large scale longwave patterns that bring us cold temps and maybe ok snow lol. Historically, a progressive -EPO isn't something we want for snowfall but the 2013-15 stretch is either a clue that it's more favorable nowadays or it was lucky AF and a return to regularly scheduled programming of warm/wet -> cold/dry is more likely lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Hate to mention the Hrrr, but it's weakening the northern vert over the last 3 6hr runs. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 1:30 PM, mitchnick said: Hate to mention the Hrrr, but it's weakening the northern vert over the last 3 6hr runs. Expand So, good or bad thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 1:36 PM, Eskimo Joe said: So, good or bad thing? Expand It's been messing up the southern stream, so I would expect an improvement in precip. Look at the larger area of yellow and how it's further north on that loop. But we all know, there could always be something else to wreck it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 From what I under stand that north vort is what is killing off the moisture. We Keep weaking and getting that north vort out the way. The better our chances at at 1-3/2-4 event. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 If we can get the norther vort to weaken a bit we can get a slight QPF bump ... I like the trend 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 That's better than most, but it's the Hrrr. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Nam doing the same thing as Hrrr thru 24hrs. Will it matter? We'll see in a few. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 NAM looking better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Loving the trends so far day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 My bar is 1". Most models give northern MD around .1 qpf. Maybe we can juice it up a little over the next 24 hours 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 1:47 PM, mitchnick said: That's better than most, but it's the Hrrr. Expand Shows the Stevens City desert zone well...@EastCoast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Bulk of precip looks north of 6z on nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 12z Nam has 1006 slp in eastern TN while 0z was 1008. 06 in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Ok https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025010912&fh=39&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 2:12 PM, mitchnick said: 12z Nam has 1006 slp in eastern TN while 0z was 1008. 06 in between. Expand northern energy just a tad held back from 6z from what I can tell. Small improvements there can get us the extra tenth of QPF I believe. And MAG up in the cpa forum said that there should be good temps in the growth zone for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 2:13 PM, DDweatherman said: northern energy just a tad held back from 6z from what I can tell. Small improvements there can get us the extra tenth of QPF I believe. And MAG up in the cpa forum said that there should be good temps in the growth zone for this. Expand Improving, ok we could get sneaky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Much better relatively speaking what it was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 2:12 PM, mitchnick said: Ok https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025010912&fh=39&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Expand Ok. That looks like snow. Good very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Killing northern stream definitely the ticket. Let's hope other modeling joins the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Waiting on maps but nam looks like a 2-4 type deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 2:18 PM, T. August said: Waiting on maps but nam looks like a 2-4 type deal Expand It is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 2:13 PM, DDweatherman said: northern energy just a tad held back from 6z from what I can tell. Small improvements there can get us the extra tenth of QPF I believe. And MAG up in the cpa forum said that there should be good temps in the growth zone for this. Expand NS vorticity with a more "constructive" interaction here compare to previous run. Digs some energy in instead of it all riding overtop. Better outcome. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 11 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 2:20 PM, CAPE said: NS vorticity with a more "constructive" interaction here compare to previous run. Digs some energy in instead of it all riding overtop. Better outcome. Expand I think it has a lot to do with orientation in this case doesn't it? Comes in more on the backside dig wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3k looking better too but not finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 2:21 PM, DDweatherman said: I think it has a lot to do with orientation in this case doesn't it? Comes in more on the backside dig wise. Expand Yes and earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 2:22 PM, mitchnick said: 3k looking better too but not finished. Expand Agreed, N/S a bit west and bringing out the SS a bit quicker. Looks similar to 12k to be honest through 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 2:21 PM, mitchnick said: Expand Looking good for the Northern Neck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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