stormtracker Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, yoda said: Hr 54? Sounding says snow at DCA I don't doubt the sounding...I just don't see any precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 It does drop over an inch in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3k. Sold 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Am I looking at the right NAM? Is the moderate to heavy snow in the room with us? Not sure about heavy, but does show snow in 51 and 54 frames on 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, stormtracker said: I don't doubt the sounding...I just don't see any precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 SREf beefed up a bit fwiw 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Pretty simple forecast here. 0.5-2" for basically everyone at this juncture. Not really much room for boom potential. Boom is probably 2-3", so there might be some WWA's that come from this one. I won't even be here for any of it, so please enjoy any flakes that fall. I will be living vicariously 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Type of storm that seems to crawl back as we get closer. Maybe we can pull off a 1-3” event after all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Gfs is probably gonna suck bc the fv3 does and they are usually similar. Stronger southern wave means less moisture transport into our area. We’re actually better off now with a weaker wave that allows moisture to stream north along the trough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChillinIt Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, TSSN+ said: Type of storm that seems to crawl back as we get closer. Maybe we can pull off a 1-3” event after all. Indeed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 hours ago, HighStakes said: Every good winter has at least couple misses. Goes with the territory. Gotta be patient. If an area wide 1-2 is one of our misses consider that a win. 100% this. Besides, it's more than the winter of 22-23. Two years ago we'd have been dying for something like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Type of storm that seems to crawl back as we get closer. Maybe we can pull off a 1-3” event after all. Trended worse and then trended better within a day or two. Exactly like Jan 16, 2024. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 The little weekend thing that could 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 EPS has been slowly ticking NW too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 If the totals for this hold DC will have more snow than last year before the anniversary of the first measurable snow for that season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 9 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: If the totals for this hold DC will have more snow than last year before the anniversary of the first measurable snow for that season. In the La Nina thread you disposed of this winter a long time ago. Thank god we're in the timeline where you're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, bncho said: In the La Nina thread you disposed of this winter a long time ago. Thank god we're in the timeline where you're wrong. In fairness the models showed crappy patterns until abruptly changing in late November. 22-23 was among the top analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 33 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: In fairness the models showed crappy patterns until abruptly changing in late November. 22-23 was among the top analogs. Yeah, I'm not trying to take a stab at you. Nobody expected this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 18 minutes ago, bncho said: Yeah, I'm not trying to take a stab at you. Nobody expected this. I disagree On 10/12/2024 at 8:10 AM, Bob Chill said: Predicting nina climo with a warmish background is a pretty safe and easy guess this year. My problem with that is over the last 5-10 years there has been an against the grain longwave feature more often than not and few if any point it out in advance. Mega epos, ninos strangely behaving like Nina's and vice versa producing confusing periods of met winter, pac jets on meth, and all that jazz. So what's it going to be this year? What's the key unusual feature(s) that will rear its head? I'm not a big fan of right for the wrong reasons with snowfall. Personally, I'd much rather see a long ranger blow the snow side of forecast but nail the red headed stepchild in the upper levels. That's a show of deeper skills and ability to think critically no matter what books and other people say (IMHO only ofc). Far easier said than done but we're in a string of winters with unexpected dominent LW features. There seems to be a propensity to buck climo. Chaos or more volatile climate? Beats me but things going as planned seems to be no longer part of the plan. Hahaha lol I'll take a crack at it.... No deep analysis here. Just intuition and observation. In a nutshell, I think the -epo is coming back. That doesn't mean easy snow without precise alignment. If anything it favors cold enough for snow but it doesn't want to snow lol. Below normal temps for DJF are never coming easy again for large swaths of the NH I don't think. Oceans are fighting that. But cold outbreaks in the east are always possible. I expect some in each month of DJF. Storm track is always a problem so it will be again but my intuition says there will be some setups that look more like a nino than a nina. A hangover of sorts. I don't expect an active or hibernating STJ but i do believe it will be present at times and briefly remind us of a nino. Lastly, I have a hunch we get some blocking and it will include Dec. Doesn't mean cold and snow. Just means tracking won't be boring or hopeless. On the balance I believe this winter will continue being weird and make people scratch heads but in the end it will be acceptable. That's all I got. 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I disagree And we did say some hits of real cold but this looks longer lasting than I thought. Great assessment from you in October. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 euro 1-2". Timed perfectly overnight for a fresh bed of snow on top of brown snow. snow on snow...we take 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 06z NAM increased qpf and snow amounts a bit 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 LWX calling for 1-2 inches in their morning AFD FXUS61 KLWX 090826 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 326 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cyclonic flow will continue across the area through Thursday. High pressure will build overhead on Friday. An area of low pressure will track to our south Friday night into Saturday. High pressure will build back in for Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Upslope snow showers continue this morning along the Alleghenies, and Winter Storm Warnings/Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect until late this morning. Strong NW winds persist as well, and combined with temperatures in the teens and single digits in the mountains (including the Blue Ridge), sub- zero wind chills are expected through the day. Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect until mid-morning for apparent temperatures near 10-15 below zero. To the east of the mountains, dry conditions are expected with sunny skies. Cold temperatures continue despite the sunshine as Arctic high pressure builds in. High temperatures struggle to breach the freezing while wind chills sit in the teens and 20s. Lows tonight fall into the teens with single digit wind chills. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure overhead will slide east Friday while an elongated longwave upper trough digs into the Southeast US. Guidance has been very consistent with taking an associated surface low south of our area and then off the coast of the Carolinas. With this track, the bulk of precipitation associated with this system will also fall to our south. Confidence is increasing for light snow accumulation (1-2 inches) for most of the area Friday night into Saturday morning. Upslope snow could continue along the Alleghenies into Saturday afternoon/evening, totals closer to 2-4 inches. Temperatures remain in the 20s to low 30s across the area, so this will be in addition to any existing snowpack. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Latest blend 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 My point and click is calling for 1-3" tomorrow night. I'm pumped 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 LWX calling for 1-2 inches in their morning AFD FXUS61 KLWX 090826AFDLWXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC326 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2025.SYNOPSIS...Cyclonic flow will continue across the area through Thursday.High pressure will build overhead on Friday. An area of lowpressure will track to our south Friday night into Saturday.High pressure will build back in for Sunday and Monday.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...Upslope snow showers continue this morning along theAlleghenies, and Winter Storm Warnings/Winter Weather Advisoriesremain in effect until late this morning. Strong NW windspersist as well, and combined with temperatures in the teens andsingle digits in the mountains (including the Blue Ridge), sub-zero wind chills are expected through the day. Cold WeatherAdvisories remain in effect until mid-morning for apparenttemperatures near 10-15 below zero.To the east of the mountains, dry conditions are expected withsunny skies. Cold temperatures continue despite the sunshine asArctic high pressure builds in. High temperatures struggle tobreach the freezing while wind chills sit in the teens and 20s.Lows tonight fall into the teens with single digit wind chills.&&.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...High pressure overhead will slide east Friday while anelongated longwave upper trough digs into the Southeast US.Guidance has been very consistent with taking an associatedsurface low south of our area and then off the coast of theCarolinas. With this track, the bulk of precipitation associatedwith this system will also fall to our south. Confidence isincreasing for light snow accumulation (1-2 inches) for most ofthe area Friday night into Saturday morning. Upslope snow couldcontinue along the Alleghenies into Saturday afternoon/evening,totals closer to 2-4 inches. Temperatures remain in the 20s tolow 30s across the area, so this will be in addition to anyexisting snowpack.While it stings a bit seeing warnings and watches from Oklahoma to Kentucky to VA (that trajectory typically means good news for us) I’ll certainly take a nice 1-2” to refresh the snowpack a bit in what will be our third snowfall in the past week or so with cold temps to keep it around. Been a far cry from the dead ratter winter many of us were expecting early on. Brief lull in our chances coming up but about 10 days out from another window of opportunity. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Latest blend Any time for long range tidbits ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, dailylurker said: My point and click is calling for 1-3" tomorrow night. I'm pumped GFS/3km NAM combo is suggestive of 2"+ potential in some areas. Most other guidance a coating to an inch or so. My forecast has a max of 1.5". Probably about right. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 20 minutes ago, CAPE said: GFS/3km NAM combo is suggestive of 2"+ potential in some areas. Most other guidance a coating to an inch or so. My forecast has a max of 1.5". Probably about right. It should give our snowpack a fresh sparkle and make Saturday morning a nice hiking opportunity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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