JenkinsJinkies Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 When Nashville gets more snow than us… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, Paleocene said: GFS looks similar to NAM - good deal for central/southern VA. And lower eastern shore. above Fredericksburg...sorry not that much. But i'll take my 2" Shows a 1-3 type deal for DC south and east. Juice it up a little as we get close to game time and it could be a respectable advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demeter Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 6 minutes ago, Paleocene said: GFS looks similar to NAM - good deal for central/southern VA. And lower eastern shore. above Fredericksburg...sorry not that much. But i'll take my 2" This is an improvement for my area. Just looking for a coating. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12 minutes ago, Paleocene said: GFS looks similar to NAM - good deal for central/southern VA. And lower eastern shore. above Fredericksburg...sorry not that much. But i'll take my 2" Are these models having a bad day? What's with the weird jagged edges in Georgia and the Carolinas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, adelphi_sky said: Are these models having a bad day? What's with the weird jagged edges in Georgia and the Carolinas? yeah they didn't have their coffee yet. I think that is where sleet/ZR is modeled. Often ends up looking weird between precip types on the margins. If you look at the ZR map, could be a bad ice storm down in the GA--> carolina piedmont zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 17 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said: Are these models having a bad day? What's with the weird jagged edges in Georgia and the Carolinas? It's Georgia and South Carolina, snow there is a unicorn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 The guidance has been incredibly good with this. The comments about "how are they so far off" is skewed by the fact we pay attention to the outlier runs that show some crazy snowstorm more than the fact 90% of all the guidance has been indicating this was the most likely outcome since 150 hours out. Those few runs of the worst global model (the gfs has really been a total train wreck lately, mostly because the other global systems have had major upgrades in recent years and it's fallen way behind) really skewed perception but the majority depiction across guidance all along was this outcome with a chance of a very minor event from some moisture streaming north along a positive tilted trough but the STJ wave getting sheared out south of us. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The guidance has been incredibly good with this. The comments about "how are they so far off" is skewed by the fact we pay attention to the outlier runs that show some crazy snowstorm more than the fact 90% of all the guidance has been indicating this was the most likely outcome since 150 hours out. Those few runs of the worst global model (the gfs has really been a total train wreck lately, mostly because the other global systems have had major upgrades in recent years and it's fallen way behind) really skewed perception but the majority depiction across guidance all along was this outcome with a chance of a very minor event from some moisture streaming north along a positive tilted trough but the STJ wave getting sheared out south of us. This right here, the blizzard was a long shot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The guidance has been incredibly good with this. The comments about "how are they so far off" is skewed by the fact we pay attention to the outlier runs that show some crazy snowstorm more than the fact 90% of all the guidance has been indicating this was the most likely outcome since 150 hours out. Those few runs of the worst global model (the gfs has really been a total train wreck lately, mostly because the other global systems have had major upgrades in recent years and it's fallen way behind) really skewed perception but the majority depiction across guidance all along was this outcome with a chance of a very minor event from some moisture streaming north along a positive tilted trough but the STJ wave getting sheared out south of us. The potential hecs pattern by the following weekend looks more interesting anyway. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12 minutes ago, 87storms said: The potential hecs pattern by the following weekend looks more interesting anyway. Yea the period around Jan 20 looks very promising to me. Don't let my minor disappointment over getting fringed and now the next 10 days looking kinda boring dissuade anyone. We had to wait a LONG time to score big a few times (and some places in this sub already scored). 1996 we waited around for weeks of a great blocking pattern before the Jan blizzard. 2011 we suffered for a whole month before that storm finally hit. We remember the snowstorms from good patterns and tend to forget the weeks of cold dry boring that is just as common in the types of patters we need to get snow. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 North south and west of us but not on us. I don’t think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 hours ago, TowsonTownT said: We need all we can get, this sunshine is wreaking havoc on my base layer of snow! That's why you pile the dendies real high! Can't do a thing about the sun so shovel every walk, road, pile it up! Leave no flake behind! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea the period around Jan 20 looks very promising to me. Don't let my minor disappointment over getting fringed and now the next 10 days looking kinda boring dissuade anyone. We had to wait a LONG time to score big a few times (and some places in this sub already scored). 1996 we waited around for weeks of a great blocking pattern before the Jan blizzard. 2011 we suffered for a whole month before that storm finally hit. We remember the snowstorms from good patterns and tend to forget the weeks of cold dry boring that is just as common in the types of patters we need to get snow. 2010 was similar. We had the great storm in December, but then it got very cold and dry for the rest of the month. Finally got one of the best weeks in winter history around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Euro following the slightly more amp'd trend, but sadly it won't help with that northern vort coming to squash it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, WEATHER53 said: North south and west of us but not on us. I don’t think so Blame the apps. That moisture streaming SW to NE isn't going to survive the 4500 ft mountains to our southwest without any dynamic mechanism. The TN valley and then into WV can do fine with a simple gulf moisture stream because they don't have that issue. We would need some mid level forcing from a NS SW or a better closer developed STJ wave to reintroduce moisture transport after the mountains shred whats coming from the southwest and in this case we have neither, unfortunately. Our best hope to get a little surprise might be some energy from the NS activating some minor banding along the trough axis as it crosses but right now guidance takes that feature to our NW and we are left in between that and the STJ wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, psuhoffman said: Blame the apps. That moisture streaming SW to NE isn't going to survive the 4500 ft mountains to our southwest without any dynamic mechanism. The TN valley and then into WV can do fine with a simple gulf moisture stream because they don't have that issue. We would need some mid level forcing from a NS SW or a better closer developed STJ wave to reintroduce moisture transport after the mountains shred whats coming from the southwest and in this case we have neither, unfortunately. Our best hope to get a little surprise might be some energy from the NS activating some minor banding along the trough axis as it crosses but right now guidance takes that feature to our NW and we are left in between that and the STJ wave. It’s not juiced but its angle of approach historically gets it to us. Expect 2” north beltway and north and 3-4 south of beltway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rollenwiese Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 31 minutes ago, Jebman said: That's why you pile the dendies real high! Can't do a thing about the sun so shovel every walk, road, pile it up! Leave no flake behind! Well I love this term thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 27 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: It’s not juiced but its angle of approach historically gets it to us. Expect 2” north beltway and north and 3-4 south of beltway I'd take 2 inches. Freshen up the snowpack so it can stay another day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 New thread killed this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, bncho said: I'd take 2 inches. Freshen up the snowpack so it can stay another day or two. Right now the pattern trumps models which are not current pattern compliant . Things are unusual now with the cold and snow and I don’t think that changes this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: New thread killed this In fairness to the new thread, this badboy was cooked yesterday. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 inch and I will be satisfied. like a can of decorating snow on what we have. we can muster up that I think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said: North south and west of us but not on us. I don’t think so Sounds like my typical night at the bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 40 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: New thread killed this Closing that thread has been shown to be favorable to future modeling. Just sayin' ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I canceled my flight back after 12z, so if this comes back to life, we’ll know who the problem is. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: New thread killed this Keep it up, we're gonna end up with one big super cluster F thread eventually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3K NAM looks decent at the end of its run, and we all know how flawlessly it performed earlier this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 10 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: 3K NAM looks decent at the end of its run, and we all know how flawlessly it performed earlier this week. Is that sarcasm? Doesn’t look decent to me… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Well decent is a relative term for this system. I'll be pleased to get a fresh dusting on top of my snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: I'll be pleased to get a fresh dusting on top of my snowpack. That is a realistic expectation imo. And snow on snow is always cool. Only thing is it is coming overnight. So cant even watch snow tv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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