1/11/25: The little weekend thing.

[dailylurker]

Since the weekend is only a couple days away I figured we could discuss the little event this Saturday here instead of the LR thread. The gfs didn't look bad this morning. A small event, especially east of DC still looks to be on the table. 

[87storms]

Stat padder incoming

[WxUSAF]

Just now, 87storms said:

Stat padder incoming

For a normal winter in these parts, we need 4-6 of these type of events. Every flake counts! Leave no flake behind!

[Bob Chill]

I'm rootin hard for a nice event in my old stomping ground. Why? Because it means my new stomping ground is doing even better. 

[Benjamn3]

I’m excited for this little event. Get a few fresh inches ontop of my skating rink. 

[mattie g]

Once I accepted that 57" of powder was off the table, I decided that a 1-3" event would do just fine.

I hope the folks in NY feel the same.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Pretty sure all players are onshore now, or close enough, so 12z runs are probably the last opportunity for notable changes, if any.

The boom potential is prob just simple moisture transport. How juicy can it get before deteriorating upper levels? Neutral or neg tilt seems near impossible at this point so just need the slug to be coherent as it pulls north. Won't be fun watching it weaken as it approaches but not much you can do about it 

[RevWarReenactor]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The boom potential is prob just simple moisture transport. How juicy can it get before deteriorating upper levels? Neutral or neg tilt seems near impossible at this point so just need the slug to be coherent as it pulls north. Won't be fun watching it weaken as it approaches but not much you can do about it 

Looks like the weakening will happen overnight. So just sleep thru it. Wakeup and get what you get. Maybe some mood flakes. 

[CAPE]

Latest Natty blend for reference. See which way it goes after the 12z runs.

[Warm Nose]

Let's just get on with cancelling this thread so we can get some actual snow 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Snow-on-snow-on-snow for me, I'll take anything.

[BlizzardNole]

I'm looking for this to look like a nuthin-burger until the last minute when it turns into a surprise 2-4 like last January

[Ravens94]

Fv3 is amped up way more then 0z

[Paleocene]

Not NAM'd

 

Unless you're @Bob Chill

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

NAM has a nice band of 4 inches of snow from the developing coastal, pushed a little further north this run.   Richmond might score with it as it looks now.

[Warm Nose]

4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

NAM has a nice band of 4 inches of snow from the developing coastal, pushed a little further north this run.   Richmond might score with it as it looks now.

If they do they might be without water for another week and a half 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Grasping at straws here but the 3K nam at 60 is more amped than 6z.

[JB Fins]

12 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Not NAM'd

 

Unless you're @Bob Chill

 

Short Pump says hello.

[TowsonTownT]

We need all we can get, this sunshine is wreaking havoc on my base layer of snow!

[Bob Chill]

37 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Not NAM'd

 

Unless you're @Bob Chill

 

 

Things haven't wavered here much. Different perspective than what you guys are looking for. That said, this is an overrunning system more than anything. Moisture streaming from the SW with modest lift in the general MA area. Would take very little to get the 2-4 line running thru at least DC. If models keep adding to the northern extent today and tomorrow, it's unlikely for them to go poof again.

[rjvanals]

ICON and RGEM shred any precip before it gets to DC 

[adelphi_sky]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Things haven't wavered here much. Different perspective than what you guys are looking for. That said, this is an overrunning system more than anything. Moisture streaming from the SW with modest lift in the general MA area. Would take very little to get the 2-4 line running thru at least DC. If models keep adding to the northern extent today and tomorrow, it's unlikely for them to go poof again.

It is interesting that from the last storm, models were wavering like windshield wipers. With this storm, the are more certain. Is this an easy or normal pattern? 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

It is interesting that from the last storm, models were wavering like windshield wipers. With this storm, the are more certain. Is this an easy or normal pattern? 

It's easy in the sense that it's overrunning along a boundary and not a dynamic low pressure system. This isn't really a storm as much as a modest precip shield gliding thru. Different variables and far less dynamics makes this more cut and dry 

[WesternFringe]

53 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Not NAM'd

 

Unless you're @Bob Chill

Hey, I get an inch plus as well!  

[Paleocene]

GFS running. Last hope?

[Mikeymac5306]

This thread is as useless as a 4th quarter touchdown when you're down 24. 

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

This thread is as useless as a 4th quarter touchdown when you're down 24. 

Maybe for you, northerner! I'll take my stats padding despite the loss of the blizzard.

[DDweatherman]

It’s sad that even our thread after a thread tactic probably wouldn’t save this one

[Paleocene]

GFS looks similar to NAM - good deal for central/southern VA. And lower eastern shore. above Fredericksburg...sorry not that much.  But i'll take my 2"

[rjvanals]

3 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

GFS looks similar to NAM - good deal for central/southern VA. And lower eastern shore. above Fredericksburg...sorry not that much.  But i'll take my 2"

I'd be thrilled if we can get that; the trend is not our friend at this point