Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s trying at 84h. Might try and pull a GFS at the last second and clip SE MA. Biggest problem is we’re getting inside of 60h on the key players so it gets hard to make decent sized moves on those. 

Northern s/w piece try's to dive in last minute but its late and its off the coast when it happens.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s trying at 84h. Might try and pull a GFS at the last second and clip SE MA. Biggest problem is we’re getting inside of 60h on the key players for phasing potential so it gets hard to make decent sized moves on those. 

I thought we were passed the S stream energy trail when I got relatively confident...I wasn't that worried about the N stream, but S stream regressing at the last moment changes everything.

[ROOSTA]

"She's Gone...oh-oh I. I need the devil to replace her.
Just one look in the mirror...what went wrong"
Hall and Oates

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I thought we were passed the stream energy trail when I got relatively confident...I wasn't that worried about the N stream, but S stream regressing at the last moment changes everything.

Yep that southern stream just wants to drag. If we can somehow speed it up just a tick, then I think we might be back in the game since the northern stream is trying to play ball on all guidance now…. but it gets harder to reverse trends once you get closer to the event…although we did see it in this last one when it tried to start coming north only to get shoved back south and jackpot Virginia. 

[Snowcrazed71]

Yeah... Letting this one go. To many things falling out of place with every model. 

Let's move on to the next heartbreak. Lol

[Typhoon Tip]

next series of data ingests will be sampling pac relay more properly

if there's going to be a wholesale return ( probably to something less than those 964 blue baller solutions the gfs was hawk tuahing and more middling...) it may come tonight

otherwise, the miami rule is wrong.  and the western ridge is last minute torpid.  and the nao is correcting down in the gefs derivatives - if anyone recalls, this thread's hopefuls were predicated on a rising nao ...hence, lifting the storm track up the ec.   etc... 

and also, boy, ...the meridian characteristic of the flow has not been getting anywhere close to what these ensembles were selling a couple weeks ago.  interesting...

[ineedsnow]

this is far from figured out.. just look north of Montana in canada early on ..

using pivotal since I think the maps are better to compare

[Layman]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its just leaving most of the energy behind over baja and that seems to be happening model wide now.

 

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

 

Yeah the Euro still holds way too much energy back. The issue is we are getting closer to a middle ground solution, but needed yesterday’s gfs runs to be entirely right. A middle ground solution doesn’t cut it.

Are there specific atmospheric mechanics that make or allow this to happen (I'm assuming "yes" because the models are picking up on it actually/potentially happening) that can be discerned at some reasonably defined lead time?  Or, is it something that simply just happens?

I see terms being used like "holding the energy back" or "not diving in time" etc but am curious if there's something akin to a tangible reason why.  Kind of like a block of NE Canada shunting storms eastward.  This is an obvious and easy to understand concept for me but some of the other mechanics remain elusive.  

[jbenedet]

12z GEFS is an improvement in terms of qpf. It’s warning criteria for I95 to just south of Boston.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep that southern stream just wants to drag. If we can somehow speed it up just a tick, then I think we might be back in the game since the northern stream is trying to play ball on all guidance now…. but it gets harder to reverse trends once you get closer to the event…although we did see it in this last one when it tried to start coming north only to get shoved back south and jackpot Virginia. 

Given where we are now in the timeline, this Euro run was probably about as disastrous as you would want to see. There was not even a hint of anything slightly not encouraging from the euro...not what you wanted to see. Even if we saw something encouraging, albeit tiny we could have worked with that. I am lowering my bar from 24'' to 0''. Screw winter. time for May

[ineedsnow]

I have a feeling the EPS will look better

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, Layman said:

 

Are there specific atmospheric mechanics that make or allow this to happen (I'm assuming "yes" because the models are picking up on it actually/potentially happening) that can be discerned at some reasonably defined lead time?  Or, is it something that simply just happens?

I see terms being used like "holding the energy back" or "not diving in time" etc but am curious if there's something akin to a tangible reason why.  Kind of like a block of NE Canada shunting storms eastward.  This is an obvious and easy to understand concept for me but some of the other mechanics remain elusive.  

Its just ejecting out of the SW slower at the moment, If you speed that up a bit, It allows the northern stream s/w to drop down the backside and round the base of the trough of the s/w rather then a bit ahead of it just taking a piece with it and leaving some of it behind, Instead of scooping it up, It stretches it out like pulling on a rubber band which lowers the heights out ahead of it rather then raising them.

[EastonSN+]

Euro gets an inch into Southwest Connecticut.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The northern stream looking better probably opens up the possibility of a nuisance inch or two even if the southern stream completely craps out.

Probably would favor south and west though 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, dryslot said:

Its just ejecting out of the SW slower at the moment, If you speed that up a bit, It allows the northern stream s/w to drop down the backside and round the base of the trough of the s/w rather then a bit ahead of it just taking a piece with it and leaving some of it behind, Instead of scooping it up, It stretches it out like pulling on a rubber band,

Agree, which is why it’s still worth watching, but man this is on life support. I actually think the EPS will be slightly better but we’ll see. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

I have a feeling the EPS will look better

I have a feeling tomorrow’s modeling will be different yet again. This movie ain’t done yet.   

[weathafella]

At what point do we entertain the real possibility of futility?  I mean the pattern is good but the we're in a serious slump.  Sometimes slumps are season long.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weathafella said:

At what point do we entertain the real possibility of futility?  I mean the pattern is good but the we're in a serious slump.  Sometimes slumps are season long.

Even though it was like 9F warmer....I had more snow last year to this point. Sitting here cold as f*ck and just over and 1.4" or so to show for it.

[8611Blizz]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

At what point do we entertain the real possibility of futility?  I mean the pattern is good but the we're in a serious slump.  Sometimes slumps are season long.

For me,.late February.  

[dryslot]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Agree, which is why it’s still worth watching, but man this is on life support. I actually think the EPS will be slightly better but we’ll see. 

I just keep watching when the runs start on these models @H5  and compare where the baja s/w is and its been initializing a tick or so further sw ea run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weathafella said:

At what point do we entertain the real possibility of futility?  I mean the pattern is good but the we're in a serious slump.  Sometimes slumps are season long.

I just crossed my mind today...1979-1980 is my futility year, and there is a striking resemblance...probably comes down to whether or not I get skunked on SWFE potential in Feb.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

“Feelings…nothing more than, feelings.” 

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

At what point do we entertain the real possibility of futility?  I mean the pattern is good but the we're in a serious slump.  Sometimes slumps are season long.

More like half a decade at this point. 

[8611Blizz]

True futility for boston is what, 7.5" ? That would be hard to do with KBOS near that total now.

[weathafella]

Just now, 8611Blizz said:

True futility for boston is what, 7.5" ? That would be hard to do with KBOS near that total now.

9”.  Anything below that is a new futility record.

[Layman]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its just ejecting out of the SW slower at the moment, If you speed that up a bit, It allows the northern stream s/w to drop down the backside and round the base of the trough of the s/w rather then a bit ahead of it just taking a piece with it and leaving some of it behind, Instead of scooping it up, It stretches it out like pulling on a rubber band which lowers the heights out ahead of it rather then raising them.

Is it reasonable to say what we're seeing in the evolution could be chalked up to largely a timing issue?  I'm assuming there are other mechanics at play impacting that timing but for the storm to follow a desired path to provide snow in New England, it needs to get captured as you mentioned it sent on up to our doorstep.  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said:

True futility for boston is what, 7.5" ? That would be hard to do with KBOS near that total now.

I think 9.3 for BOS. Almost did it last year. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I'm looking through the silverware drawer looking for just the right fork to stick in this one...

[dryslot]

Just some lights snows here ATT when the ULL swings thru on Saturday night/Sunday.

[weathafella]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think 9.3 for BOS. Almost did it last year. 

9.0.   We got 9.3 at BOS in 2011-12 but the 9.0 is 1936-37.