Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

They still show a lot More of the LP's to the West and Northwest. I think that's a good sign, no?

They look really good

[Snowcrazed71]

I'm really feeling if the Euro comes in too far East, this is a dead deal. I'm hoping that it at least remains the same or comes a little bit to the West. That will keep the hope alive

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, MJO812 said:

They don't follow each other anymore 

Thanks for the analysis. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie got significantly worse. Might be an ominous sign for Euro later. 

What about the very dependable UK ensembles?

[moneypitmike]

I think the flakes blowing by my window now will outnumber my this weekend.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

They were on suicide watch up north in 2015-16. But yeah once you get back to something resembling normal climo, they will always clean up and make up lost ground….2018-19 was another monster winter up in NNE while it was kind of meh down here. 

I think we are on the 7th or 8th day in a row of snow up here.  The northern spine has been getting lit up.  Even here its been snowing daily, just in really small amounts.  I think I was at 4" for the period before today and it looks like we have gotten another inch or so over night.

[dendrite]

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is annoying

No reason to look at any models past 7 days anymore. Breaks your heart.

PoPo melting down with skynet. Hate to see it. 

[DavisStraight]

4 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I think we are on the 7th or 8th day in a row of snow up here.  The northern spine has been getting lit up.  Even here its been snowing daily, just in really small amounts.  I think I was at 4" for the period before today and it looks like we have gotten another inch or so over night.

I see that on radar, Montreal area and your area is getting constant steady snow, should pile up nice the next few days.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Lot of snow showers around today north and west of here on these brisk winds.

Echoes overhead but no flakes reaching the ground.

Grandkids' locale in SNJ had 4-6 forecast, got 2-3 while Cape May - 50 miles SSE - had 6-10.  At least it's cold so the kids can wear out the snow before it melts.  Maybe the late week thing can freshen the white, though currently the PoP is higher at DCA/BWI.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Echoes overhead but no flakes reaching the ground.

Grandkids' locale in SNJ had 4-6 forecast, got 2-3 while Cape May - 50 miles SSE - had 6-10.  At least it's cold so the kids can wear out the snow before it melts.  Maybe the late week thing can freshen the white, though currently the PoP is higher at DCA/BWI.

Looking at some of the web cams in NW Maine its snow showers in those areas.

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Lot of snow showers around today north and west of here on these brisk winds.

Wind is howling at my office with flakes in the fair.  Will need to bundle up for my lunchtime walk.

[beavis1729]

24 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Atlanta about to have more snow than me by end of the week. 

And possibly most of MN, WI, SD, ND, and N IL too.  It's shockingly horrible and ridiculous, not much else to say.

As an example, Minneapolis only has 8" for the season and has had 0 snow depth since 12/28, with no snow in sight.  They've only had 9 days of snow cover so far, wiped away by the Christmas week torch.

Even INL only has 3" snow depth...just incredibly bad.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, beavis1729 said:

And possibly most of MN, WI, SD, ND, and N IL too.  It's shockingly horrible and ridiculous, not much else to say.

As an example, Minneapolis only has 8" for the season and has had 0 snow depth since 12/28, with no snow in sight.  They've only had 9 days of snow cover so far this season, wiped away by the Christmas week torch.

Even INL only has 3" snow depth...just incredibly bad.

Yeah ORD/DTW/MSP all pretty low on snow this winter so far.  Obviously BOS too

[Layman]

59 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Just goes to show how subtle differences can have large implications down stream, Going to need to wait a bit longer as i mentioned earlier.

Could this be where AI may ultimately shine?  I see it as a huge hurdle to attempt to overcome but it'll be interesting to see if improvements can be made.  

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

And possibly most of MN, WI, SD, ND, and N IL too.  It's shockingly horrible and ridiculous, not much else to say.

As an example, Minneapolis only has 8" for the season and has had 0 snow depth since 12/28, with no snow in sight.  They've only had 9 days of snow cover so far this season, wiped away by the Christmas week torch.

Even INL only has 3" snow depth...just incredibly bad.

Didn't MSP get much of that on like one storm too?

[dryslot]

Just now, Layman said:

Could this be where AI may ultimately shine?  I see it as a huge hurdle to attempt to overcome but it'll be interesting to see if improvements can be made.  

I probably can't answer that as have not looked at any AI model.

[beavis1729]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Didn't MSP get much of that on like one storm too?

Yeah, 6" on 12/19.

[SnowGoose69]

I don't think the Euro will be as flat as the UKMET.  The UKMET was a bit too flat with this last system too.  Its also missing the snow across the MA region which I think happens with the vort/jet 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah ORD/DTW/MSP all pretty low on snow this winter so far.  Obviously BOS too

During a Nina seeing those places all get skunked while DC and south clean up is beyond hysterical. 

[UnitedWx]

10 minutes ago, Layman said:

Could this be where AI may ultimately shine?  I see it as a huge hurdle to attempt to overcome but it'll be interesting to see if improvements can be made.  

With some of the people I've spoken with, they don't believe that the AI models will offer any sort of large Improvement with the computations at this point. In fact one person I spoke with believes they could cause even more confusion at times.... You have to remember it's all about data ingestion. The AI model can't just dream up the details of a shortwave halfway over the Pacific any more than any other model really

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

They don't follow each other anymore 

Sure did last night.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I don't think the Euro will be as flat as the UKMET.  The UKMET was a bit too flat with this last system too.  Its also missing the snow across the MA region which I think happens with the vort/jet 

Well, by follow...way OTS . Granted the EURO may be Andrea Gale and UK Bermuda.

[Allsnow]

13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

During a Nina seeing those places all get skunked while DC and south clean up is beyond hysterical. 

Atlanta will probably have more snow than Bos and nyc by the end of this week. What a nightmare this pattern has been 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Atlanta will probably have more snow than Bos and nyc by the end of this week. What a nightmare this pattern has been 

At least this way we don't have to be endure endless waves of West warm pool and phase 5 graphics....shove it up a different orifice; that one is inflamed-

[Allsnow]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

At least this way we don't have to be endure endless waves of West warm pool and phase 5 graphics. 

Very true. Finally a cold winter 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro looks no good at 66h. Might be slightly better than 06z but we need more than nominal trends. The bigger solutions are on life support imho. 

[dryslot]

12z Euro should be a bit better then 06z, Don't think its where we end up needing to be.

[dryslot]

Its just leaving most of the energy behind over baja and that seems to be happening model wide now.

[George001]

 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro looks no good at 66h. Might be slightly better than 06z but we need more than nominal trends. The bigger solutions are on life support imho. 

Yeah the Euro still holds way too much energy back. The issue is we are getting closer to a middle ground solution, but needed yesterday’s gfs runs to be entirely right. A middle ground solution doesn’t cut it.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z Euro should be a bit better then 06z, Don't think its where we end up needing to be.

It’s trying at 84h. Might try and pull a GFS at the last second and clip SE MA. Biggest problem is we’re getting inside of 60h on the key players for phasing potential so it gets hard to make decent sized moves on those.