Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I still think this thing has a few surprises left…she’s tricky. 

Yeah to think a potential Saturday/Saturday night event is settled on Tuesday is folly.

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So you’re off the “it’s coming train?”  

It’s gonna snow . We just don’t know big or little. You don’t know . You never quite know . It’s evolving and morphing. 

[RDRY]

CMC looking better with the pieces of northern energy.

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, RDRY said:

CMC looking better with the pieces of northern energy.

ya will definitely look better but was crap at 0z

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Even some of these shittier OP runs, don't end up terrible. I think the idea of this being an all our hit versus nothing needs to be tossed out. This could still be something that gives at least parts of the region a few inches but I don't think this is becoming a 1-2 feet or shutout type deal.

Some of these runs are becoming more northern-stream dominant as the southern stuff gets sheared while the N stream simultaneously is trying to improve and dig more. So we’re getting some middle solutions. Perhaps it morphs into something like that….but if we can speed back up that southern stream a bit, then some nukes might start showing up again too. 

[OceanStWx]

If there is anything you want to hang your weenie hat on, it's that sensitivity analysis doesn't really suggest any sort of locked in clarity until 24 to as much as 54 hours from now. 

The timing is tough because it splits the viewing window, but overall it all rides on the upper low in the Southwest. Given that it is already over land and is being sampled, the uncertainty is driven by its evolution with time.

In general it produces more robust QPF with members that lower the heights throughout the western CONUS.

[ineedsnow]

CMC still meh but better

[RDRY]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

ya will definitely looks better but was crap at 0z

Probably still time for models to incrementally drive the energy into the system in successive runs. But can't afford any steps back at this point.

[weathafella]

It seems like we're moving from Miller A to Miller B as we'll depend on the northern stream to get us theres?

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

ya will definitely look better but was crap at 0z

Yep. Improvement from 00z but when you’re improving from total garbage, there’s still work to do. A lot of the 12z solutions are very similar so far. The garbage ones from 00z got better but the decent ones haven’t. 
 

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some of these runs are becoming more northern-stream dominant as the southern stuff gets sheared while the N stream simultaneously is trying to improve and dig more. So we’re getting some middle solutions. Perhaps it morphs into something like that….but if we can speed back up that southern stream a bit, then some nukes might start showing up again too. 

The southern stream is becoming kind of a pain. Hell, they're on the fringes of a winter storm within Teas, Arkansas, and Tennessee and that whole ordeal is uncertain. Fort Worth is in a WSW but they may end up on the warmer side (just barely) and avoid much wintry precip. 

The 78-96 hour window is always a challenging one it seems with guidance when it comes to phasing situations. Not sure if there are some changes to equations or physics within models during this period but it seems to be prone to higher uncertainty when we see some decent certainty in the 96-120 hr window. 

EDIT: changed the second uncertainty to certainty in last sentence

[MJO812]

This is annoying

No reason to look at any models past 7 days anymore. Breaks your heart.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Ant is teetering…look out nyc citizens.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

This is annoying

No reason to look at any models past  24-36 hours anymore. Breaks your heart.

FYP

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is annoying

No reason to look at any models past 7 days anymore. Breaks your heart.

The southeast ridge will be here soon 

[UnitedWx]

Well at this point the way things have been going the last several days, it's almost baked in that some of the 18Z will throw some juicy bait back at everybody. The one thing that's very clear to me with all the run to run upper air changes is that out ultimate outcome is far from figured out either way Edit: Nothing like stating the obvious 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is annoying

No reason to look at any models past 7 days anymore. Breaks your heart.

We tried to tell you several times the right goalpost was more likely but you laughed at us with snow goggles on. 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The southeast ridge will be here soon 

Can keeps getting kicked.  I am convinced we never see a sustained torch this winter at this point, maybe mid February onward finally there is a change but not happening consistently so far on anything in next 2 weeks

[ineedsnow]

then the GEFS come out and keep me watching

[ineedsnow]

some huge hits wtf

[WxWatcher007]

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah (sigh)

 

[Chrisrotary12]

Atlanta about to have more snow than me by end of the week. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

then the GEFS come out and keep me watching

Exactly as predicted. All thats missing is a Stef’s are way north post from you and Tony 

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah (sigh)

 

They still show a lot More of the LP's to the West and Northwest. I think that's a good sign, no?

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the end result was slightly better than 06z for south shore and SE MA. Not a huge difference but there’s a path for warning snowfall if you give it just a little more phasing. 

That will happen bc its my least desired outcome.

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie got significantly worse. Might be an ominous sign for Euro later. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

UK takes the wave to Bermuda. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

They still show a lot More of the LP's to the West and Northwest. I think that's a good sign, no?

Yes, I’m thinking the very far east members skew the mean somewhat, but we need more from other guidance. Especially the euro in an hour. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ray can blog about 2-4 for DC again.

I want a total whiff it doesn't phase...all set parcing out the details between a dusting here and 5" in Attleboro. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie got significantly worse. Might be an ominous sign for Euro later. 

They don't follow each other anymore