Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

[CoastalWx]

Ray can blog about 2-4 for DC again.

[ORH_wxman]

Southern energy really tries to catch up at last second. N stream digs down and it’s close. Frustrating to track this event on guidance because visually I can keep seeing how damned close it is to a much bigger deal. 

[weatherwiz]

the differences in H5 between the 12z GFS yesterday and today are absolutely insane. The whole evolution of H5 from model-to-model is wild. Hardly any consistency going on. It's way too early to write this off and of course that doesn't set this in stone but these swings in H5 are so large who the hell knows what the "middle" ground is or which side of the field to lean towards

[ineedsnow]

this is still way to close not to track though

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

If it were just the ECMWF I would be more apt to toss it, with it's known bias of holding back the southwest shortwaves, but with other guidance doing it too it is tough to ignore.

Hasn't the GFS been doing that at times within a certain time range too? I recall at least a few severe setups in the Plains this past spring/early summer where something like that had an impact on how some of the events ended up performing. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Southern energy really tries to catch up at last second. N stream digs down and it’s close. Frustrating to track this event on guidance because visually I can keep seeing how damned close it is to a much bigger deal. 

It does and ends up being like 6z..maybe even ever so slightly better.

[kazimirkai]

is H5 500 mb heights?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, kazimirkai said:

is H5 500 mb heights?

Correct

[Damage In Tolland]

I’m sure the GEFS will be NW just to prolong things. And someone will post that the Srefs are way north 

[George001]

Yeah not a fan of the 12z gfs. Looks weak and shredded 

[mahk_webstah]

Its like it wants to come up the coast, but it hasn't figured out how to.

[WinterWolf]

I said it would be Wednesday before we know anything definitive, but it may actually be Thursday now.  This is a complex beast…still evolving. 

[dryslot]

Just goes to show how subtle differences can have large implications down stream, Going to need to wait a bit longer as i mentioned earlier.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

this is still way to close not to track though

Even some of these shittier OP runs, don't end up terrible. I think the idea of this being an all our hit versus nothing needs to be tossed out. This could still be something that gives at least parts of the region a few inches but I don't think this is becoming a 1-2 feet or shutout type deal.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m sure the GEFS will be NW just to prolong things. And someone will post that the Srefs are way north 

So you’re off the “it’s coming train?”  

[WinterWolf]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Even some of these shittier OP runs, don't end up terrible. I think the idea of this being an all our hit versus nothing needs to be tossed out. This could still be something that gives at least parts of the region a few inches but I don't think this is becoming a 1-2 feet or shutout type deal.

Said this a couple hrs ago..it’s morphing. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It does and ends up being like 6z..maybe even ever so slightly better.

Yeah the end result was slightly better than 06z for south shore and SE MA. Not a huge difference but there’s a path for warning snowfall if you give it just a little more phasing. 

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Hasn't the GFS been doing that at times within a certain time range too? I recall at least a few severe setups in the Plains this past spring/early summer where something like that had an impact on how some of the events ended up performing. 

I can't say whether it has been doing it a lot lately, but there is no known bias that consistently shows up with the GFS. The ECMWF readily admits that it too often holds back upper lows in the Southwest US.

[Chrisrotary12]

Can guidance just put us out of our misery already?

[weathafella]

Just remember the words of the late Richard Pryor when facing failure.  "Well fuck it then!"

[HoarfrostHubb]

Congrats ACKWaves

[jbenedet]

Kinda funny how we had pages and pages for shitta clippa's but now the most snow starved areas of the subforum are poo-pooing a 980 mb low just SE of the BM inside day 5. 

No, it ain't great but it's the best opportunity many have seen in a while down there...Not to mention zero p-type issues. Gee, when's the last time you guys saw an event like that?!

[WxWatcher007]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah not gonna happen this run. Clock is ticking faster and faster on this threat. 

I feel like we pay double for backward steps at this stage. You can clearly see the potential though. It detonates just to our east. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Can guidance just put us out of our misery already?

Lol…it’s gonna drag out for a while…she’s a nasty beotch. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Kinda funny how we had pages and pages for shitta clippa's but now the most snow starved areas of the subforum are poo-pooing a 980 mb low just SE of the BM inside day 5. 

No, it ain't great but it's the best opportunity many have seen in a while down there...

Who in the snow starved area are poo-pooing it? 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Can guidance just put us out of our misery already?

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Okay I am not a met, however, wouldn't the decaying blocking in the AO and nao regions allow this to nudge a little North? 

Forky mentioned that our storm would happen as the block decays.

 

[WinterWolf]

I still think this thing has a few surprises left…she’s tricky. 

[ineedsnow]

just looked out and its snowing wasn't expecting that

[Cyclone-68]

Hard to believe that rain storm a couple of weeks ago has been the most exciting thing to happen around here in the last few years and obviously that’s stretching it