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Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Ineedsnow is like the sunfish you kept catching at the lake off the dock when you were a kid. You’d throw it back in the lake and then it wound still get hooked when you threw the bait in a minute lat

weatherwiz
weatherwiz

can make our own 

dendrite
dendrite

PoPo melting down with skynet. Hate to see it. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Southern energy really tries to catch up at last second. N stream digs down and it’s close. Frustrating to track this event on guidance because visually I can keep seeing how damned close it is to a much bigger deal. 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

the differences in H5 between the 12z GFS yesterday and today are absolutely insane. The whole evolution of H5 from model-to-model is wild. Hardly any consistency going on. It's way too early to write this off and of course that doesn't set this in stone but these swings in H5 are so large who the hell knows what the "middle" ground is or which side of the field to lean towards

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
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  On 1/7/2025 at 3:52 PM, OceanStWx said:

If it were just the ECMWF I would be more apt to toss it, with it's known bias of holding back the southwest shortwaves, but with other guidance doing it too it is tough to ignore.

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Hasn't the GFS been doing that at times within a certain time range too? I recall at least a few severe setups in the Plains this past spring/early summer where something like that had an impact on how some of the events ended up performing. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/7/2025 at 3:58 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Southern energy really tries to catch up at last second. N stream digs down and it’s close. Frustrating to track this event on guidance because visually I can keep seeing how damned close it is to a much bigger deal. 

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It does and ends up being like 6z..maybe even ever so slightly better.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
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  On 1/7/2025 at 3:59 PM, ineedsnow said:

this is still way to close not to track though

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Even some of these shittier OP runs, don't end up terrible. I think the idea of this being an all our hit versus nothing needs to be tossed out. This could still be something that gives at least parts of the region a few inches but I don't think this is becoming a 1-2 feet or shutout type deal.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
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  On 1/7/2025 at 4:03 PM, weatherwiz said:

Even some of these shittier OP runs, don't end up terrible. I think the idea of this being an all our hit versus nothing needs to be tossed out. This could still be something that gives at least parts of the region a few inches but I don't think this is becoming a 1-2 feet or shutout type deal.

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Said this a couple hrs ago..it’s morphing. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/7/2025 at 4:01 PM, CoastalWx said:

It does and ends up being like 6z..maybe even ever so slightly better.

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Yeah the end result was slightly better than 06z for south shore and SE MA. Not a huge difference but there’s a path for warning snowfall if you give it just a little more phasing. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/7/2025 at 4:00 PM, weatherwiz said:

Hasn't the GFS been doing that at times within a certain time range too? I recall at least a few severe setups in the Plains this past spring/early summer where something like that had an impact on how some of the events ended up performing. 

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I can't say whether it has been doing it a lot lately, but there is no known bias that consistently shows up with the GFS. The ECMWF readily admits that it too often holds back upper lows in the Southwest US.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted

Kinda funny how we had pages and pages for shitta clippa's but now the most snow starved areas of the subforum are poo-pooing a 980 mb low just SE of the BM inside day 5. 

No, it ain't great but it's the best opportunity many have seen in a while down there...Not to mention zero p-type issues. Gee, when's the last time you guys saw an event like that?!

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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  On 1/7/2025 at 4:07 PM, jbenedet said:

Kinda funny how we had pages and pages for shitta clippa's but now the most snow starved areas of the subforum are poo-pooing a 980 mb low just SE of the BM inside day 5. 

No, it ain't great but it's the best opportunity many have seen in a while down there...

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Who in the snow starved area are poo-pooing it? 

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